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England vs South Africa predictions:
- South Africa to win by 1-12 points – 19/10 with Betfred
- England to score more penalties than tries – 6/5 with bet365
- Over 2.5 South Africa tries – 7/10 with Betway
History has a way of repeating itself and four years on from being underdogs for a Rugby World Cup semi-final meeting with the reigning champions, England find themselves on familiar ground for Saturday’s last four encounter with South Africa (8pm, ITV).
England were around 5/2 with most UK bookmakers to beat New Zealand in Yokohama at the 2019 World Cup and successfully defied expectations, edging out the All Blacks 19-7.
This time, Steve Borthwick’s team are even bigger outsiders at 5/1 to defeat South Africa, who comfortably saw off England in the final four years ago to capture a third Webb Ellis Trophy.
South Africa are now odds-on to capture a record fourth title after navigating a treacherous road which saw them finish second in Pool B behind Ireland before a 29-28 win over hosts France in the quarter-final.
The reigning champions were superb against France, but it was a last-eight encounter that will have taken plenty out of the Boks and England should make this a competitive Stade de France semi-final.
Springboks won’t sprint away with victory
After a disastrous Six Nations and friendly series in the build-up to the World Cup, few gave England a hope of getting this far in the tournament.
Borthwick’s team lacked identity, were shipping tries at an alarming rate and struggling to create in the opposition’s 22.
They’ve steadily come together and grown in confidence in France though, topping their pool before defeating a spirited Fiji side in the quarter-final.
England’s success has been based on getting the fundamentals right, a strong defensive game and a good kick chase, but they’ll need more than that to defeat South Africa.
The Springboks are experts at magnifying the opposition’s weakness, as England well know after being dominated at scrum time in the 2019 final.
Against France, South Africa utilised the kicking game to expose some French weaknesses under the high ball. To counteract that threat, Borthwick has gone with the more assured Freddie Steward at full-back in the absence of Marcus Smith as one of three changes to his team from the Fiji game.
The other alterations see George Martin come into the second row, while loosehead Joe Marler joins the pack to give England the best possible chance in the scrum against an unchanged South Africa XV.
England’s selection combats some key threats but they haven’t faced a team of South Africa’s quality at the World Cup so far and are likely to come up short, although maybe not by much.
Going back to the 1995 World Cup, the average winning margin in semi-finals is a little over 10 points, while four of South Africa’s five semi-final ties have been decided by six points or fewer.
England’s matchday squad contains 13 of the survivors from the 2019 final and they won’t be lacking in motivation for a semi-final that could push South Africa close to their limit.
Tip: South Africa to win by 1-12 points – 19/10 with Betfred
Pragmatic England may prefer penalties
Between Owen Farrell and George Ford, England have kicked a tournament-high 15 penalties and the latest Rugby World Cup odds suggest they’ll continue to take plenty of shots at the posts.
Borthwick has preferred his team to take the points when they’ve been on offer, and England may be left with no choice but to chip away at South Africa with penalties based on the Springboks’ defensive efforts.
South Africa have the best defensive record of the four remaining teams and have made the third-most tackles in the tournament, while their phenomenal line speed was a feature of the win over France.
England don’t play with pace – their ruck speed was a second slower than South Africa’s in the quarter-finals – and will struggle to prise open the Springboks with brute force alone.
Although England are likely to be chasing the game, tries will be hard to come by and the Red Rose may end up scoring more penalties than tries for a fourth time in the last five meetings with South Africa.
Tip: England to score more penalties than tries – 6/5 with bet365
South Africa to show ruthless side
Previous iterations of South Africa would have followed England’s example and taken the points when on offer, but this version of the Boks has shown more of a willingness to try and maximise returns.
Betway are offering over 2.5 South Africa tries at 7/10 and that seems a fair price when considering they scored three tries inside 26 minutes against a previously impenetrable France side in the quarters.
Only three sides have scored more tries at this World Cup than the Springboks, who have averaged five tries per game across their matches so far.
England’s defence has looked much-improved compared to efforts earlier in the year, but it still shipped three tries against Fiji and may find it hard keep out a South Africa side featuring world-class finishers Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
