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West Ham vs Aston Villa predictions
- Draw and BTTS – 17/5 BetVictor
- Jarrod Bowen to score any time – 21/10 bet365
- Aston Villa over 2.5 cards – 7/5 Unibet
Both West Ham and Aston Villa had successful nights in Europe in midweek, but now must turn their attention back to the Premier League for their clash on Sunday (2pm).
The Hammers booked their place in the Europa League quarter-finals after hammering Freiburg 5-0 at the London Stadium, overcoming a one-goal deficit from the first leg with ease.
West Ham’s success in Europe has made life more interesting for the closing stages of the Premier League campaign with the possibility that the side finishing in fifth will qualify for the Champions League.
That’s good news for Villa, whose hopes of placing in the top four took a hit following their 4-0 defeat to Tottenham last week. They rebounded with a strong performance to advance to the Europa Conference League quarter-finals with a 4-0 win over Ajax.
Unai Emery’s men have been inconsistent of late, while West Ham appear to have turned the corner after a difficult run to start 2024. Football betting sites make Villa marginal favourites on the road, but there’s little to choose between these teams.
Here are our predictions for the showdown using the best Premier League odds.
What to expect in the claret and blue derby?
David Moyes was under immense pressure after his side’s capitulation at home against Arsenal last month.
West Ham endured an eight match winless run to start 2024 that cast serious doubt over the Scot's future, but the Hammers have responded well and are now in the last eight of the Europa League, while they sit in seventh place in the Premier League.
Although Moyes will never be universally popular at the London Stadium, he is doing an impressive job keeping his side competitive on two fronts. The Arsenal result was a stunner, not just in terms of the scoreline, but West Ham have been a strong outfit at home this term.
They’ve only lost three of their 20 matches at home, and only one could be considered a surprising result – a 1-0 reverse at the hands of Moyes’ former club Everton.
They bounced back to their 6-0 hammering by Arsenal with a 4-2 win over Brentford and were resilient once more to come from two goals down to draw against Burnley last weekend. They pieced it all together against Freiburg with a dominant performance.
Villa will have to be on their guard after suffering a 4-0 defeat to Spurs last time out in the Premier League. They too flashed their goalscoring prowess in Europe with a 4-0 thrashing of Ajax.
Emery’s side will be a tough opponent for the Hammers after losing only one of their last 12 away games in all competitions. With Ollie Watkins firing on all cylinders, Villa are a threat in the final third.
There looks to be little to separate the sides on paper and betting sites price the draw at 11/4. We like the value of adding both teams to score with the draw at odds of 17/5 with BetVictor given the strikeforces on display.
West Ham vs Aston Villa Tip 1: Draw and BTTS – 17/5 BetVictor
Bowen can press England claims
Jarrod Bowen scored a hat-trick in West Ham’s 4-2 win over Brentford, a result that has sparked the Hammers back into life.
The forward was back on the goal trail against Freiburg, notching his side’s second of the evening to put them ahead in the tie. Bowen also teed up Mohammed Kudus to put the icing on the cake for West Ham’s fifth.
Both Bowen and Watkins - fitness pending - will be playing for England during their friendlies in the international break, but both can enhance their case to earn a place in Gareth Southgate’s squad for Euro 2024 in the remaining matches of the season.
Watkins has been in great form of late and is more assured of his place on the plane to Germany, scoring eight in his last 10 appearances in all competitions. He did pick up a knock in the win over Ajax, but Villa hope he'll be fine to take his place in Sunday's line-up.
No player has more goal involvements in the Premier League this season than Watkins with 26 (16 goals and 10 assists), although Bowen is not far behind with 17 (14 goals and three assists).
Bowen was one of the few West Ham players to emerge with credit in their 4-1 defeat to Villa earlier in the season, netting their solitary goal. The 27-year-old has a good record against Villa, striking three times in seven appearances.
Despite his knock, Watkins has the shortest odds with betting apps to score any time on Sunday, so we like Bowen’s value at 21/10 at bet365 to find the net for the Hammers.
West Ham vs Aston Villa Tip 2: Jarrod Bowen to score any time – 21/10 bet365
Eyes on Villa's discipline
John McGinn is unavailable for the contest and Villa’s next two Premier League games after his horror challenge on Destiny Udogie in the defeat to Spurs.
Villa picked up two red cards in two games after Ezri Konsa was dismissed for two bookable offences in the first leg of their Europa Conference League tie with Ajax in Amsterdam.
Emery’s side are creeping up the Premier League disciplinary table, only Sheffield United and Chelsea have collected more cards than the Villans this season.
Referee Jarred Gillett has been assigned this fixture and has officiated three Villa games this term, handing out eight yellow cards. Gillett averages 4.57 cards per game in the Premier League this season, so the visitors may fall foul of the Australian.
The Midlands outfit have accrued three cards or more in six of their last eight Premier League away matches. We like the odds of 7/5 with Unibet for them to reach that figure again.
West Ham vs Aston Villa Tip 3: Aston Villa over 2.5 cards – 7/5 Unibet
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Last Updated: 16th March 2024, 11:00 AM
