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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills predictions
- Buffalo Bills –2.5 handicap – 20/21 Betfred
- Stefon Diggs to score any time touchdown – 6/4 William Hill
- Over 46.5 points – 8/11 BoyleSports
The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills face off in a shootout for the AFC East title at Hard Rock Stadium in the early hours of Monday morning (1.20am, Sky Sports Main Event).
The Dolphins spurned the chance to lock up the division crown last week, suffering a heavy defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens on the road, a result which allowed John Harbaugh’s men to secure the No.1 seed in the AFC Conference in the process.
Mike McDaniel’s side are bidding to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008, while the Bills can secure their fourth division title in a row and leapfrog the Dolphins into the No.2 seed with a win.
Buffalo have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the last month. Sean McDermott’s men entered their bye week 6-6, but they have reeled off four wins in a row to improve to 10-6.
It might not be enough to book a post-season berth considering other games permutations with Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans able to edge Buffalo out if they fail to beat Miami.
The Bills will be confident of defeating the Dolphins, who are guaranteed a play-off spot win or lose in Week 18, after crushing their rivals 48-20 in the reverse fixture.
Miami have had issues against teams with a winning record this season, beating only one team – the Dallas Cowboys.
This is reflected by NFL betting sites, who have installed Buffalo as the favourites at 4/6, while the Dolphins are 13/10 to come out on top.
Here are our Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo predictions.
Dangerous Buffalo to wrap up AFC East
The Bills have underachieved this season. They started the campaign as one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl, but their form early in the campaign put even a play-off place in jeopardy.
McDermott’s men have scrambled since the bye to put together a four-game winning streak and could be dangerous customers if they manage to force their way into the post-season.
Quarterback Josh Allen is still not firing on all cylinders, despite leading his team to a 27-21 victory over the New England Patriots last time out.
He recorded two rushing scores, but was off with his passing, throwing for only 169 yards and an interception.
Buffalo need the best version of Allen to down the Dolphins, but they also have an excellent record against their rivals, winning seven of their last eight, including a play-off win last season.
The Dolphins’ defence is a concern after allowing 56 points last week in the loss to the Ravens and their record against good teams makes it tough to take them seriously in the crunch matches.
After looking at betting apps, we’re backing the Bills –2.5 on the handicap at odds of 20/21 with Betfred, which pays out if Buffalo win by three points or more.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Tip 1: Buffalo Bills –2.5 handicap – 20/21 Betfred
Can the Bills get Diggs firing?
In the reverse fixture between the teams, Buffalo's Stefon Diggs put on a clinic at wide receiver, notching three touchdowns and 120 yards from six receptions.
Diggs posted over 100 receiving yards in five of the opening six games of the season, but since Buffalo’s win over the New York Giants, the 30-year-old has failed to breach the mark.
Allen’s form has been an issue in the connection between the two players, which had been so formidable.
To win the Super Bowl, the Bills need the Diggs from the opening six weeks of the campaign to allow them to compete with the highest scoring offence in the NFL.
If the game becomes a shootout, Diggs has the potential to expose the Dolphins, especially if Miami is without outstanding cornerbacks Xavien Howard.
We’re backing Diggs to end a four-game drought without a touchdown at 6/4 with William Hill.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Tip 2: Stefon Diggs to score any time touchdown – 6/4 William Hill
What kind of game will we get?
Usually, games between play-off hopefuls are low scoring affairs, but that theory went out the window last week when the Ravens blew away the Dolphins with a 56-point onslaught.
The contest is a battle between the top offence in the NFL in the form of Miami and the fifth-best in Buffalo. Despite their stuttering form in the first half of the campaign, Buffalo are still capable of putting up points.
Howard’s injury could loom large, while the mobility of Allen could be used to the same effect as Ravens QB Lamar Jackson.
The skill of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle may be an issue with deep plays down the field. Buffalo have been relatively miserly since the bye, limiting the Kansas City Chiefs to 17 points and the Cowboys to 10.
Miami are averaging 34.3 points per game at home this season, boosted by their 70-point demolition of the Denver Broncos. So, the points line is a difficult one to call when looking at betting sites.
We’re backing an alternate line of over 46.5 points in the contest at 8/11 with BoyleSports for our final prediction.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Tip 3: Over 46.5 points – 8/11 BoyleSports
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
