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Ireland vs Tonga tips:
- Tonga +37.5 points - 10/11 at BetVictor
- First half to be the highest scoring half - 6/5 at bet365
- Bundee Aki to score a try - 8/11 at Unibet
One week after they cleared an already enormous pre-game spread by over 10 points, Andy Farrell’s Ireland are expected to continue their march into the knockouts of the 2023 Rugby World Cup with a demolition of Tier 2 opponents Tonga.
They extended an unbeaten record over the last two calendar years to 16 games with a very comfortable romp against Romania.
Best of all, Jack Conan remains the only injury concern in Farrell’s entire 33-man squad.
Betting sites are understandably expecting another lopsided affair, but not quite in the manner that was seen last weekend. Below you’ll find our reasons for these picks on Ireland’s second game of the tournament.
Tenacious Tonga to be a tough task
As the one Pool B side to have the bye last week, Tonga have no match practice under their belts but instead got the additional time to review the tapes of Ireland’s performance and train up accordingly.
Ireland’s rout was with a near full-strength team and whilst their winning run (including against the Maori All-Blacks) demonstrates just how consistently they’re able to get the job done, it hasn’t always been easy.
The Irish have covered the pre-match spread in just five of their last 13 wins as the favourites, which includes two wins of fewer than 20 points with weakened squads against Italy this year.
Tonga had a difficult time with injuries during an unsuccessful Pacific Nations Cup and warmed up for this event by coming out of the blocks quickly twice against Canada.
Having recruited several players with international experience for other countries thanks to eligibility rules, Tonga have brought what could be their strongest ever World Cup squad to France.
The squad named by Andy Farrell still boasts more than 800 international caps and a wealth of talent, but we’re expecting a spirited and determined showing from a fresh opposition.
Tip: Tonga +37.5 points - 10/11 at BetVictor
A second-half blowout? Perhaps not
In six of Tonga’s last eight matches, the first half has been the highest scoring period and that’s mostly due to the bulk of their points coming early as they did against Canada, Fiji and Uruguay amongst others in recent months.
It hasn’t been the easiest of years for Tonga, who have had to spend a lot of time integrating their new overseas talent, but throughout all their tribulations they have almost never been guilty of a second-half collapse.
At each of their three previous World Cups, three of Tonga’s four matches saw more points scored before half time than after it, which is not a common trend as the odds would suggest.
Against a second-string Ireland, they should have the strength to hold out for the best part of 80 minutes and perhaps snare some early points themselves.
Tip: First half to be the highest scoring half - 6/5 at bet365
Ireland vs Tonga betting: Try scorer tips
It’ll be difficult to find a bet in try scorer markets as far as the Irish backs are concerned, but we’re prepared to have a speculative play on centre Bundee Aki to get on the scoresheet again.
Aki now has tries in three of his last five appearances for Ireland, getting over the line against England and Italy prior to his double last week.
Perhaps most impressive was his stamina and determination in a game that was well and truly already decided. After recording the second-last try of the game, Aki chased down a chip kick to set up Tadhg Beirne for the icing on the cake.
He loves a try or two of his own so we’re backing him to cross the whitewash once again.
Meanwhile, in the latest Rugby World Cup odds, Ireland remain fourth favourites at 9/2, with South Africa and France sharing favouritism (3/1) in the outright winner market.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
