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AFC Championship Game predictions
- Lamar Jackson to score two or more touchdowns – 11/2 bet365
- Travis Kelce over 59.5 receiving yards – 3/4 BetUK
- Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 handicap – 1/1 Betfred
The Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs collide on Sunday night in the AFC Championship Game (8pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
The reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs are aiming to become the first team since the 2004 New England Patriots to win successive titles.
Kansas City are the third favourites in the Super Bowl odds for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, despite their pedigree in the play-offs.
Standing in their way of a return to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons are the Ravens, who have home-field advantage, a potent offence and the best defence in the NFL.
Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson enjoyed an outstanding regular season, leading his team to the No 1 seed in the AFC with a 13-4 record. He claimed only the second play-off win of his career last week in the Ravens’ 34-10 triumph over the Houston Texans.
Jackson and company will have to raise their game for the arrival of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Mahomes continues to astound after winning the 13th play-off game of his career - only five quarterbacks in the history of the NFL have more post-season victories.
Andy Reid’s men continue to find ways to win without operating at the peak of their powers. Pairing the efficiency of Mahomes and Travis Kelce with an opportunistic defence has been a recipe for success.
But, they will face a hostile Baltimore crowd, which will be the ultimate test of their dynastic credentials.
The Ravens are the favourites with NFL betting sites to advance to the Super Bowl, but the Chiefs are best-priced at 7/4 to get the win on the road.
We’re poised for an epic showdown and here are our AFC Championship predictions.
Can Jackson star again?
Jackson notched a combined four touchdowns in his side’s win over the Texans. After a slow start to the contest, the 27-year-old found his rhythm in the second half to take the game away from C.J. Stroud and company.
Jackson was efficient in the passing game rather than explosive, he completed 16 of his 22 passes for 152 yards.
He was more destructive on the ground, rushing for over 100 yards and two scores.
Jackson’s dual-threat will be a headache for the Chiefs’ defence, who will also have to contend with the return of tight end Mark Andrews as well as wideouts Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr.
There are a plethora of options for Jackson to use, but his own legs might be Baltimore’s biggest weapon on offence.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen scored two rushing touchdowns against the Chiefs, so there could be a weakness there for Jackson to expose.
After looking at betting sites, we’re backing Jackson to score two or more touchdowns at odds of 11/2 with bet365.
Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Tip 1: Lamar Jackson to score two or more touchdowns – 11/2 bet365
Another Kelce classic?
Kelce has been the perfect complement to Mahomes during the Chiefs’ recent dominance of the NFL.
Time and again Kelce has come to the fore in vital moments to make clutch catches, including two touchdowns in the Divisional Round win over the Bills.
Buffalo have never been able to halt the Mahomes-Kelce connection, which has prevented them from reaching the Super Bowl during the last five years. Baltimore will have to make it their priority, although it is easier said than done given the quality of the two players.
Mahomes and Kelce have combined for 16 touchdowns in the post-season, surpassing Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for the most successful quarterback-receiver connection in play-off history.
In his previous five AFC Championship Games, Kelce has recorded 36 receptions for 344 yards and five touchdowns.
The Patriots and Tennessee Titans limited his impact in 2018 and 2019, but in the three games since Kelce has been unstoppable.
The Ravens are not going to be able to hold him down completely, but with Kyle Hamilton in the secondary they have a chance of limiting his impact.
We’re still going to back Kelce to record over 59.5 receiving yards at 3/4 with BetUK, but he might not have the game all his own way.
Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Tip 2: Travis Kelce over 59.5 receiving yards – 3/4 BetUK
Who will come out on top in Baltimore?
The AFC Championship Game promises to be a clash between two titans of the NFL.
The Ravens have been the best team in the league this season, but it counts for nothing on Sunday in a straight shootout to reach the Super Bowl. It has been 11 years since the Ravens advanced to the Super Bowl and experience is not on their side.
It was clear there were a few nerves against Houston in the first half before the Ravens settled into their rhythm.
They cannot afford any mistakes against Kansas City, who are a winning machine. Although the Chiefs have not been at their best this year, they’ve still managed to grind out victories in the post-season.
It’s a habit of a great team to keep winning without playing outstanding football. That being said, the Ravens’ defence is ferocious and the key to stopping Mahomes in the past has been overwhelming pressure, see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55.
Baltimore’s pass-rush along with the scoring ability of Jackson and his offence might just be enough to stop the Chiefs’ juggernaut.
We’re still convinced the Chiefs will battle all the way, and given the last two AFC Championship Games have been decided by three points, we’re backing them as +3.5 underdogs to keep it close at 1/1 with Betfred.
Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Tip 3: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 handicap – 1/1 Betfred
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
