Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Wales vs Poland tips
- Wales draw no bet – 7/10 with BetGoodwin
- Over 2.5 goals – 31/20 with BetMGM
- Piotr Zielinski over 0.5 shots on target – 13/8 with bet365
Football betting sites make Wales odds-on favourites to qualify for Euro 2024 when they take on Poland in Tuesday’s play-off final in Cardiff (7.45pm, Viaplay Sports 2 & BBC iPlayer).
Wales are bidding to reach a third straight European Championship finals and qualify for a fourth major tournament in the last eight years, a record that would have seemed fanciful as little as a decade ago.
But an emphatic 4-1 win over Finland in Thursday’s play-off semi-final has Wales’ Red Wall plotting another summer tour, this time to Germany.
Having now won their last three play-off games, all at the Cardiff City Stadium, and with several members of Rob Page’s men in good form domestically, hopes are high Wales can avenge a pair of Nations League losses to Poland in 2022.
The Poles are one of a handful of sides to have won in Cardiff recently, Karol Swiderski securing a 1-0 victory on their last visit, and they were also stylish play-off semi-final winners, thrashing Estonia 5-1.
That result stretched Poland’s unbeaten run to five games with their fortunes having improved since swapping coaches mid-way through the group stages of Euro 2024 qualifying with Michal Probierz succeeding Fernando Santos.
And with the deadly Robert Lewandowski still leading the line, they pose a significant threat to Wales’ Euro 2024 ambitions.
Home comforts could prove key for Wales
Last Thursday’s win over Finland made it 11 victories in Wales’ last 16 Euro qualifiers with just one loss in that time, that defeat being a surprise 4-2 defeat to Armenia last summer.
That home reverse, followed by defeat in Turkey, were the low points of Wales’ qualifying campaign and they made it through their next four games unbeaten.
Although that late surge wasn’t enough to secure automatic qualification – they are only in the play-off thanks to being in League A of the Nations League – it did give them some momentum heading into these knockout ties.
And their cause has been helped by so many key players coming into camp having performed well at club level, particularly in attack, the win over the Finns marking the first time in three years they’d scored more than three in a competitive game.
Wales’ pacey frontline of Brennan Johnson, David Brooks and Harry Wilson caused Finland all kinds of issues, while Kieffer Moore, Dan James and Nathan Broadhead are strong options to come off the bench.
The Dragons need that frontline firing because they do look a little susceptible defensively, keeping two clean sheets in their last 17 competitive games.
Goalkeeper Danny Ward has barely seen the field for club side Leicester City this season, while the central defensive pairing of Chris Mepham and Joe Rodon hasn’t clicked.
That’s not a good combination when preparing to face a striker in Lewandowski who’s scored more than 600 goals in his career.
There’s been a little bit of a dip in his production this year, but he’s still netted 20 goals for Barcelona in all competitions and was Poland’s top scorer in qualifying with three.
He’s the headline threat, but Poland possesses other dangers, too, including Napoli playmaker Piotr Zielinski and Roma youngster Nicola Zalewski, who recorded three assists in the win over Estonia.
Defensively, Jakub Kiwior is in good form for Arsenal, while Wojciech Szczesny was man of the match the last time Poland faced Wales.
The two teams look well-matched on paper and Poland have been better under Probierz, although their form on the road is what pushes us towards Wales when looking at this game on betting sites.
The Poles lost three of their four away games in qualifying, including a shock defeat to minnows Moldova, while they've won just three of their last 11 games played on foreign soil.
There wasn’t a great deal between the two teams in their Nations League meetings, despite Poland winning both matches and Wales do tend to find a bit extra at home in these games and rarely fail to score at home.
Backing Wales draw no bet on gambling sites offers a bit of security should these two prove very evenly matched.
Wales vs Poland Tip 1: Wales draw no bet – 7/10 with BetGoodwin
Go for goals in Cardiff
Play-off finals have a tendency to be tight, tense encounters with goals at a premium. None of the three Uefa play-off finals for the 2022 World Cup produced more than two goals, but this clash could buck that trend.
Wales’ defensive deficiencies have been highlighted, while Poland shipped at least two goals in three of their four away qualifiers in the group stage.
Attack might be the best form of defence for both sides given the weapons at their disposal with Moore, Brooks and Broadhead all in good goalscoring form for their clubs.
Wilson pulled the strings brilliantly for Wales against Finland and is a big threat from set pieces, while Johnson and James both ended international goal droughts last time out.
Poland are still pretty reliant on Lewandowski overall but they did score five against Estonia without a contribution from the Barca frontman.
They’ve only failed to score once in their 11 games since reaching the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup and this could be a more open final than previous play-off games.
Wales vs Poland Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals – 31/20 with BetMGM
Zielinski a big danger to Wales
Wales struggled to control the midfield against Finland and with Poland likely to start with three central midfielders, that will be a key battleground on Tuesday.
If Poland are allowed to dictate the game in that area, then Zielinski could have a big say on proceedings.
He’s been relatively quiet at club level this season ahead of a planned move from Napoli to Inter Milan at the end of the season, but was dictating the game against Estonia.
He scored once and had four shots on goal, two of which hit the target, and yet his price on betting apps to score or even have a shot on target doesn’t appear to reflect the danger he can pose.
Since Probierz took charge, he’s had a shot on target in three of his five appearances for Poland, while he’s registered a goal or an assist in his last three international games.
He’s arguably as big of a threat to Wales as Lewandowski and can be backed at 13/8 with bet365 to have a shot on target on Tuesday.
Wales vs Poland Tip 3: Piotr Zielinski over 0.5 shots on target – 13/8 with bet365
Get a free bet on Euro 2024 play-offs
The final three spots at Euro 2024 will be filled on Tuesday night and bookmakers are liable to start ramping up their Euro 2024 odds and welcome offers for the tournament shortly.
But if you can't wait that long, BetVictor are offering £40 in free bets to new customers right now. To qualify, register a new account and opt-in to the promotion via the offers tab.
Place a £10 bet on any football match at odds of evens (2.0) or greater and within 48 hours of placing your bet, you’ll receive four £10 free bet tokens to wager on football.
As well as their established sportsbook, BetVictor also offer an online casino UK will find, featuring a variety of table games and the best UK slots.
Always check the terms and conditions of the welcome offer before signing up for any new betting sites and remember to gamble responsibly if you do have a bet on the Europa League.
Updated by
Last Updated: 25th March 2024, 03:40 PM
