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Houston Open tips
- Keith Mitchell to win Houston Open - 40/1 each-way BetMGM
- Joel Dahmen - 80/1 each-way SpreadEx
- Cameron Champ top-20 finish - 5/1 Unibet
The PGA Tour will call Texas its home for the next two events as the top stars look to sharpen their game in the Lone Star state ahead of the US Masters in a fortnight’s time (from 12.30pm Thursday, Sky Sports Golf).
Tony Finau is the defending champion at this week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open, back in its original spring schedule 16 months after the last edition in November 2022.
However, the star of the show is undoubtedly Scottie Scheffler, who is a best-priced 11/4 on golf betting sites to make it a hat-trick of victories following his successes at Bay Hill and Sawgrass.
Arguing against Scheffler’s chances would be futile and he has the Houston credentials to suggest he might justify his favourites tag. Scheffler finished runner-up to Jason Kokrak here in 2021 followed by a top 10 a year later and another big performance from the world number one looks on the cards.
US Open champion Wyndham Clark, runner-up to Scheffler in his last two outings, is 12/1 to win for the second time this season, but we’ve scoured online betting sites for some each-way value and a top 20 at Memorial Park, one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour.
At 7,435 yards, this public course is long for a par 70 and with few bunkers or water hazards, it would seem tailor-made for bombers, but find the rough off the fairways and players will struggle to find the contoured greens defended by run-off areas.
Memorial Park has hosted the last three tournaments and some of the key skill sets needed to tame a course described by Adam Scott in 2020 as “relentless” and “requiring something long and straight” include ball-striking and putting.
Finau was second in the strokes gained: putting metric in 2022 and previous winners Jason Kokrak and Carlos Ortiz were also in the top five.
Houston Open predictions: Big Keith set for a big week
Keith Mitchell may not be lighting up the greens this season, but he tops the ball-striking stats and if he can banish the memory of his final round at last week’s Valspar Championship he could be looking to repeat his sole PGA Tour success at the Honda Classic five years ago.
Mitchell picked up four shots over the last three holes at the notorious ‘Snake Pit’ at Copperhead - including a 151-yard eagle at the 18th - to take a two-shot lead into Sunday’s final round, but a closing 77 saw him tied for 17th.
With Peter Malnati taking advantage to join a long list of big-priced winners this season, Mitchell will sense a missed opportunity, but four top-20s in his last five tournaments tell us his form is good.
Additionally, Mitchell has improved every year at this course, starting with a missed cut in 2020 and a closing 68 culminating in ninth place 16 months ago.
Mitchell is also in the top 10 for strokes gained approach to the greens, so if he can get something going on the greens, he stands a chance in a weaker field than last week even in the presence of Scheffler.
BetMGM are offering six places and Mitchell's price of 40/1 holds strong appeal.
Houston Open Tip 1: Keith Mitchell to win Houston Open - 40/1 each-way BetMGM
Dahmen one to watch
Further down the field, Joel Dahmen is similar in many ways to Mitchell and not many can boast a better record at Memorial Park in the last two years.
A closing 65 secured fifth spot in his first visit to Memorial Park and he was inside the top 10 again a year later.
Encouragingly, the bucket hat-wearing American is 12th in the SG: tee-to-green statistics this season and although his form has been patchy of late, it was only a couple of weeks ago that he finished just outside the top 10 at The Players Championship.
Sawgrass, like Memorial Park, is a difficult course, but the fact Dahemn hits it straight will give him chances this week and with a bit of luck on the greens he can contend once more.
SpreadEx tops the gambling sites for the odds on Dahmen, who is 80/1 to repeat his sole PGA Tour success at the Corales Puntacana Championship in the Dominican Republic exactly three years ago.
Houston Open Tip 2: Joel Dahmen - 80/1 each-way SpreadEx
Champ-ing at the bit
The last of this week’s Houston Open betting tips is for Cameron Champ to finish in the top 20.
Champ is one of the longest hitters on tour and although his recent results don’t look great on paper (six missed cuts in eight outings), many of those MCs came by a single shot.
Furthermore, the American believes he is in good nick, especially on the greens which could prove crucial to success.
After his third round at the Valspar Championship, he said: “I feel like I’ve been putting well for a while now.” And on his overall form, Champ added: “I’ve been playing good for a while, but nothing’s really come of it yet. This week it’s a tough golf course which I think suits me well.”
They don’t come much tougher than Memorial Park and as long as he can steer clear of the rough off the tee, he stands a good chance of being in the mix.
Unibet are a stand-out 125/1 for him to win in the Lone Star State among betting apps, but we’ll settle for Champ nailing a top-20 finish at 5/1 for the final prediction.
Houston Open Tip 3: Cameron Champ top-20 finish - 5/1 Unibet
Houston Open predictions
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Last Updated: 28th March 2024, 12:26 PM
