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Texas Open predictions
- Aaron Rai to win Texas Open - 60/1 each-way bet365
- Alex Noren to win the Texas Open - 33/1 each-way BetVictor
- Lee Hodges top-20 finish - 4/1 Unibet
The PGA Tour remains in Texas this week for the final event before the US Masters and there is a decent cast appearing at TPC San Antonio.
Rory McIlroy, making only his second appearance on the Oaks Course, is generally available as the 10/1 favourite on golf betting sites, just ahead of Ludvig Aberg (12/1), who missed the cut in his only visit here two years ago.
Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama and Max Homa join McIlroy in laying down the challenge to defending champion Corey Conners, who also won this tournament in 2019, and it would be unsurprising should he make a successful title defence at a course which demands accuracy off the tee and excellent approach play, skills the Canadian has in spades.
This parkland par-72 course is lengthy at 7,400 yards and although water hazards are negligible, tight tree-lined fairways, greens which are difficult to find and deep bunkers make this a tough track to crack.
Catch Rai for Texan tilt
Long-priced winners continue to dominate the 2024 season and there have been three triple-digit champions here in the last five years, so we’re looking lower down the field from gambling sites for our two outright selections, starting with Aaron Rai who is a best-priced 60/1 with bet365.
Rai is starting to make waves across the pond, having posted three top-25s in his last five appearances, including a second seventh-placed finish in three seasons at last week’s Houston Open.
Furthermore, the 29-year-old from Wolverhampton tops the driving accuracy percentages for the first three months of 2024 and is inside the top 20 in the strokes gained: tee to green metrics, so he has the ingredients to perform well at a track where errant drives will find penal rough.
Rai finished just inside the top 30 in his two previous visits to TPC Antonio and his confidence will be sky high after pocketing $219,000 last week which moved him into the top 75 in the world rankings.
Hitting fairways will be a massive plus at the Oaks Course and no one has been doing it better than Rai, so we see no reason why he can’t become the first Englishman to win this tournament.
Texas Open Tip 1: Aaron Rai to win Texas Open - 50/1 each-way bet365
No ig-Noren Swede’s chances
Alex Noren may have entered his fifth decade, but the Swede has looked very solid in the last few weeks and his motivation for performing well this week could not be higher.
Noren, like Rai, needs to break into the top 50 to qualify for the first major of the year, so he needs to put in a decent display to earn that precious invite.
The 41-year-old Swede has 10 European Tour titles to his name, but his last success came at the French Open in 2018 and he has yet to win in the United States. However, this course should suit his straight-hitting game and his SG: tee-to-green stats are more than encouraging.
Noren has missed the cut just once since last year’s Open Championship and he has been inside the top 20 in his last three tournaments at PGA National, Sawgrass and Memorial Park where he finished ninth.
Last year, three 70s and a second-round 71 proved good enough for 15th spot on his tournament debut, so this seems to be a part of the world he likes and hopefully he can get the job done to make it back-to-back appearances at Augusta National.
Looking at the UK betting sites, Noren stands out as an each-way selection at 33/1 at a course where ball striking will be key to success.
BetVictor and bet365 have Noren priced at 33/1 and while they are only paying out on five places as part of their each-way terms, they are paying one-quarter the odds on each-way bets, rather than one-fifth like most firms.
Texas Open Tip 2: Alex Noren to win Texas Open - 33/1 each-way BetVictor
Improving Hodges can be top-20 hit
For the last of this week’s Texas Open betting tips, we’re sticking with the top 20 market despite Cameron Champ letting us down on the final stretch in Houston.
The American looked on course for a top-20 finish only to unravel with a double at the short ninth and never really recovered on the back nine.
Champ is 6/1 this week, but instead we prefer the prospects of Lee Hodges, who is a best-priced 4/1 with some betting apps.
At 72nd in the world rankings, Hodges is another player who has the incentive for a big display to earn a first US Masters invite.
The 28-year-old from Alabama made his PGA Tour breakthrough with a massive seven- shot victory at last year’s 3M Open and has looked in decent nick in his last three outings which included 12th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Hodges closed with a pair of 69s to finish sixth here 12 months ago, having already proved his liking for the course on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 when he shot four sub-70 rounds for another top 10.
Despite skipping Houston last week, Hodges should be nice and fresh from a run of four successive tournaments with his eyes firmly on the Augusta prize.
Texas Open Tip 3: Lee Hodges top-20 finish - 4/1 Unibet
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Last Updated: 3rd April 2024, 11:18 AM
