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The Players Championship betting tips
- Shane Lowry to win The Players Championship - 35/1 bet365
- Tom Hoge top-10 finish - 13/2 Betway
- Adam Hadwin top-20 finish - 3/1 SpreadEx
The PGA Tour temperature dial is tuned up a couple of notches with the 50th anniversary of The Players Championship, widely regarded as the unofficial fifth major (from 11.40am Thursday, Sky Sports Golf).
Despite the tournament losing some of its sheen due to scores of high-class defections to LIV, winning the Players at one of the world’s most iconic courses remains high on the bucket list of elite golfers.
Scottie Scheffler enters the event as the 11/2 favourite on betting apps to become the first man to successfully defend the title following his dominant triumph at Bay Hill last week and all the signs point towards a top-class player taming TPC Sawgrass which is fairly short for a par-72 at 7,275 yards.
A schedule change from May to the cooler climate of March in 2019, when Rory McIlroy won on a thrilling final day, has given a slight advantage to the longer hitters, but tightish fairways and softer greens mean approach play is going to be key to success this week.
After a close examination of golf betting sites, we’ve picked out three Players Championship predictions for what should be a great four days in the build-up to next month's US Masters.
There are very few negatives about Scheffler’s prospects save for that nagging successful defence statistic and 11/2 still looks a good price considering the likes of Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, 2022 champion Cam Smith and Tyrrell Hatton are no longer on the scene.
Old habits die hard, though, and selecting the favourite doesn’t seem as much fun as finding a player at a bigger price. Here are our predictions for The Players Championship.
The Players Championship tip: Hot Lowry can tame Sawgrass
The last four winners at the Stadium Course have come from the world’s top 10 and although Shane Lowry falls outside that bracket at 37th in the rankings, there is a lot to like about the chances of the Irishman who has finished in the top five in his last two tournaments at PGA National and Bay Hill.
Perhaps just as importantly, the 2019 Open champion features high in strokes gained: approach, one of the criteria needed to get the better of this classic Pete Dye-designed track.
Only Chris Gotterup had better stats in this metric at the Cognizant Classic and he was seventh at Arnie’s Place, so he looks dialled in for a full-frontal assault.
Since the schedule switch to March five years ago, Lowry has finished 8-13-35 in the last three renewals and he ranked in the top 10 for approach 12 months ago.
Lowry’s putting stats are admittedly so-so which is a slight concern, but finding the greens will give him a better chance than most, so we’re on board this major winner at 35/1 with bet365, who pay out on the top eight places for those wanting an each-way wager.
The Players Championship Tip 1: Shane Lowry to win The Players Championship - 35/1 bet365
Hoge a starter for 10
Tom Hoge is in form and catches the eye at a price of 66/1 with several betting sites to win the tournament after a very consistent start to the season which included top 10s at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational.
A couple of dropped shots on the back nine on Sunday cost him another top 10 at Bay Hill and last year he broke the course record at Sawgrass with a third-round 62 on his way to third place, so confidence will be high ahead of this exacting test.
Encouragingly, Hoge tops the proximity to the hole and SG: approach to the green metrics in 2024 which should suit him fine as he goes in search of a second PGA Tour victory.
Betway is offering 13/2 on Hoge for a top-10 finish and that makes the cut as the next of this week’s Players Championship tips.
The Players Championship Tip 2: Tom Hoge top-10 finish - 13/2 Betway
Look out for top-20 finish for Hadwin
Looking further down the market, Adam Hadwin has enjoyed his last two visits to this part of Florida which saw the Canadian finish ninth in 2022 and 13th a year ago.
Hadwin was well down the field last week and has had a couple of missed cuts in the early part of the season, but in his seven outings in 2024 he has been inside the top 20 three times, four if we include his runner-up finish at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open in October.
After closing with a 71 In 2021 for a top-30 finish, Hadwin has previously commented on the difficulty of playing at Sawgrass when out of touch, but he could be primed for a big week.
Hadwin was second only to Patrick Cantlay for strokes gained off the tee last week, so he should give himself chances if he can continue to stay away from the rough.
There have been some surprise winners of The Players Championship in recent years like 500/1 shot Kim Si-woo in 2017 and Webb Simpson at 100/1 a year later, but the cream has risen to the top since the change of schedule and a first win in eight years is probably beyond Hadwin.
However, his game looks in reasonable shape and SpreadEx stands out from the rest of the gambling sites at 3/1 for a third successive top 20 finish.
The Players Championship Tip 3: Adam Hadwin top-20 finish - 3/1 SpreadEx
The Players Championship predictions
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Last Updated: 15th March 2024, 04:16 PM
