Saracens vs Harlequins tips: Premiership predictions, rugby betting odds & free bets

Saracens vs Harlequins predictions

• Harlequins +9.5 - 8/11 with bet365
• Alex Dombrandt any time try-scorer - 11/5 with SpreadEx
• Juan Martin Gonzalez any time try-scorer - 7/4 with bet365

It’s all eyes on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday as Premiership rugby marks its return from a Six Nations-enforced hibernation in style when Saracens take on Harlequins in The Showdown 4 (3pm, ITV1). 

You have to go back to January 27 for the last time either one of these sides played, but there’s no easing back into the rigours of domestic rugby. 

With six rounds of the Premiership regular season to go, both Sarries and Quins have work to do to lock up a play-off position amid a congested top eight in the table. 

Quins are second, seven points behind leaders Northampton and only a point better off than fourth-placed Saracens, who themselves are only one point ahead of Exeter Chiefs in fifth.

Champions Saracens were wobbling slightly when the pause button was pressed on the season, losing three of their last five matches. However, they remain favourites to retain the title with betting sites and this is the time of year when the six-time Premiership winners usually come into their own. 

Rugby betting sites expect them to come out firing in the marquee fixture at Tottenham’s ground, making them eight-point favourites on the handicap.

They crushed Quins 38-10 in November’s reverse fixture, but this encounter should be a little more competitive, even if the outcome may still be the same. 

Quins can put up a fight

This is the second year in a row the London rivals have moved their game to Tottenham with Saracens winning an entertaining encounter 36-24 12 months ago. 

That was Sarries’ seventh league win in a row over Quins, who have tended to have been manhandled by Maro Itoje and co. That was the case in the first meeting between the teams when half of Saracens’ six tries came from the forwards.

That was Harlequins’ biggest defeat of the season and came during a period when they were shipping points at an alarming rate. That’s nothing new for the debonair Twickenham outfit, but they’ve tightened up since and now boast the best defence in the Premiership.

Harlequins tried to beef up in the summer, adding Dillion Lewis, Joe Launchbury and Chandler Cunningham-South, among others, and the stats say they match up well with Sarries’ pack, boasting a better scrum success rate than the champions.

Passing the eye test against a Saracens pack featuring Ben Earl, Juan Martin Gonzalez and Theo McFarland, and with Jamie George and Nick Isiekwe to come off the bench, is another matter entirely to getting some good numbers down on paper though.

Still, couple Quins' improved defence and bolstered pack with an attack that was in pretty blistering form to start the year and you can see why they are currently sat in second.

The big test now is whether they have enough to take down Saracens. Their record against the current top four casts doubt on those ambitions having already lost away to Bath and Northampton.

And this is a Saracens side building towards a big finish before Owen Farrell heads to France, potentially along with Billy Vunipola. There are certainly 'Last Dance' vibes around this Saracens team heading into the final stretch of the season. 

Sarries will be looking to build a head of steam towards a big finish and should have enough about them to chalk up a win here. 

However, it may not be by much. With the exception of their 38-17 mauling by Saracens, Harlequins haven’t lost a league game by more than eight points this year. 

Couple that with four of Saracens’ last six league wins coming by 12 points or less, the nominal home side’s inferior disciplinary record this season and Quins boasting the best away attack in the division, and Harlequins +9.5 looks worth consideration on gambling sites. For this bet to win, Harlequins either need to avoid defeat or lose by nine points or less.

Saracens vs Harlequins Tip 1: Harlequins +9.5 - 8/11 with bet365

Keep an eye out for Dombrandt dotting down

Alex Dombrandt had to play second fiddle to Earl during England's Six Nations campaign and may have a hard time wrestling that No 8 shirt away from the Saracens man after Earl was nominated for the Player of the Tournament award. 

Dombrandt missed out on last year's World Cup but was back in the squad for the Six Nations and came off the bench in England's last two games. Having worked his way back into in England coach Steve Borthwick's thinking with is form at club level, this is a good opportunity to show he deserves more game time during the summer internationals.

He has a decent try-scoring record against Saracens, scoring the opening try in Quins' last two away games against their fellow capital club. He's 16/1 on betting apps to open the scoring on Saturday for those seeking a first try-scorer bet.

The 26-year-old continues to be a regular try-scorer for Quins, scoring five times in 15 appearances across all competitions this season, and gets his hands on the ball plenty, ranking second in the entire Premiership for carries.

Dombrandt has something to prove, boasts a good record against Saracens and should see plenty of the ball, helping him to stand out among the try-scoring options.

Saracens vs Harlequins Tip 2: Alex Dombrandt any time try-scorer - 11/5 with SpreadEx

Giant Gonzalez chasing more tries

With both teams virtually at full strength - there's no Itoje in the Saracens squad - there's no shortage of potential try-scorers for a fixture that tends to produce plenty of tries with the last four games producing a minimum of seven tries per match.

Farrell scoring on his 250th appearance for Saracens would make a nice story but he's only got one try to his name all season and given the way their forwards dominated the first game, Sarries may try to employ a similar game plan. 

And when you've got players like Earl, McFarland, Billy Vunipola and Juan Martin Gonzalez in the pack, why wouldn't you try to overpower Quins? 

Gonzalez scored in the first meeting with Harlequins, part of a brilliant season for the Argentina flanker since his move from London Irish. 

He's scored six tries in 12 appearances for his current club and was in excellent form before the break, scoring in each of his last two outings. If Saracens' forwards can get on top, the Pumas ace could pounce for another score.

Saracens vs Harlequins Tip 3: Juan Martin Gonzalez any time try-scorer - 7/4 with bet365

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