Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
West Ham vs Freiburg predictions
- Freiburg/draw double chance – 21/20 with Betfred
- Vincenzo Grifo to score or assist at any time – 6/5 with bet365
- Over 9.5 corners – 20/23 with BoyleSports
A 5-0 thrashing at Fulham was a shock way for West Ham’s recent good run of results to end and they face another testing encounter against Freiburg in the Europa League on Thursday (TNT Sports 3, 8pm).
Hammers boss David Moyes cited mental and physical exhaustion, coupled with an illness in the camp, for their six-game unbeaten run ending at Fulham and gave his players two days off to prepare for this week’s Group A decider.
Both West Ham and Freiburg are guaranteed to advance to the Europa League knockout stage after taking 12 points from their first five matches. But, it’s the Hammers in the driving seat for first place courtesy of a 2-1 win in Germany in the reverse fixture.
The group winners in the Europa League go straight through to the last 16, while runners-up face a play-off round against a team that finished third in their Champions League group.
Moyes’ team only need to avoid defeat to win Group A, but Freiburg head to the London Stadium in good form and are a better side than their odds of 16/5 on football betting sites would suggest.
Freiburg may turn up the heat on Hammers
There wasn’t much between the two teams in the reverse fixture on Matchday Two with goals from Lucas Paqueta and Nayef Aguerd securing West Ham the win.
Freiburg responded brilliantly to that defeat, winning their next three Europa League games to qualify for the knockout stage of the competition for a second straight season.
The Breisgauer, a club with limited European experience, have recorded their two biggest-ever wins in Europe during that run via a pair of 5-0 wins over Olympiakos and TSC in their last two Europa League games.
Those high-scoring successes form part of a run of four wins from their last six league and Europa League matches, with the Bundesliga outfit heading to London for the first time fresh from three straight victories.
Michael Gregoritsch has been the player in vogue in most of those wins, scoring five goals, while the German side have also kept clean sheets in each of those successes.
Christian Streich’s men have also lost just one of their last six European away games and match up well with a West Ham side that had its confidence shaken by the defeat at Fulham.
Moyes is hopeful those players affected by the illness in the camp at the weekend, which included Edson Alvarez and Emerson Palmieri, will be fit to face Freiburg as the Hammers seek to extend their impressive run of 12 wins from their last 15 home matches in European action.
The Europa League odds make them favourites for the win but there are reasons to doubt whether they can get over the line in this game.
Firstly, a draw will be enough for the Hammers to secure top spot so we may see an even more cautious approach for Moyes’ men than usual.
Secondly is West Ham’s struggles to create chances. Their expected goals figure of 5.8 ranks 23rd amongst Europa League sides, according to Fotmob, while only Manchester United (17) have scored fewer goals amongst the top half teams in the Premier League than the Hammers (26) this season.
West Ham will likely need to score to keep up with Freiburg’s attack which ranks as the Europa League’s best with 17 goals to its name.
Freiburg have grown into this European campaign and may be catching West Ham at a time when they are vulnerable. After studying betting sites, we’re backing Freiburg to achieve a positive result in the double chance market at 21/20 with Betfred.
West Ham vs Freiburg Tip 1: Freiburg/draw double chance – 21/20 with Betfred
Captain may lead by example
Gregoritsch may have been scoring for fun lately, but it’s Freiburg’s skipper Vincenzo Grifo who’s been the standout talent over the course of the entire season.
The Italian is the Black Forest side’s top scorer with seven in all competitions, which includes a hat-trick in their 3-1 win over TSC in Serbia.
Grifo is Freiburg’s dead ball specialist, assuming command when his team are awarded a penalty or freekick within shooting range.
Much like James Ward-Prowse for West Ham, Grifo’s delivery from set pieces is exemplary and has led to him recording seven assists to go with his seven goals.
But while Ward-Prowse is odds-on in betting apps to contribute either a goal or assist, Grifo is 6/5 with bet365 to be involved in a goal on Thursday.
He’s gone four games without being involved in a goal so is perhaps due and here he faces a West Ham side that’s just shipped five goals and has managed only two clean sheets all season.
West Ham vs Freiburg Tip 2: Vincenzo Grifo to score or assist at any time – 6/5 with bet365
Expect an aerial assault
West Ham and Freiburg are similar in the way they like to attack, preferring to get plenty of crosses into the box and maximising their opportunities from set pieces.
These two sides rank in the top six from the number of crosses recorded in the Europa League this season with both going over 100 and both ranking in Fotmob’s top-10 for accurate crosses per match.
The Hammers have also won the second most corners (36) so far in the competition, while domestically, they rank fourth in the Premier League for average corners per game in total.
Freiburg aren’t quite so high up in the corner rankings, both in the Europa League and Bundesliga, but 57 per cent of their league games this season have gone over 9.5 corners.
Over 9.5 corners has landed in 62 per cent of West Ham’s Premier League matches and with some quality set piece takers on the field, neither will be too unhappy to take part in a game featuring plenty of corners.
West Ham vs Freiburg Tip 3: Over 9.5 corners – 20/23 with BoyleSports
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
