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All-Weather Finals Day Tips: James Boyle's best bets for Good Friday

Our analyst James Boyle identifies six standout bets at Newcastle on Good Friday
All-Weather Finals Day Tips: James Boyle's best bets for Good Friday
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Horse racing tips today:


For today's horse racing tips, our analyst James Boyle looks at All Weather Finals Day at Newcastle with six selections online.

As always, you’ll find up-to-date odds at the bookmakers, but our tipster’s predictions are researched early in the day and those prices could soon be moved in by the betting public. 

Odds stated are correct at the time of publishing, but check out today's racecards for all the latest movements. 

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13:18 Newcastle – Habrdi – 1pt @ 12/1

The top three in the market look tight enough when it comes to price. Orne is the one I like the most and reckon that we haven’t seen the best of him yet, but he’s into 3/1 and that doesn’t leave much room for error. The runner who could be quite overpriced is Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Habrdi.

He didn’t finish too far behind Orne in the Listed race at Lingfield earlier this month, coming home reasonably well into fifth spot, and looks like he wants to run over a mile again. The track didn’t seem to be for him either and the more conventional nature of Newcastle could be a positive.

I would imagine that a near triple figured rating will need to be posted in order to land this and whether he’s capable of doing that remains to be seen, but if things went to plan last time he could have hit a new career best and that was despite a few elements not suiting.

 

13:53 Newcastle – Max Vega – 1pt @ 15/2

Max Vega is rated 108 and concedes at least 9lbs all round when claims are taken into account. That won’t make life simple for him but he has spent the majority of his career running in Listed and Group company, and definitely appreciated taking on handicappers on his last two outings.

He bumped into a quicker horse at Kempton when they went a slow gallop over a mile and a half but made no mistake at Wolverhampton, hitting the front around a furlong out before keeping on for a one length success. It showed that he was back in top form and he could do better still.

Stepping up to two miles is the interesting move. All of his attempts over this far have come at the higher level but I think it could be within his range against handicappers. Rossa Ryan retaining the ride is an obvious plus and if all goes to plan during the run, he should be a big contender again.

 

15:00 Newcastle – Wild Side – 1pt @ 7/1

Wild Side hasn’t been out since New Year’s Day and I wonder whether she has been saved for this having had her mark left alone after finishing third over C&D. She was a couple of lengths behind Shades Of Summer there but is now 9lbs better off at the weights and that’ll help.

She didn’t have the best of racing positions there either, not helped by her own issues with starting slowly, and I feel there’s a bigger performance in her at some stage. It could be harder to turn the form around with Nine Tenths but she can miss the break too and is ridden by an apprentice.

Rossa Ryan is on board for the first time and having a bit of time off since her last run may do no harm. She almost won a novice first time up last April and was second at Kempton in November following 125 days away. Even a small bit of improvement on her best form puts her in the picture.

 

15:35 Newcastle – Albasheer – 1pt @ 6/1

Albasheer is attempting to overcome a mark of 110 in handicap company and that’s not simple. But neither was defying 105 at 5f for the first time when he bolted up at this track two weeks ago. That was visually impressive and was also backed up by the clock.

Those in behind lack for class in comparison to some of today’s field but he’s a strong stayer at this 6f trip and to see him perform like that confirms to me that he’s just better than ever. Tackling the longer trip won’t be a problem and he also scooted in over C&D on New Year’s Day.

The fact that Hollie Doyle misses out on the ride is a negative given the tune she has got out of him the last twice but hopefully Luke Morris will be able to coax the best from him as well. I think the horse has all the tools to beat these before going back into Group company on the turf.

 

16:10 Newcastle – Oh So Grand – 1pt @ 4/1

This looks like it’s a battle of the progressive four year olds and the front three in the market as very easy to fancy. Penzance has won his last four, including one race here, whilst Elegant Man was runner up in a Listed race on his second start and impressively scored at Dundalk in January.

Oh So Grand, however, is the one that appeals the most to me. She has won all three of her starts on the All-Weather this season, the first over C&D, and finished fast on each of her last two outings to defeat Queen Regent at Lingfield having been held up off very sedate fractions.

An 8lb rise for the most recent of those demands more but there’s scope for improvement in a strongly run race and there should be a better tempo offered up here. She has the potential to make up into a Group class performer in time and might be able to win this on the way.

 

16:40 Newcastle – Kingdom Come – 1pt @ 8/1

Kingdom Come seems to find a new technique for exiting the stalls each time he’s on the track and almost threw his rider off at Wolverhampton last time. Despite that, and getting intimidated when coming through to challenge inside the final furlong, he stayed on strongly to win by a head.

That was a really good performance, taking his All-Weather record to 4-6, and a 2lb rise in the weights is far from problematic. He does have a few lengths to make up on Dear My Friend from their run at Lingfield four weeks ago but that was run to suit the winner and not Clive Cox’s charge.

What sort of pace will materialise here remains to be seen but he’ll enjoy the stiffer nature of Newcastle’s mile, which he’s tackling for the first time, and shouldn’t have much trouble in seeking cover. If the splits come when they're needed and he’s fast enough to take them, he’s a player.

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James Boyle for independent.co.uk

Updated by

James Boyle

Last Updated: 29th March 2024, 03:41 PM

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