Australian Grand Prix predictions: F1 tips, best odds & free bets

Australian Grand Prix predictions

• Oscar Piastri top-six finish – 11/10 with bet365
• Alexander Albon top-10 finish – 6/4 with Unibet
• Under 17.5 classified finishers – 5/4 with BetVictor

Two races into the 2024 Formula 1 season and Max Verstappen already has a very firm grip on the Drivers’ Championship as he bids to maintain his 100 per cent start in Australia. 

The three-time world champion has taken both pole position and the chequered flag in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in the first two rounds, and the margin of those victories has quickly snuffed out any hopes of a serious title fight.

Even his Red Bull team mate Sergio Perez is struggling to get close to Verstappen, finishing 13 seconds behind the Dutchman in Jeddah last time out.

Betting sites make Verstappen no bigger than 2/11 to win the Australian Grand Prix for a second year running after surviving a chaotic 2023 edition to claiming his first victory in Melbourne. 

Taking on Verstappen in the race betting seems foolhardy and he’s started looking unbeatable in qualifying too, which had been the one vulnerability of the Red Bull in the last two years.

For those hoping to see someone other than Verstappen stand atop the podium in the early hours of Sunday morning (the race is due off at 4am GMT) hope comes in the form of only three drivers having ever won back-to-back races at Albert Park and Red Bull’s record of one Australian win in 12 years. 

Ferrari’s record in Australia is good too, winning three of the last five races and nine in total at Albert Park, while they’ll have Carlos Sainz back behind the wheel this weekend to put forward a two-pronged attack.

But F1 bettors are still better-served to look elsewhere when considering their betting options for round three, starting with a look at the new home favourite.

McLaren and Piastri up for the challenge

Daniel Ricciardo may still be the more recognisable of Australia’s two current F1 drivers but he’s in danger of soon being overtaken by McLaren’s Oscar Piastri. 

While Ricciardo struggles to get to grips with his RB this year, Piastri looks set to build on a successful rookie season having scored points in the opening two races. 

He finished ahead of his McLaren team mate Lando Norris in Saudi Arabia when taking fourth place, part of a better-than-expected start to the season by the Woking-based outfit.

While Red Bull are way out in front and Ferrari look to have a sizeable advantage over the rest of the podium contenders, McLaren appear to have the third quickest car on the grid, one that should perform well through the flowing corners of Albert Park.

Mercedes were best of the rest in Australia last year with Lewis Hamilton chasing home Verstappen, but the Silver Arrows have a few issues to solve on their return and they look a little vulnerable.

Hamilton was struggling to keep up with the McLarens in Saudi Arabia and Mercedes’ issues open the door to one or both McLarens finishing in the top six. 

Piastri will no doubt be eager to lead the charge, even as the junior driver on the team, and he's been consistent in qualifying, starting no lower than eighth this season. 

While both Mercedes drivers are odds-on with gambling sites for a top six finish, Piastri may offer more value at 11/10 and looks ready to prove he’s the top Aussie driver on the circuit this weekend.

Australian Grand Prix Tip 1: Oscar Piastri top-six finish – 11/10 with bet365

Albon can get off the mark

There are already some obvious gaps on the grid, firstly between Red Bull and the rest and then between Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and Aston Martin and the remaining five teams.

That is going to make scoring points for those teams in the second half of the grid extremely difficult, especially as they seem pretty closely matched. 

RB were expected to be the ones snipping the occasional top-10 finish, but it’s instead been Haas breaking into the points with Nico Hulkenberg snatching 10th in Saudi Arabia.

Hulkenberg had his team mate Kevin Magnussen to thank for getting his elbows out and keeping a rampaging Alexander Albon behind him until it was too late for the Williams driver to get into the top 10. 

Albon can feel frustrated with 11th but has a chance to make amends in Australia, where he picked up a point in 2022 and was running in sixth last year before crashing out.

Albon is arguably the most talented driver among those fighting to break into the more established top-10 and did very well to record seven points finishes for Williams last year.

A strong qualifier, a chance is taken on Albon opening his account in Australia. 

Australian Grand Prix tip 2: Alexander Albon top-10 finish – 6/4 with Unibet

Repeat of Melbourne madness?

Last year’s Australian Grand Prix was one of the most dramatic races of the season, featuring three red flags and a chaotic re-start with two laps to go. 

Drivers weren’t happy with how it all unfolded as the race concluded with just 12 classified finishers.

Formula 1 won’t want to see a repeat of those scenes but it may be that race fans are due a bit more drama after just two retirements across the first two races.

Reliability has been excellent so far but this bumpy run through Albert Park does seem to take its toll on the cars and in F1’s hybrid era we’ve yet to have more than 17 cars finish the race.

It may be worth taking the under on classified finishers on betting apps with BetVictor offering 5/4 on under 17.5 cars completing the race.

Australian Grand Prix tip 3: Under 17.5 classified finishers – 5/4 with BetVictor

Free bet offers for the Australian Grand Prix

Those looking to follow our Australian Grand Prix predictions may find it’s worth checking to see which free bet offers they can use in conjunction with our F1 tips.

Mr.Play Sports are offering new customers £15 in free bets as part of their sign up offer with the free bets eligible to be wagered on any sports on their sportsbook. 

To qualify, open an account via the link below and make a minimum deposit of £10. Wager £10 or more on a sportsbook selection with odds of evens (2.0) or greater and when your qualifying bet has settled, you’ll receive your £15 in free bets.

Mr.Play also offer access to a UK casino, featuring a selection of the best online slots, and a UK live casino for fans of that type of gambling. 

Before joining any new betting sites, remember to read the terms and conditions of the welcome offer first. If you do have a bet this weekend, please gamble responsibly.