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Wales vs Finland tips
- Wales to win by one goal – 5/2 with bet365
- Daniel James to score any time – 10/3 with BoyleSports
- Joel Pohjanpalo over 0.5 shots on target – 11/10 with bet365
A third successive appearance in a European Championship finals is the goal for Wales as they prepare to face Finland in the play-off semi-finals on Thursday evening (7.45pm, Viaplay Sports 1 & S4C).
The Dragons have gone to the last two Euros, securing automatic qualification on each occasion, but must negotiate the play-offs this time around.
Wales have spoken confidently about the knockout format holding no fears having qualified for the 2022 World Cup with a pair of play-off wins over Austria and Ukraine.
This time it’s Finland first up, followed by a potential play-off final against either Poland or Estonia five days later, with both games to be played in Cardiff.
Wales’ strong home qualifying record is part of the reason why they are favourites on football betting sites to emerge victorious from a meeting with a nation ranked 31 places below them by Fifa and who finished third in their qualifying group behind Denmark and Slovenia.
The Finns are looking to qualify for a major tournament for just the second time in their history having made it to Euro 2020 and while the experienced Eagles Owls aren’t to be underestimated, it may pay to side with Wales for this one.
Nervy Wales may not blow away Finns
It’s not just a spot at this summer’s European Championships on the line for Wales coach Rob Page during this international break.
Failure to guide Wales to their fourth major tournament in the last eight years could bring about the end of his tenure with questions having been asked of Page’s future during qualification.
After a winless Nations League campaign and an underwhelming showing at the 2022 World Cup, Wales won just one of their first four Euro 2024 qualifiers, suffering a humbling 4-2 home defeat to Armenia.
They recovered well to go unbeaten in their next four games but it wasn’t enough to secure automatic qualification as they finished third behind Turkey and Croatia.
It’s only thanks to having been in League A of the Nations League that they still have a shot at going to the Euros and there’s no Gareth Bale to ride to the rescue this time, as he did the last time Wales made the qualification play-offs.
With Aaron Ramsey struggling for fitness, now is the time for the next generation to step up and there are some positive signs they can get the job done with several members of Page’s squad in good form at club level.
Four members of the squad play for Leeds, who recently hit top spot in the Championship, while Ipswich duo Nathan Broadhead and Kieffer Moore are in fine goalscoring form. Brennan Johnson, Harry Wilson and Neco Williams have all looked sharp for their respective club sides too.
The major concern for Page is in goal, with none of the four shot stoppers he’s selected first-choice for their club sides.
That’s a concern for a team that’s struggled to keep clean sheets of late – two shut outs in the last 16 competitive games – and may leave the Red Wall feeling a little unstable at the Cardiff City Stadium.
Finland won three of their five away games in qualifying and scored 18 goals across their 10 matches, a decent return from a team to finish third.
Those numbers are slightly misleading though as they got the majority of their goals in two games against San Marino and Northern Ireland, while they struggled to see off San Marino in their final game of qualifying.
They’ve been dealt a blow ahead of Thursday's play-off with influential pair Marcus Forss and Robert Taylor ruled out, but they still have some players that could cause Wales problems, most notably star striker Teemu Pukki.
Whether they have enough to upset Wales would seem unlikely and betting sites go odds-on that Page’s men will get the job done inside 90 minutes.
Wales have won 10 of their last 15 home Euro qualifiers so can be backed with some confidence. But in a meeting of two defensively-minded teams and with six of the Dragons’ last nine wins coming by a single goal, there may not be much in it.
Wales vs Finland Tip 1: Wales to win by one goal – 5/2 with bet365
James out to get Finns
One nice problem Page faces is trying to pick which of his in-form forwards to start in attack. Moore seems set to lead the line but with the Wales boss reportedly weighing up whether to go 5-3-2 or 4-3-3, how many partners he has up top remains to be seen.
Page is likely to want some speed to go with Moore’s physicality and Johnson and/or Daniel James seem the most likely to get the nod.
Johnson may edge out James if it's just two in attack, but it’s still worth considering the Leeds flyer as an any time scorer on gambling sites given his recent form.
The 26-year-old has looked really dangerous for the Whites, scoring in two of his last three games to take his tally for the season to 12, while he’s been recording multiple shots in games in the last few months.
He got one goal and two assists during qualifying, and his form for Leeds suggests his input could be vital in helping Wales reach the play-off final.
Wales vs Finland Tip 2: Daniel James to score any time – 10/3 with BoyleSports
Pohjanpalo poses a threat
Pukki has rightly been picked out as the main threat to Wales, but it’s worth looking beyond the Minnesota United forward, who has failed to score in three of his last four starts in the MLS.
In far better form is Joel Pohjanpalo, who has bagged 19 goals in all competitions Serie B side Venezia, with 13 of those strikes coming since the turn of the year.
He was in and out of the Finland side during qualifying but his recent form may earn him a start against a shaky Wales defence.
Pohjanpalo links up with the national side on a run of eight games with at least one shot on target, including registering four attempts on target in his last game for Venezia.
The 29-year-old shouldn’t lack confidence and will likely try his luck at least once on Thursday, with bet365 offering 11/10 that he hits the target at least once.
Wales vs Finland Tip 3: Joel Pohjanpalo over 0.5 shots on target – 11/10 with bet365
Wales vs Finland tips
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Last Updated: 21st March 2024, 05:17 PM
