Ante-post Cheltenham Festival Novice Hurdle preview 2024

Cheltenham ante-post tips:

• Daddy Long Legs Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – 33/1 with bet365
• Loughglynn to win the Albert Bartlett - 14/1 with BetGoodwin

Like it or loathe it, the Cheltenham preview season will be upon us once this forthcoming weekend of racing is wrapped up.

Over the past few days we were surrounded by quality racing at Cheltenham Trials weekend and beyond, where we were treated to superb performances from the likes of Sir Gino, Gidleigh Park and Capodanno, to name only a few. 

Over the next two weeks or so the main protagonists of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival will have their final racecourse preparations and then the excitement will really start to ramp up.

The novice hurdle division is the one I feel that still has the most questions lingering over it, with no clear superstar to take aim at, and the 2024 Dublin Racing Festival should inform us plenty. 

With this in mind, now is a good time to try to get ahead of the impending market moves in the Cheltenham odds.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

The ability to forgive is an important trait in life and forgiveness might just be the key to the 2024 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This race is really, really open this year – but that could all change this weekend.

Before we discuss the Dublin Racing Festival, the logical place to start is with the favourite, Mystical Power. 

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JP McManus’ charge leapt into favouritism on horse racing betting sites when taking the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown and while he deserves his spot at the head of the market, I feel he is very raw. A Supreme may just be too much too soon for him. 

I’m not sure the form of that race is up to much and he did plenty wrong. At this juncture, I am happy to avoid him.

From the same owners, Jeriko Du Reponet definitely blotted his notebook for me at the weekend just gone. He looked awkward and while I have no doubt that he is much better than that showing, I just wasn’t taken by him at all. 

The superb Mark Walsh got him home in one piece and without his assistance I am not sure Jeriko Du Reponet would have tasted victory. 

The only way you can watch that performance and still be keen for Cheltenham is if you are already on at bigger odds. I am very much against Nicky Henderson’s charge for a Supreme.

The buzz around Ballyburn is quietly building and while he isn’t the current favourite on betting sites, he could well be this time next week. 

He heads for the two-mile novices’ Grade One in Leopardstown this coming weekend and if taking this as expected he should shorten sufficiently to usurp his stablemate Mystical Power in the market.

I’m not exactly against Ballyburn, but I feel his optimum will be over two miles and four furlongs and further, and he is plenty short enough as it is at 4/1 with BetUK. 

His breeding screams three-mile chaser and after being turned over by Firefox, I thought the step up in trip to two-and-a-half miles over Christmas was the key to his brilliant performance. While he definitely stepped forward for his debut run, Firefox did rather make him look one paced at Fairyhouse.

I am happy to take an each-way angle against him at both the Dublin Racing and Cheltenham Festivals accordingly.

I feel that Daddy Long Legs is also worth a play here at 33/1. He was supremely brilliant at Thurles, before simply not handling awful conditions behind Caldwell Potter over Christmas. The drift pre-race said it all. You have to forgive that last run, but could well be richly rewarded if doing so.

He is still very talented, and that Thurles performance left a real impression on me. He has it within his compass to beat Ballyburn on better ground at the Dublin Racing Festival and would shorten dramatically if doing so. He looks overpriced at 33/1 with bet365. 

This horse is all speed, so obviously there would be a lingering doubt about soft ground if it rained in the weeks before the festival, but at 33/1 I am happy to find out.

After these few, Gordon Elliott holds a formidable handle with three strong chances in the market and they really interest me. Caldwell Potter looks like he’ll be heading to the Ballymore, so he can be left until we know more. 

I have been keen on Farren Glory for a long time, but I am cooling on this as the vibes seem to be very strongly in favour of his stablemate Firefox. Deserting a horse like this can lead to regret, but I am moving away from his camp over the last few days.

I loved what Farren Glory did in the Royal Bond, and he was unlucky when taking a tumble when looking the likely winner in the Grade 1 at Aintree over Christmas. I like him a lot but listening to his trainer and jockey could only sway you towards Firefox, who has to be forgiven a poor run last time.

Jack Kennedy was recently on the Road To Cheltenham on Racing TV and I found him fascinating. What jumped out me was when he was asked about the Supreme, he went straight to Firefox, without even blinking. 

Elliott was very similar when interviewed on Royal Bond day. Farren Glory had just won a Grade One, but he didn’t even pause when asked who his best novice over two miles was, again reaching for Firefox.

Firefox was excellent when seeing off Ballyburn and can be forgiven for his Naas no show as a good few of Elliott’s charges didn’t appear to be finishing their races at the time.

Ballyburn clearly improved for that run, as he was imperious over Christmas, but Firefox held him comfortably at Fairyhouse. 

If he can reach that level again, which he should, 14/1 on betting apps is simply too big for Supreme glory. I feel that Ballyburn could well shorten if victorious next weekend, but Firefox will shorten as well once he starts getting talked up on the Cheltenham Festival preview circuit.

I’m happy to hold fire however on Firefox as he does have a bit against him. The last horse to win a Supreme having finished unplaced on their previous start was Tourist Attraction back in 1995. 

This is a hard stat to ignore, even if Facile Vega went close in 2023 to overcoming it. If you are of a forgiving nature however, Firefox is your man.

No Flies On Him is very interesting and was excellent over Christmas, with his brilliant trainer Edward O’Grady clearly very excited by him. 

I wouldn’t turn anyone off him at all at his current odds on gambling sites, but he looks one to me who will be much better with more time on his side and a Supreme might just come too soon. He could easily prove me very wrong, however.

Of the others, Mirazue West and King Of Kingsfield are talented, but not up to a race as hot as this. 

Ballymore and Albert Bartlett

I am leaving the Ballymore for now as the picture isn’t at all clear. The Dublin Racing Festival will inform us. 

I feel if Ballyburn is beaten for a turn of foot (hopefully by Daddy Long Legs) then he could end up here. 

However, despite being beaten last time I still like Ile Atlantique, but I’m happy to leave him for now.

In the Albert Bartlett, I really like Loughglynn. I was so impressed with what he did over Christmas in a Grade 2 at Limerick, and he can go from strength to strength now. 

While they went a slow pace, meaning the stamina questions are still present, I feel he showed a great attitude to repel his rivals that day and looked classy in doing so. 

I am very confident he will stay and he has a bit of class to match this which is a winning formula.

I fancy him to win at the Dublin Racing Festival and feel he will shorten quite a bit if doing so.

This market is very open with the likes of Readin Tommy Wrong, High Class Hero and Shanagh Bob all looking talented, but I am content to take on the field with Loughglynn.