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New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins predictions
- Under 43 points – 8/11 with BetGoodwin
- Under 4.5 Jaylen Waddle receptions – 10/11 with bet365
- Tim Boyle to throw over 1.5 interceptions – 8/5 with bet365
The NFL stages a Black Friday game for the first time ever with Miami Dolphins shopping to pick up another win when they visit NFC East rivals the New York Jets. (Sky Sports NFL, 8pm).
The Fins are challenging to be the No 1 seed in the AFC and stip atop the AFC East standings at 7-3 after beating the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11.
The 6-5 Buffalo Bills are hot on Miami’s heels, but the expected three-way fight for divisional supremacy hasn’t emerged with the Jets’ season on the brink of collapse at 4-6.
A serious injury to starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers minutes into New York’s season has been a blow they’ve struggled to recover from with the offence having floundered under back-up QB Zach Wilson’s reign.
With their season on the line, Jets head coach Robert Saleh has thrown caution to the wind by benching Wilson and bringing in Tim Boyle to start at quarterback.
Can Boyle keep the Jets’ campaign alive? It seems unlikely and betting sites have made Miami 9.5-point favourites in the handicap betting with the Jets facing up to an exceptionally difficult encounter.
We’ve looked at the spread and several other markets to come up with three NFL predictions for the clash.
Flying Fins may not take off in New York
On paper, this is one of the biggest offensive mismatches of the season in the NFL. The Dolphins are averaging a league-best 30.5 points per game this year, 15.5 points more than the 30th-ranked Jets.
Miami are an explosive offence with wide receiver Tyreek Hill on course to have over 2,000 receiving yards this season.
But those numbers for Miami were boosted significantly by scoring 70 points against the Denver Broncos back in September. And the points have dried up of late with the Dolphins averaging 21.7 per game the last three gameweeks, while there’s a significant difference between their points average on the road to when they play in sunny Florida (38.8 to 22.2).
Miami’s rushing attack has stalled of late too, not helped by an injury to exciting rookie running-back De’Von Achane, who is a doubt for this game with a knee injury.
The Dolphins offence has had turnover issues too and now goes up against an elite Jets defence with a last stand mentality.
The defence has been holding it together for the Jets and should match up well with the pass-heavy attack of the Dolphins.
Gang Green ranks fifth in fewest passing yards allowed per game and have as good a chance as anyone at bottling up the Miami attack.
The Dolphins defence shouldn’t have to work as hard as their counterparts to keep a Jets offence that’s scored three touchdowns in five games quiet.
The Jets’ offensive line has been hit hard by injuries, limiting their ability to move the ball on the ground or through the air.
Jaelan Phillips is likely to be in Boyle’s face all day as part of a Miami defence that arrives in New York off the back of some better defensive showings of late.
We’re expecting the Jets to try and make this an ugly game and with our first Miami Dolphins at New York Jets predictions, we’re backing under 43 points at new betting sites.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Tip 1: Under 43 points – 8/11 with BetGoodwin
Waddle Dolphins do with No 2 receiver?
With Miami averaging 35 pass attempts per game and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa boasting a 69.7 per cent pass completion rate – third best in the NFL – there should be plenty of food to go around for the Dolphins’ wide receivers.
Yet the huge appetite to feed Hill the ball has led to Jaylen Waddle being slightly marginalised and he’s 10/11 with bet365 to have under 4.5 receptions in this game.
Waddle has registered fewer than five catches in his last two games and had just three receptions the last time he faced the Jets at MetLife Stadium.
He faces a tough matchup against Jets corner DJ Reed, who was ranked as a top-10 cornerback by Pro Football Focus last year and is enjoying another strong season.
With the hand injury Hill sustained last week proving minor and Miami potentially better off trying to run the ball against this Jets defence, it could be another quiet week for Waddle.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Tip 2: Under 4.5 Jaylen Waddle receptions – 10/11 with bet365
Boyle or bust gamble may not pay off
The Jets’ 32-6 defeat to the Buffalo Bills last week was the nail in the coffin for Wilson’s time at quarterback.
The Jets probably stuck by Wilson for too long given his struggles since coming into the league and are now banking on Boyle keeping them play-off relevant until Rodgers is ready to return.
Boyle is a different type of quarterback to Wilson who will stand in the pocket and try to put his big arm to good use.
But his results, both in college and the NFL, suggest he won’t fare much better than Wilson.
Boyle, who will be making his fourth NFL start on Friday and first since 2021, has thrown three touchdowns to nine interceptions in his professional career, including throwing a pick against the Bills last week.
As a college quarterback, Boyle had 12 TDs and 26 INTs, and could be in trouble against a Dolphins defence that recorded three interceptions last week.
Miami’s defence has averaged 1.3 interceptions in the last three games and can pick off Boyle at least twice at odds of 8/5 for our final Miami Dolphins at New York Jets prediction.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Tip 3: Tim Boyle to throw over 1.5 interceptions – 8/5 with bet365
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins betting tips
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
