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Tottenham vs Liverpool betting tips:
- Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals – 4/7 with BoyleSports
- Son Heung-min to score any time – 13/8 with William Hill
- Under 4.5 cards – 10/11 with Betway
Ange Postecoglou has made a fantastic start to life in English football but he is going to face a stern test of his credentials when Liverpool visit Tottenham this weekend.
Spurs have made their best start to a Premier League season after six matches, with four wins and two draws. However, Liverpool have been even better – earning 16 points so far – and will pose a serious threat to Tottenham’s unbeaten record on Saturday (5:30pm, Sky Sports).
Football betting sites favour the Reds to win the match. As they are the only Premier League side Spurs have yet to beat at their new stadium (in the league), Liverpool’s record on that side of north London commands serious respect.
Both clubs missed out on the top four last season but the latest Premier League odds suggest they will be challenging for Champions League qualification come May, with Liverpool rated 1/4 compared to Tottenham’s price of 7/4.
Tottenham vs Liverpool tips: Expect goals at both ends
The outcome of this game is very difficult to predict. While Liverpool have been performing much better than they did for most of 2022/23, they remain vulnerable to poor starts.
All seven goals they have conceded in all competitions this season have occurred in the first halves of matches, with four of them in the opening 14 minutes of games. Recovering to beat Bournemouth or Leicester at Anfield is one thing, doing so at Tottenham would be much more difficult.
The Reds certainly have the upper hand in the recent head-to-head stats though. In the Jurgen Klopp era, Liverpool have won 11 of the 18 meetings, with six draws and a single defeat.
Granted, that one loss was a big win for Spurs (4-1 in 2017) but those were the days of Dejan Lovren and Simon Mignolet rather than Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk.
Interestingly, the underlying expected goals data suggests Tottenham should be favourites. However, the fact they gave up four clear-cut chances to Manchester United – three while the game was 0-0 – and had to twice come from behind to earn a point at Arsenal suggests they still struggle against fellow ‘big six’ sides.
Rather than picking a winner, we’re focussing on the odds of this one turning into an end-to-end affair.
Both teams have scored in the last six clashes with all but one of those games also seeing over 2.5 goals. A combined bet on both paid out inside 40 minutes last time they met and while it may take a little longer here, it’s a punt we’re confident in.
Tip: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals – 4/7 with BoyleSports
Son the main man in form
Both clubs can offer plenty of appealing options for the goalscorer markets as they each have five players who’ve taken at least 10 shots in the Premier League this season.
Mohamed Salah has had the most in total (18) while James Maddison has fired the most attempts on target (11).
Many of the latter’s efforts have been from outside the box, though, so Diogo Jota might be worth a look, as he has the shortest average shot distance this term.
Darwin Nunez will also appeal to punters and with good reason – the Uruguayan has the highest average chance quality of the 10 players with a decent sample size.
They’re all valid options but Son Heung-min makes the best all-round case, as he is ranked third in three of those four categories. He is also in electric form at present, with five goals in his last 215 minutes of playing time for Tottenham.
The South Korean has scored in his last three games against Liverpool, and four of the last five. With Harry Kane now in Germany, Spurs will need Son to stand up in a big match and he may well deliver a goal here with betting sites offering 13/8 on him to score.
Tip: Heung-Min Son to score any time – 13/8 with William Hill
Lack of cards from referee
These teams played out a fiery contest at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in December 2021. Andy Robertson was sent off, Kane was lucky not to have been and both teams received four yellow cards.
That game was a massive outlier though. There wasn’t a single booking made in the corresponding fixture last season and only five across the two north London meetings prior to the aforementioned chaos two years ago.
Factor in too that the referee for this match is Simon Hooper, one of the most card-averse officials the Premier League has to offer these days.
Across his last two matches – one of which was Liverpool’s 3-0 victory over Aston Villa – he showed just three yellow cards. Even when doing the Merseyside derby last season, he only issued four bookings.
With a level-headed referee like that in charge and two teams who generally appear to get on well, a bet on under 4.5 cards is our third and final pick.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
