Ireland vs Wales tips: Six Nations predictions, rugby betting odds and free bets

Ireland vs Wales predictions

• Ireland to win by 21 to 30 points – 13/5 with bet365
• Under 14.5 Wales points – 10/11 with William Hill
• Bundee Aki any time try-scorer – 9/5 with SpreadEx

Rugby betting sites give Ireland a 66.7 per cent chance of completing back-to-back Grand Slams ahead of Saturday’s meeting with Wales as Andy Farrell’s men bid for a record-equalling 11th successive Six Nations win.

The Irish became only the second team in Six Nations history to chalk up 10 straight wins with a 36-0 victory over Italy a fortnight ago and are now looking to match England’s run of 11 consecutive wins set between 2015 and 2017. 

Betting sites expect Ireland to complete their goal at a canter, making them no bigger than 1/20 to defeat a young Wales team that’s lost its first two Six Nations games.

Warren Gatland’s side had a sniff of victory both matches against Scotland and England, only to come up short, but a trip to the Aviva Stadium, where they haven’t won in 12 years, will prove a much stiffer test.

Wales to fall at fortress Aviva

Beating Ireland at the Aviva Stadium is fast becoming the toughest challenge in international rugby, aside from toppling New Zealand at Eden Park. 

Ireland are on a record-setting 17-match winning run at home, while they’ve won 38 of the last 40 Test matches staged in Dublin.

They recorded their first Five/Six Nations shutout since 1987 when beating Italy last time out and the Azzurri coaches were left decrying how there are currently no weaknesses in Ireland’s game.

They are clearly a level above the rest of the competition this year and the bad news for Wales is that Farrell has reverted to the side that crushed France in round one, minus injured full-back Hugo Keenan. 

Keenan has a big role to play on this Ireland team and his replacement Ciaran Frawley is more accustomed to playing fly-half or centre for Leinster than wearing No 15.

Having Keenan may disrupt Ireland, but not enough to open the door for Wales to pull off the upset. 

Some gambling sites make the visitors 16/1 to record their first Six Nations win at the Aviva Stadium since 2012 and it’s easy to see why. 

Wales have lost nine of their last 10 Six Nations matches and their inexperienced side doesn’t stack up well against Ireland, particularly when comparing the two packs.

Ireland are favoured by 22 points on most betting apps, which is by far the biggest handicap in games between the pair in Dublin since the Six Nations started and looks even more sizeable when remembering Wales have lost their previous two matches by a combined three points.

But when you consider Ireland won by 24 points in Cardiff last year and 22 points the year before that at home, the handicap starts to make sense.  

Wales are in a full rebuild and don’t have many Test match animals to call upon to combat Ireland’s relentless, physical and deadly accurate gameplan.

Wales have been disciplined enough in their first two games, denying England and Scotland cheap points, but even if they maintain that control, Ireland’s margin of victory should still be sizeable and in the 20-to-30-point range.

Ireland vs Wales Tip 1: Ireland to win by 21 to 30 points – 13/5 with bet365

Welsh points may be in short supply

The vast majority of Wales’ points in these Six Nations championships have come against 14-men with previous opponents England and Scotland both receiving two yellow cards. 

They can’t count on having a numerical advantage against Ireland, who have a good disciplinary record, and when the two sides are at full strength, it’s tough to see how Wales will prise open an Irish defence that seems to have improved from last year.

Wales have some talent amongst the backs, but scrum-half Tomos Williams may not get a lot of clean ball in the face of a ferocious Ireland pack. 

Ireland did a masterful job of keeping Italy at arms’ length and Wales will need to work hard to get close to the try line.

Wales’ point line has been set at 14.5 and the under is potentially the way to go when assessing this weekend’s Six Nations odds. The Welsh have only scored more than 14 points three times in the last 10 meetings in all competitions against Ireland.

Ireland vs Wales Tip 2: Under 14.5 Wales points – 10/11 with William Hill

Aki to overpower visitors

Eight different players have gone over the try line for Ireland in their two games, led by hooker Dan Sheehan, who is the tournament’s top try scorer with three scores.

Sheehan is one of four Ireland players who are odds-on to score a try at any time against Wales, just ahead of the returning Bundee Aki. 

Bookmakers differ on Aki’s price to score his seventh try in his last eight games for Ireland, with some making him an even-money chance, while SpreadEx are offering him at 9/5.

The Connacht centre went over the last time he faced Wales in Dublin and his power represents a big threat to this Welsh defence.

The World Rugby Player of the Year nominee had a relatively quiet game in France but has a good opportunity to open his account for the tournament on Saturday.

Ireland vs Wales Tip 3: Bundee Aki any time try-scorer – 9/5 with SpreadEx

Get a free bet on the Six Nations

Round three of the 2024 Six Nations kick-offs in Dublin and for those looking to follow any of our Ireland vs Wales predictions, it may be worth checking out these free bet offers.

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