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Bahrain Grand Prix predictions
- Max Verstappen vs field: Field – 12/5 with William Hill
- Max Verstappen fastest qualifier – 8/11 with Betfred
- Yuki Tsunoda top-10 finish – 11/10 with Betfred
Max Verstappen opens up the defence of his Formula 1 world title in Bahrain and betting sites don’t foresee the Red Bull driver having any issues getting off to a strong start, despite a far from convincing Thursday practice.
Verstappen won this race last year, the first of 19 chequered flags he claimed in a historic season that ended with him being crowned a three-time drivers' champion.
The Dutchman is 1/12 with the oddsmakers to pick up where he left off, with Red Bull having sent their rivals running for cover following a strong display in testing at the Bahrain International Circuit last week.
Conservative estimates had put the Red Bull at four tenths of a second a lap faster than the rest of the grid, but some in the paddock are expecting Verstappen to be even further ahead.
However, the Red Bull looked far from unbeatable in practice on Thursday, when Lewis Hamilton set the fastest time in P2 after Daniel Ricciardo had gone quickest in the morning.
Given the first race of the season has a habit of throwing up a surprise or two as teams work out a few kinks in the cars, could Could this be a rare opportunity to take on Verstappen before the champion gets into his stride?
How to watch the Bahrain Grand Prix
Friday
Qualifying – 4pm to 5pm, Sky Sports Main Event & F1
Saturday
Race – 3pm, Sky Sports F1
Grid to give Verstappen a fight?
Thursday practice was the first difficult day Verstappen has had in Bahrain with half of his race appearances at the Sakhir circuit ending in retirement.
He hadn’t won at Bahrain before last year and while he’s widely expected to make it back-to-back victories, history tells us to expect the unexpected in the first race of a new F1 season.
Just as examples, one of Giancarlo Fisichella's three wins in F1 came in the first race of the season, while four-time Grand Prix winner Eddie Irvine won the season-opening Australian Grand Prix in 1999.
Vitaly Petrov and Kevin Magnussen's sole podium positions came in season-opening races, which is when the big teams tend to be at their most vulnerable.
This could all be clutching at straws in the hope of at least a couple more competitive races than last year, but William Hill’s Verstappen vs the field market is worth considering with the field 12/5.
That field includes Verstappen’s team mate Sergio Perez, who got off to an excellent start last season, winning two of the first four races while finishing second in Bahrain.
Perez won in Bahrain in 2020, while Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc stood atop the podium in 2022. Ferrari caught the eye with their performance in testing and the expectation is their race pace should be more consistent this year having addressed tyre wear issues.
Mercedes are something of an unknown but both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell have spoken favourably about the car.
Aston Martin are another team keeping their cards close to their chest having been Red Bull’s main rivals in Bahrain a year ago, although the perception is they and McLaren will more likely be battling for a top-six finish.
Still, it’s a decent list of contenders ready to pounce should Verstappen be slow off the mark or suffer yet another Bahrain retirement.
Bahrain Grand Prix tip 1: Max Verstappen vs field: Field – 12/5 with William Hill
Max attack in qualifying
While gambling sites have made Verstappen a very short-priced favourite to win the race, his odds to set the fastest time in qualifying are far more reasonable.
Verstappen started from pole position last year, but given he was only the fourth driver in the last nine races to start on pole and win the Bahrain Grand Prix, being fastest in qualifying isn’t a guarantee of success at this track.
The Red Bull driver took pole position 12 times from 22 races last season and he may chalk up a few more this year if Ferrari’s one-lap pace has diminished, as had been reported.
The Scuderia were Red Bull’s main challengers in qualifying, the Italians taking seven pole positions to Red Bull’s 14. But in order to get more out of the car in a race, it is understood Ferrari have had to sacrifice some of the pace that made them such a threat in qualifying.
If the Red Bull is as quick as some fear, Verstappen’s qualifying price could match his race odds in future Grand Prixs so it may be worth taking the potential value of a first pole position of the season for the drivers’ champion.
Bahrain Grand Prix Tip 2: Max Verstappen fastest qualifier – 8/11 with Betfred
RB poses points threat
As if not content with hoovering up all the points and prizes themselves, Red Bull may have given their junior team, the newly named Visa Cash App RB, the tools needed to muscle into the top-10 picture
The team formerly known as AlphaTauri picked up a few points here and there last season but were starting to challenge on a most consistent basis towards the end of the year.
Now, having taken a few elements from last year’s Red Bull, the RB19, expectations are high that they can score points in Bahrain and beyond.
Most bookmakers make both drivers, Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda, odds-on for the top-10, so getting 11/10 with Betfred on Tsunoda scoring points may be a bit of value.
With Alpine struggling and Aston Martin and McLaren on shaky ground, the potential is there for Tsunoda to record his third points finish in his four visits to Bahrain in F1.
Bahrain Grand Prix Tip 3: Yuki Tsunoda top-10 finish – 11/10 with Betfred
How to get free bets on the Bahrain Grand Prix
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
