Newmarket racing tips: James Boyle's best bets for day 3 of the Craven Meeting

Thursday's Newmarket tips:

• 13:50 Newmarket – Pen Portrait – 1pt @ 14/1 with Boylesports
• 15:00 Newmarket – Commanche Falls – 1pt @ 6/1 with BetVictor
• 15:35 Newmarket – Eben Shaddad – 1pt @ 10/3 with Bet365
• 17:20 Newmarket – Gorak – 1pt e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365

For Thursday's horse racing tips, our analyst James Boyle looks at the flat racing meeting at Newmarket with four selections online.

As always, you’ll find up-to-date odds at the bookmakers, but our tipster’s predictions are researched early in the day and those prices could soon be moved in by the betting public. 

Odds stated are correct at the time of publishing, but check out today's racecards for all the latest movements. 

13:50 Newmarket – Pen Portrait – 1pt @ 14/1

I would be surprised if Pen Portrait doesn’t prove to be well-handicapped off 84 if he’s fit enough to do himself justice on his first run of the season. He ran three times at this trip as a juvenile and despite being bred for further, pace is the least of his problems. He’s very quick.

Being unable to curb his enthusiasm early doors has held him back a bit but he was gelded over the winter and that may help him to relax. He signed off with a good second on soft ground at Yarmouth in October and although the ground wasn’t a problem, he’ll prefer a sounder surface.

That was a solid effort conceding 7lbs to a horse who was Listed placed on his next outing and if they met in a handicap now, Pen Portrait would be in receipt of 8lbs. We need to hope that he has trained on but if he has, I think he’s very generously priced at any double-figured quote.

15:00 Newmarket – Commanche Falls – 1pt @ 6/1

Commanche Falls was poor on his first run last season but Michael Dods went 1-92 between January and April of 2023. His horses clearly weren’t anywhere near their level but this time they're 7-57 since the turn of the year and hopefully that record can be enhanced.

The selection has been a fine advertisement for his trainer’s skills, progressing from a mark of 73 to win a couple of Stewards’ Cups, two Listed races and a Group 3, and he went within a head of success at 20/1 in this race last year when just unable to repel the challenge of Garrus.

He’s not such an attractive price this time around but went on to have a fine season and was the best horse at the weights on his final start when beaten a short-head in the Bengough Stakes at Ascot. This is his level and if he’s fit, he could make a fourth successful seasonal reappearance.

15:35 Newmarket – Eben Shaddad – 1pt @ 10/3

Eben Shaddad brings a solid level of form to the table and may relish stepping up to a mile for the first time. He was a 6f novice winner on debut when streaking clear on the July course despite being green and subsequently placed twice at Group level over 7f on this course. 

Both were good efforts but the second of them, when behind City Of Troy in the Dewhurst, was much more encouraging as he hit the line far better than he did a couple of weeks previous. Given his breeding, he should be a strong stayer at that trip and it showed he was still improving.

Now, he’s up to a mile and it could be the making of him. The worry is that he can be a keen racer but a hood goes on for the first time and if it has the desired effect, he could be tough to beat. Anything over 3/1 makes appeal and he has much the best known level of ability in the field.

17:20 Newmarket – Gorak – 1pt e/w @ 33/1

Charlie Fellowes won this race with Accession in 2016, who also placed in the 2018 renewal, and could have a lively outsider again in the shape of Gorak. Granted, his form when last seen in August and September wasn’t great, but all of those outings came in sprints.

He’s up to 7f again, whilst his mark has come down to 97. That’s 8lbs below his good run in the Bunbury Cup on the July course and although he is still a stone higher than his last handicap winning mark, the balance of his form suggests he might be able to win from a rating in the mid-to-high 90s.

Most ground seems to come alike to him, so there are no worries with the weather, whilst the way the track was riding on the first two days would suit him as he likes to be near the speed when racing at this trip. If things go to plan early on, he might not be the easiest to pass despite the price.

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