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European Champions Cup semi-final predictions
- Northampton Saints +15.5 - 8/11 with BetGoodwin
- Toulouse to win by 21 to 30 points - 3/1 with bet365
- Blair Kinghorn any time try-scorer vs Harlequins - 15/8 with William Hill
The European Champions Cup has reached the semi-final stage and unexpectedly, there are two Premiership teams still standing.
Northampton Saints and Harlequins have outperformed pre-tournament expectations to reach the last four, but rugby betting sites aren’t expecting the pair to set up an all-English final at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Premiership leaders Northampton head to a sold-out Croke Park on Saturday to face Leinster, who are no bigger than 2/13 to reach the final for a third straight season.
Betting sites can’t split four-time winners Leinster and the competition’s most successful team, Toulouse, in the outright betting with the French side even shorter favourites to defeat Harlequins on Sunday.
Both English clubs will need to produce monumental efforts to reach the final and history is not on their side with only two away teams – Saracens in 2017 and Racing in 2016 – advancing from Champions Cup semi-finals in the last decade.
Quins and Saints have both won on Irish and French soil this year, though, and they’ll need every ounce of belief gained from those results to pull off an upset.
Leinster vs Northampton Saints prediction
Northampton are bidding for a league and cup double having taken the Premiership by storm this season and certainly shouldn’t be dismissed in their first Champions Cup semi-final since 2011.
Last time they got this far they beat Perpignan before going on to lose to Leinster in the final by 11 points, and they can stay within that range, or closer, in Dublin.
The fact Croke Park sold out in a matter of hours tells you all you need to know about anticipation levels for this occasion and while a Leinster side stuffed full of Ireland internationals are formidable, they’ve struggled to deliver in the big moments recently.
They’ve not won a trophy since 2021, losing in the semi-finals of the URC play-offs the last two years and getting turned over twice by La Rochelle in back-to-back Champions Cup finals.
Leinster vs Northampton information
When: 5.30pm Saturday
Where: Croke Park, Dublin
TV coverage: TNT Sports 2
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (Fra)
The last defeat to La Rochelle, when leading by 17 points in Dublin, was particularly tough to stomach, but they exorcised some of those demons by crushing the French outfit 40-13 in the quarter-finals last month.
The majority of their Ireland contingent haven't played since then with coach Leo Cullen dispatching the second string for back-to-back URC defeats in South Africa.
Ireland have recalled all their big hitters for this weekend with seven Ireland internationals in the forwards, while the dangerous James Lowe starts on the wing.
That’s a side good enough to add that fifth European star to the Leinster jersey, but Northampton won’t be intimidated.
Saints are bringing through a new generation of talent in the likes of Fin Smith, Alex Coles, Tommy Freeman and Ollie Sleightholme, overseen by some experienced heads in Courtney Lawes and Sam Matavesi.
Unfortunately for the visitors, wing Sleightholme misses out with a concussion and England flanker Lewis Ludlam is sidelined due to a shoulder issue, but the Premiership leaders will feel they still have enough firepower to worry Leinster.
Saints have already won once in Ireland this term, impressively seeing off Munster in the pool stages 26-23 despite playing the last 40 minutes with 14 men.
That was followed by home wins over Munster and Bulls in the knockout stage. On the stats sheets at least, Northampton have outperformed Leinster in several key categories in the Champions Cup, averaging more tries, metres, carries and turnovers per game than the Irish side.
Northampton probably lack the physicality and experience to pull off the upset, but their explosive back line should ask questions of Leinster’s highly regarded defence.
Most gambling sites have given Saints a 15-point start and that may prove generous with the well-coached visitors unlikely to be blown away.
Leinster vs Northampton prediction: Northampton +15.5 - 8/11 with BetGoodwin
Toulouse vs Harlequins prediction
(3pm Sunday, ITv1 & TNT Sports 1)
Harlequins have never been this far before in a Champions Cup and got here by pulling off an upset win on French soil. Can lighting strike twice for Marcus Smith and company?
Quins stunned Bordeaux 42-41 in a classic encounter in the last round, their swashbuckling style of play helping to edge an 11-try thriller.
Their reward is a trip to the Stade Ernest-Wallon to face five-time European champions Toulouse, who ripped Exeter Chiefs to shreds in the quarters and turned over Harlequins 47-19 when the sides meet in the pool stage this season.
Quins had no answer to the power of the Toulouse pack and the majesty of scrum-half Antoine Dupont. It seems unlikely they’ll have bridged a gap of that size in five months.
Dupont is paired with Romain Ntamack as the half-backs for Sunday, with Toulouse naming a formidable pack led by Francois Cros and Cyril Baille. There's also plenty of quality to come off the bench too in Julien Marchand and Thomas Ramos.
It's a formidable line-up and it's tough to imagine Toulouse not having enough to reach an eighth Champions Cup final, particularly at home, where they've won 29 games in a row.
Toulouse vs Harlequins information
When: 3pm Sunday
Where: Stade Ernest-Wallon, Toulouse
TV coverage: ITV1 & TNT Sports 1
Referee: Andy Brace (Ire)
Harlequins were unlikely to alter their gameplan, whoever was in the line-up for Toulouse, and they'll almost certainly have a go at outscoring the hosts.
They have the players to put points on the board in Smith, Andre Esterhuizen, Tyrone Green and Cadan Murley, who all keep their places in an unchanged line-up from last weekend's thrilling win over Northampton.
Quins scored 41 points against Saints and have averaged over 36 points per game across their last five outings. Going the other way, they've conceded 34 points in that time, while they shipped 52 to Saracens at the start of April.
Toulouse don't need any help to run up the score having twice scored over 50 points in the Champions Cup already this season. They aren't short of finishers and the price for Blair Kinghorn to score any time on betting apps stands out.
The Scotland international is 15/8 with William Hill to add to the four tries he's got in Europe already this season, while he also dotted down for Toulouse against Racing 92 in the Top 14 last weekend.
It's set up to be a semi-final full of tries, but it's safe to assume Toulouse will do most of the scoring.
They showed in the quarter-final win over Exeter that they can score points in bunches, notching 47 in the second half, and the danger of Harlequins is they could accelerate away quickly if allowed.
Toulouse won the pool stage meeting by 28 points at the Twickenham Stoop and a chance is taken on them to match into the final by a similar margin.
Toulouse vs Harlequins tip 1: Toulouse to win by 21 to 30 points - 3/1 with bet365
Toulouse vs Harlequins tip 2: Blair Kinghorn any time try-scorer - 15/8 with William Hill
European Champions Cup free bet offers
For those wishing to follow our European Champions Cup betting tips, make sure to check if you are eligible for free bets before placing a wager.
William Hill have a great range of rugby markets and they are offering £30 in free bets to new customers that open an account and deposit a minimum of £10.
Once you've made your deposit, customers will need to place a wager of £10 or more on a sportsbook selection with odds or 1/2 (1.5) or greater. Once the qualifying bet has settled, bettors will receive their free bet tokens.
William Hill also have an online casino UK and a live casino.
Before signing up with William Hill or any new betting sites, check the terms and conditions of the welcome offer first. If you do have a bet this weekend, please
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Last Updated: 3rd May 2024, 04:13 PM
