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Italy vs England predictions
- Under 51.5 points - 10/11 with bet365
- England -7 first half handicap - Evens with BetVictor
- Jamie George to score a try at any time - 6/4 with Betway
England’s run to the semi-finals of the Rugby World Cup has restored some faith in Steve Borthwick’s team and they are fully expected to begin their Six Nations campaign with a win over Italy (2.15pm, ITV1).
The Red Rose came home from France last autumn with the bronze medal, exceeding pre-World Cup expectations following a torrid build-up and underwhelming 2023 Six Nations.
For the third Six Nations in a row, England won just two games and finished 17 points behind champions Ireland.
Rugby betting sites still see England as relative outsiders for the title, their price of 13/2 to win a first championship since 2020 being significantly larger than France (11/10) and Ireland (7/4), the top two in outright market.
But Borthwick’s men have the chance to get off to a strong start in Rome and build some momentum for a title push, something they haven’t managed recently after losing each of their last four opening Six Nations games.
Gambling sites don’t expect them to slip up in Rome though against an Italy side that were embarrassed at the Rugby World Cup.
The Azzurri were hammered by both France and New Zealand as they bowed out at the pool stage and are a best-price of 4/11 on betting apps to pick up a ninth consecutive Six Nations Wooden Spoon.
But Italy will point to a new head coach in Gonzalo Quesada and a talented, young squad that didn’t do itself justice at the World Cup for reasons to be optimistic ahead of Saturday’s opener.
Italy have never beaten England and have very rarely got close, failing to score a point the last time the two sides met in Rome.
They’ll hope to make Saturday's game more competitive as we examine our top three Italy vs England betting tips.
Pragmatism may win out in Rome
Italy adopted a gung-ho approach under previous head coach Kieran Crowley with mixed results.
It made the Azzurri more competitive in the main - they didn’t lose a Six Nations game by more than 17 points last year - but didn’t bring about many wins, Crowley enjoying one Six Nations win in two years.
Italy would eventually lose their way under Crowley, as demonstrated by shipping 96 against New Zealand and then 60 to France at the World Cup, and new coach Quesada’s first job is to try and rebuild a talented group of players back into a functioning unit.
The Argentine has a reputation from his time coaching in France as being a little more cautious and conservative than his predecessor so expect to see less of Italy running with ball in hand and more of them playing for territory.
England like to operate in a similar manner with Borthwick’s side happy to kick possession away and play without the ball. They did that to good effect at the World Cup and the decision to name George Ford at fly-half, rather than Fin Smith, suggests Borthwick isn’t looking to radically alter his approach too much.
England will put Italy’s new gameplan to the test and look to nullify a potentially potent Azzurri backline; not that the Italians ever have much luck scoring against England.
In their 24 Six Nations games against the Red Rose, Italy have only broken the 20-point barrier once and were shut out the last time the sides clashed in Rome.
Italy’s attacking output last year was poor, averaging 1.7 points per entry into the 22 in the Six Nations, but England have hardly been lighting up the scoreboard. They ranked last in the Six Nations for metres gained, defenders beaten and entries into the 22, among other attacking metrics.
So we have two ineffective attacks contesting what tends to be a relatively low-scoring fixture. Only two of the last nine games in Rome have gone over 51 points and we’re siding with the under in the points total betting.
Italy vs England Tip 1: Under 51.5 points - 10/11 with bet365
Strong start key for England
England got into a nice habit during the World Cup of starting games well, going into the sheds at half-time with the lead in six of their seven contests, including in the semi-final against South Africa.
As so often happens to England, they faded after half-time against the Springboks, a trait Borthwick will need to eradicate if they are to mount a title challenge and one rugby bettors should keep in mind when assessing the match handicaps on betting sites.
Last year’s meeting with Italy was a good example of England starting well before a second half lull, as they led 19-0 at the break, only to lose the second half 14-12.
In contrast, it can take Italy some time to get up to speed, trailing at the interval in three of their four World Cup matches, while they didn’t score more than six points in the opening 40 minutes in three of their five Six Nations games last year.
They should come out of the dressing rooms with a bit more fire in their belly under a new head coach, but that may not be enough to contain an England side no doubt eager to get the win secured as quickly as possible.
Italy vs England Tip 2: England -7 first half handicap - Evens with BetVictor
George to set a good example
With Owen Farrell taking a break from international rugby, England have a new captain in place in hooker Jamie George, who tends to enjoy meetings with Italy.
The 33-year-old has 13 tries to his name for England, five of which have come against the Azzurri, including a brace the last time the Red Rose visited Rome.
England are likely to bully Italy up front, the Azzurri’s pack not being what it once was, with English forwards having had plenty of try-scoring joy in recent meetings between the sides.
Since the World Cup, George has scored six tries in eight appearances for Saracens and can mark the beginning of his reign as captain with a score.
Italy vs England Tip 3: Jamie George to score a try at any time - 6/4 with Betway
Six Nations free bet offers and price boosts
After three years of failing to figure in the Six Nations title race, England will be eager to put themselves in the mix and those rugby bettors expecting Borthwick's men to challenge for the championship can get 100/1 on them claiming the top prize with Parimatch.
New customers can take advantage of Parimatch's special Six Nations price boost by clicking this link and opening an account. Once registered, deposit a minimum of £5 via debit card or Apple Pay and then place a £1 maximum bet on England in the Six Nations outright winner market.
Should England be crowned champions, bettors will receive £2 in cash and £99 in free bets to wager on the Parimatch sportsbook.
Once you've opened an account, you'll also have access to Parimatch's UK casino, home of some of the best slots games.
Before signing up with any new bookmakers, check the terms and conditions of the welcome offer first and if you are having a bet this weekend, remember to gamble responsibly.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
