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England v Wales betting tips
- Wales +11.5 points - 9/10 Betfred
- Over 44.5 total points - 9/10 BetVictor
- Rio Dyer to score a try - 11/4 BetUK
England got their 2024 Six Nations campaign off to a winning start but will be looking for an improved showing when they host Wales on Saturday afternoon (4.45pm, ITV1).
Those bettors who took a very skinny price in the Six Nations odds for England last week would have had a few heart-wrenching moments when they conceded some soft tries as part of a new defensive approach under Felix Jones on the way to a 27-24 win in Rome.
But as sports bettors are all too aware, it doesn’t matter how the points are obtained - only how many.
They now return home to Twickenham hoping to preserve a seven-game winning streak at home to Wales that continued last summer in a hard-fought World Cup warm-up victory.
Rugby betting sites are anticipating the first unchanged England XV since the 2019 World Cup final to notch up a double-digit margin win against a young and inexperienced Welsh side that has opted to reward some of their best second-half performers from last week’s almost miraculous recovery against Scotland.
England have had a torrid time in this particular tournament lately, defeating only Italy and Wales in the two previous Six Nations editions and just Italy and France in the one before that.
Red Rose head coach Steve Borthwick will be hoping that, by opting for continuity and sticking with the same players, he continues down the right path.
However, there’s still work to be done on this England side before they are the finished article and that’s reflected in our England vs Wales predictions.
England continue to fall short of expectations
Last week’s near-miss against Italy was the 16th time from 21 games since the start of 2020 that England fell short of the main handicap set by gambling sites.
That equates to an alarming success rate of just 26 per cent, which is hardly a source of confidence for anyone who expects them to win by 12 or more points this weekend.
Whilst it appears as though they’ll be backing a new defensive style in the long run, there was enough last weekend to suggest they will have trouble keeping opposition attacks restrained while getting to grips with Jones’ system.
Wales head coach Warren Gatland might be working with the worst squad of either of his tenures but he has the knowhow to at least give England a good run at home, underlined by five of Wales’ seven consecutive defeats away to the Red Rose being by a margin of less than a converted try.
Moreover, there’ll be some confident players in the Welsh camp who have earned starts off the back of some fine second half performances last weekend, such as try scorers Alex Mann, Ioan Lloyd and Tomos Williams.
They might be a bit too green to end their Twickenham drought, but we’re expecting them to give this a shake.
England vs Wales Tip 1: Wales +11.5 points - 9/10 Betfred
Healthy Six Nations scores set to continue
With our expectations that England’s defence may remain a little porous comes a similar anticipation of a high scoring affair, or at least greater than the 44.5-point mark set by betting apps for this particular game.
All three Six Nations games last week passed the 50-point mark and although England reverted to type with a reliance on their kicking game to get the win in Rome, there were signs of a more expansive style of play early on.
Against the Scots, Wales demonstrated both their best and their worst when conceding 20 points in one half and scoring 26 in the next, which alone suggests they’re capable of contributing to another significantly large total.
Six Nations matches involving England and Wales last season averaged 47 and 46 points respectively, whilst five of the last nine head-to-heads at Twickenham saw at least 45 points scored, handing another minor edge to the ‘overs’ here.
England vs Wales Tip 2: Over 44.5 total points - 9/10 BetVictor
Dyer may dot down again
Dragons winger Rio Dyer has been flying under the radar amidst all the talk about Louis Rees-Zammit’s defection to the NFL and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso’s announcement that he’ll commit to English rugby instead of Wales.
Dyer has seemingly earned Gatland's trust in this new era for Welsh rugby and rewarded him with an excellent try during Wales’ second points blitz against Scotland.
Due to his bit-part involvement in last year’s World Cup, where he had just two starts (in their second string sides against Portugal and Georgia), it’s easy to forget that Dyer played four of Wales’ five Six Nations matches last year, scoring in his two final appearances of the tournament.
That means he has already completed a hat-trick of try scoring appearances in this tournament, and he looks to have plenty more upside left in him.
Dyer is also seeking to become an influential tactician in the side, publicly expressing during the week Wales’ over-reliance on kicking in the first half against the Scots last week and demonstrating first-hand what they can do when they commit to the run and carry.
Backing him to continue his excellent international form at his price of 11/4 with BetUK may hold value with two of Italy’s back three having gone over against England last week.
England vs Wales Tip 3: Rio Dyer to score a try - 11/4 BetUK
Free bet offers for the Six Nations
Betting sites have gone big on the Six Nations this year, but none more so than Parimatch, who are offering 100/1 on England to win the tournament.
Parimatch boosted the price before the Six Nations kicked-off and there's still time to grab the 100/1, even after the Red Rose's win in Rome.
New customers can take advantage of the offer by clicking this link and opening an account. Once registered, deposit a minimum of £5 via debit card or Apple Pay and then place a £1 maximum bet on England in the Six Nations outright winner market.
Should England go on to win the tournament, bettors will receive £2 in cash and £99 in free bets.
Once you've opened an account, you'll also have access to Parimatch's UK casino, where you'll find some of the best slots games.
Before signing up with any new betting sites, check the terms and conditions of the welcome offer first and if you are having a bet this weekend, remember to gamble responsibly.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
