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France vs South Africa betting tips:
- France -1.5 points - 9/10 with Unibet
- Over 42.5 total points - 9/10 with BetVictor
- Peato Mauvaka to score a try – 12/5 with BoyleSports
The second of the two Rugby World Cup quarter-finals to take place at the Stade de France in Paris could be the closest match of the weekend.
UK bookmakers can only split host nation France and reigning world champions South Africa by a couple of points in the handicap betting.
France came into this tournament with an already formidable home record that many tipped was going to carry them through to a long-awaited World Cup triumph that has been nearly 40 years in the making, and throughout an unbeaten pool stage they extended that home winning streak to a formidable 18 games.
That’s despite missing first choice lock and fly half Paul Willemse and Romain Ntamack, but full back Thomas Ramos has been excellent with the boot after a shaky start against New Zealand, settling in to slot 21 of his 22 kicks in their last two wins.
Les Bleus have been boosted by the return of captain Antoine Dupont from a fractured cheekbone to start at scrum half. His presence could make a huge impact on the game.
Each of the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals are difficult to predict but below are three predictions we have settled on for this cut-throat game.
Les Bleus will move one step closer
This appears to be a clash of two enormous forward packs and so far in this tournament the French one has been superior in terms of raw stats.
They have been recorded as the team with the highest collision dominance relative to ball carries (48 per cent), which means they’re slamming defenders hard and gaining territory through muscle power.
But more than that, they stand out with the most offloads (11.8 per game) and second-most clean line breaks all despite having less possession time than any of the other seven remaining nations.
Whereas France have been the most efficient side of the competition in attack, the Springboks have been one of the more error prone of the eight teams to make it this far.
South Africa have won only 81 per cent of scrums at this tournament, the second-poorest of all quarter-finalists, although in their defence they’ve had to face powerhouses Ireland and Scotland.
They also rank an unusually low (fifth) for lineout wins. No remaining nation has conceded more turnovers and has a poorer success rate when it comes to 40 per cent of their possessions ending via errors.
If they rack up the mistakes again, they’ll be on the next flight home.
Bookmakers may have underestimated the scoring
Courtesy of the near-impenetrable defensive walls offered by both teams, bookies have set a very modest total points mark of just 42.5 for this clash.
On the basis of the scores that France have been racking up against comparative nations, as well as South Africa themselves, it’s certainly possible that this is a conservative total.
These sides haven’t played too often in recent years - five of their six games since 2017 comfortably cleared 42.5 points, including France’s 30-26 victory in Marseille late last year.
From their five fixtures against 2023 RWC quarter-finalists this year, Les Bleus have racked up 201 points, while their 18-game winning streak at home includes eight wins against fellow quarter-finalists, and they scored at least 25 points on every single occasion, averaging 32.
If both sides bring out the aggressive games they’ve been talking about during the week, it could be a similar score to the one witnessed last year at the Stade Vélodrome.
More Mauvaka magic?
Since replacing his injured Toulouse teammate Julien Marchand just 12 minutes into their tournament opener against France, Peato Mauvaka has developed into a key cog of the French outfit throughout this tournament.
He has recorded two try-scoring appearances at this tournament in addition to one last year against Fiji before missing the 2023 Six Nations with a broken finger.
One try saw him the beneficiary of a chargedown against Romania, whilst against Italy he peeled away from a rolling maul to find a gap in the defensive line.
France are expected to utilise the maul fearlessly as well as their superiority in set pieces which could create some further scoring opportunities for Mauvaka if the ball is to stay close to the pack for extended periods.
Looking at the Rugby World Cup odds, we’re backing him to score any time at 12/5.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
