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Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans predictions
- Houston Texans to win the match – 5/6 with BetMGM
- CJ Stroud over 257.5 passing yards – 10/11 with bet365
- Nico Collins over 70.5 receiving yards – 10/11 with bet365
It’s simple, win and you’re in. The stakes could not be higher.
A place in the playoffs, and if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose against the Tennessee Texans, the AFC South title also awaits the victorious team in this fascinating end-of-the-regular-season clash between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, who are both 9-7 going into the game.
The best NFL betting sites have the two teams evenly matched, with just a one-point start for the Colts in the handicap spread betting.
The Texans were the +1.5 points underdogs when the early lines were set. If money talks, the Texans will shade the match.
But, we're expecting an exciting duel between two division foes in a bid to reach the post-season that could go down to the wire in Indianapolis.
Texans to secure play-off spot?
Statistically, some kind of argument can be made for both teams. The Colts, who have won six from their last eight, have had a marginally better second half of the season than the Texans in terms of straight results.
However, the Texans' all-round game may prove the telling factor, and their defence could prove vital if they are going to hold the Colts’ rushing game.
The Colts struggled in that department when facing the Las Vegas Raiders at home last week. They face an equally able defence and may struggle to build up momentum.
The Texans have a decent record on the road, and with rookie quarterback sensation CJ Stroud back in the team for last week’s comfortable win over the Tennessee Titans after missing a couple of games through concussion, they should have the edge.
They lost out 31-20 to the Colts when they met in Week 2 of the season, but they have improved a good deal since then, winning nine games and playing like a team that expects to win their games.
It may prove a tough game for both sides, but in Stroud, Houston has a player that can sway things their way, and they are our pick for the primetime NFL match.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Tip 1: Houston Texans to win the match – 5/6 with BetMGM
Stroud to put on passing clinic
Stroud has had an excellent rookie season and comes into the match with 3,844 yards passing yards to his credit.
He is already long odds on with UK betting sites to be named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and will be all out to finish the regular season with a flourish.
But for missing out on a couple of games through concussion, he would have almost certainly been well past the 4,000-yard mark and, for yardage gained, rubbing shoulders with the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
In the player passing yards market, bet365 offer 10/11 for Stroud to throw over 257.5 yards in the game. That is a very achievable target for a player averaging over 274 yards this season.
Although Stroud has been well below that target in his latest two outings, he sailed past that mark in his previous five games and has done so in eight from 14 matches this season. We're backing him to do so again in a vital game for both teams.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Tip 2: CJ Stroud over 257.5 passing yards – 10/11 with Bet365
Collins to be a factor
As always, the over/under market is tough to call. Betting apps generally have the line set at 47.5 points, which has marginally increased since the original spreads became available.
It is hard to make a solid case for either under or over; so we're going to look at a different type of over/under market.
Third-year wide receiver Nico Collins has enjoyed a breakout season with the Texans, scoring seven touchdowns. A much-improved performer, he has gelled with Stroud and is playing with a newfound confidence.
He has stepped up to soften the blow of losing outstanding rookie wideout Tank Dell for the season.
Over 70.5 receiving yards in the game at 10/11 with bet365 looks to be well within his grasp, especially if the game opens up in the second half.
As well as building a good understanding with Stroud, Collins has clearly thrived under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.
Collins is averaging just shy of 79 yards per game this season and is building a reputation with his ability to make the catch in contested passes.
In a high-pressure game, he will almost certainly prove to be a top target for Stroud, and the pairing can again complement each other’s games.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Tip 3: Nico Collins over 70.5 receiving yards – 10/11 with bet365
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Last Updated: 2nd July 2024, 02:08 PM
