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Ukraine vs England betting tips:
- Handicap bet, England -1 - 5/4 with Betfred
- Both teams to score No - 4/5 with Parimatch
- Harry Kane to score anytime - 11/10 with William Hill
England are making very serene progress in their efforts to qualify for Euro 2024. Gareth Southgate’s side have won their opening four matches in Group C, scoring 15 times while conceding only once.
It’s therefore unsurprising that the best price offered by football betting sites for the Three Lions to reach the finals in Germany next summer is a miserly 1/50.
They could be beaten heavily on Saturday somehow and it wouldn’t make any difference in terms of whether they qualify or not.
However, while a heavy defeat for England is highly unlikely, any sort of win for Ukraine would cement their second-place position in the group, which also secures automatic qualification if they can retain it.
As this match is far more important for the ‘home’ side – the game is being held in Poland – will that enable them to bridge the quality gap between the two teams?
Former Tottenham and West Ham striker Sergey Rebrov took charge of his nation in June and would no doubt love to beat the nation he once called home.
History favours the visitors
History is not on Ukraine’s side. They have won just one of the nine previous meetings between these sides, with their solitary success occurring back in 2009, and only after England goalkeeper Robert Green was dismissed in the 14th minute.
While they have earned a draw twice in the five meetings since, Ukraine have scored just one goal in that quintet of clashes and that was thanks to a 25-yard stunner from Yevhen Konoplyanka in 2012.
More recently, the countries have clashed twice in the Gareth Southgate era. England won 4-0 in Rome at the quarter-final stage of Euro 2020, then picked up a routine 2-0 victory earlier in this qualifying campaign.
The limited evidence suggests Rebrov has Ukraine moving in the right direction. His first game was a 3-3 friendly draw with Germany, although his side were 3-1 up in the 82nd minute so should really have won.
Ukraine followed that with qualification victories over North Macedonia (3-2) and Malta (1-0). This is clearly a step up though and those results won’t count for too much here.
While the Fifa rankings are easy to mock, their placing of England as the fourth best international team in the world doesn’t seem absurd.
And assuming you accept this idea, consider that Ukraine’s three recent opponents are currently 15th, 68th and 171st respectively. As such, you have to think England will win with the quality of players at Southgate’s disposal.
With a 6-0 aggregate across the last two meetings, the visitors could have enough to overcome a one goal handicap.
Tip: Handicap bet, England -1 - 5/4 with Betfred
Back England to keep a clean sheet
Ukraine might have scored three goals in two of their three matches under Rebrov but the fact they only got one against Malta could be something of a concern.
Yet in a way, the opposite is true. Against the Maltese, Ukraine had 19 shots including six Opta-defined big chances so should really have scored more than once.
By contrast, the trio of goals they netted against Germany and North Macedonia came from just five and six attempts respectively.
They also barely laid a glove on England in their last two meetings. Across those games, Ukraine recorded 10 shots, with just two on target and no chances that were of sufficient quality to be classified as big.
As such, betting ‘no’ in the Both Teams to Score market is our preferred play here. And you never know, maybe England will forget to wear their shooting boots too.
Tip: Both Teams to Score No – 4/5 with Parimatch
Harry Kane can extend his record
It doesn’t take much imagination to suggest Harry Kane for a goal bet in international football.
While penalties have significantly boosted the total for England’s record scorer – he would be sixth in the standings if spot-kicks didn’t count – there’s no doubt he’s in great form for club and country.
Kane has three goals across his three starts for new club Bayern Munich. He has also scored in his last six appearances for England, bagging seven goals in total and it’s a run which includes netting against Ukraine in March.
The England captain opened the scoring that day and did so in the prior clash between these countries too (later adding a second goal in that Euro 2020 clash).
With Ukraine having recently conceded penalty goals to both Germany and North Macedonia, their rash defending only increases Kane’s likelihood of getting on the scoresheet.
Tip: Harry Kane to score anytime – 11/10 with William Hill
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
