Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Miami Grand Prix predictions
- Charles Leclerc podium finish (sprint race) – 13/8 with BoyleSports
- Fernando Alonso top-six finish – 11/8 with bet365
- Yuki Tsunoda top-10 finish – 33/20 with Unibet
Miami will hope to add a bit more substance to its stylish surroundings for the third edition of the race as Max Verstappen goes for a hat-trick of wins in Florida.
Verstappen produced a masterful drive from ninth on the grid last year to take the chequered flag and maintain his 100 per cent record at the Miami Grand Prix.
Betting sites can’t see anyone else standing atop the podium this year with the reigning world champion a best-price of 2/11.
That doesn’t bode well for an event that's provide plenty of razzmatazz but won few admirers for its on track action so far in its short existence.
Perhaps the hectic nature of a sprint weekend can liven things up at the Miami International Autodrome, which will stage the second sprint of the season after China.
The altered format of a sprint weekend and the reduction to one practice session leave little time to get to grips with a track where there is no margin for error and mistakes are often severely punished.
It can also throw up a few surprises, as it did at the Chinese Grand Prix a fortnight ago. However, Verstappen ultimately won both the sprint and the grand prix, making it four wins out of five to start the year.
Therefore, bettors are advised to shun the winner market on gambling sites in search of better value elsewhere in Miami.
Miami Grand Prix prediction: Leclerc hoping to get off to a flyer
Ferrari failed to live up to expectations in China, which was predicted to be a strong track for the Scuderia.
Instead, neither driver made the podium with Charles Leclerc finishing fourth in both the sprint and the grand prix, one place ahead of team-mate Carlos Sainz on each occasion.
Team principal Fred Vasseur felt the team “made too many mistakes” in Shanghai as they slipped behind McLaren in the battle to be best of the rest in F1 this year.
Ferrari struggled to get the best out of the car in qualifying in China, but their record in Miami gives hope of a return to form this weekend.
Leclerc took pole for the first-ever Miami Grand Prix, while Sainz started from third last year. Given the lack of overtaking spots on what is effectively a street circuit by design, qualifying is more critical than usual.
With Mercedes and McLaren bringing big upgrade packages to Florida, the more settled Ferrari should have the advantage early on as their rivals adjust to their changes.
Leclerc has two podium finishes to his name already this year and hasn’t come home lower than fourth so you’d expect him to be in the mix for a podium here, particularly in the sprint when Mercedes, McLaren and even Red Bull may not be up to full speed.
Norris is a shorter price than Leclerc on betting apps for a sprint podium and the Ferrari driver looks the stronger option in this instance if the Scuderia rediscover their qualifying pace.
Miami Grand Prix prediction 1: Charles Leclerc podium finish (sprint race) – 13/8 with BoyleSports
Miami Grand Prix betting tip: Alonso to get the elbows out
The upgrades for Mercedes could spell trouble for Aston Martin, who have taken advantage of the Silver Arrows’ issues at the start of the year to stake a claim as the fourth-fastest team on the grid.
But given how difficult Mercedes’ W15 is to understand, there are no guarantees that any changes will have an immediate impact, and Aston may find there are still opportunities for a decent points haul.
Fernando Alonso thrived in the Miami sunshine a year ago, qualifying in second and turning that into a third place finish.
The Spaniard comes into this race after an eventful outing in China, where he qualified third for both the sprint and race, but could only convert those strong starts into a seventh place finish on Sunday.
He also claimed the extra point for the fastest lap, and it's that one lap pace which stands out heading to Miami.
While the Aston doesn’t have great race pace, it’s gone well in qualifying with Alonso only starting from lower than sixth on the grid once through five races.
A master of the dark arts when it comes to holding onto a position, Alonso could set himself up for a good race with another strong qualifying performance and his price of 11/8 with bet365 for a third top-six finish of the year seems good value.
Miami Grand Prix prediction 2: Fernando Alonso top-six finish – 11/8 with bet365
Miami Grand Prix tip: Tsunoda back in the points
Yuki Tsunoda’s run of top-10 finishes came to a disappointing end in China when he was forced to retire following a collision with Haas’ Kevin Magnussen.
Tsunoda and the Haas team are likely to find themselves in close proximity once more in Miami in the battle to points at the back of the top-10.
Haas’ Nico Hulkenberg has recorded three top-10 finishes and bookmakers are struggling to split him and Tsunoda in the top-10 betting. But Tsunoda’s slightly better record in Miami and superior qualifying performances this season sees him get the nod.
The Japanese has finished in the points twice this season and has been unlucky to miss out on the top 10 in Miami previously, coming home 11th last year.
The RB also went well in the only other street race of the year, Australia, when Tsunoda was seventh and he’ll hope to back that up in Miami.
Miami Grand Prix prediction 3: Yuki Tsunoda top-10 finish – 33/20 with Unibet
Miami Grand Prix free bets
If you are planning to have a bet on the Miami Grand Prix, it's worth checking to see if you are eligible for a free bet before placing a wager.
Mr.Play Sports are offering new customers £15 in free bets as part of their sign up offer and unlike some bookmakers, their free bets can be wagered on any sports on their sportsbook.
To qualify, open an account and make a minimum deposit of £10. Wager £10 or more on a sportsbook selection with odds of evens (2.0) or greater and when your qualifying bet has settled, you’ll receive your £15 in free bets.
Mr.Play also offers a UK casino, featuring a selection of the best online slots, and a UK live casino.
Before joining any new betting sites, remember to read the terms and conditions of the welcome offer first. If you do have a bet this weekend, please gamble responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 1st May 2024, 02:07 PM
