Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Real Madrid vs Barcelona predictions
- Real Madrid to win – 13/10 with BetGoodwin
- Over 1.5 Real Madrid goals – 11/10 with William Hill
- Jude Bellingham to score at any time – 12/5 with bet365
For the second season running, Barcelona and Real Madrid will contest the Spanish Super Cup final with football betting sites favouring Los Blancos to avenge last year’s defeat on Sunday (7pm GMT ).
This competition gave Xavi his first trophy as Barca boss 12 months ago as they edged out their Clasico rivals 3-1 in the decider.
The Catalan club would follow that success by capturing the LaLiga title, but the defence of their championship hasn’t gone to plan and they currently trail leaders Real by seven points.
Successfully retaining the Spanish Super Cup would give Barcelona a much-needed lift but they’ve looked far from their best recently, including during Thursday’s 2-0 victory over Osasuna in the Super Cup semi-finals
It was a more straightforward success than Real’s 5-3 extra-time win over Atletico Madrid the night previously, but Xavi’s men will need to raise their game if they are to become only the second side to beat their Clasico rivals this season.
Los Blancos are unbeaten in 20 games – a run that includes a 2-1 win over Barcelona in October – and look hungry to land the first trophy of the season.
Ancelotti’s side look the real deal
Real showed their mettle in Wednesday’s hectic last-four encounter against Atletico, twice coming from behind to reach the final and keep alive their hopes of a 13th Spanish Super Cup success.
Betting sites believe Real should get the job done and it’s hard to argue against their status as favourites for the second Clasico of the season.
Los Blancos may have played half an hour more to reach the final but that's mitigated by having a day extra to recover compared to Barcelona, while coach Carlo Ancelotti has the luxury of bringing Eduardo Camavinga and Toni Kroos to freshen up his starting XI should he choose.
Although the best defence in LaLiga shipped three against Atletico, Diego Simeone's men registered just 0.60 expected goals in that clash, suggesting Atleti were fortunate to score as many as they did.
Real’s patched-up backline – they are currently short on centre-backs through injury – has looked solid in the main and won’t have to worry about Barcelona’s chief architect Raphinha after he went off injured against Osasuna.
Given how pivotal the former Leeds man has been to Barca recently, that’s a big blow, as is the news that their best central defender, Inigo Martinez, has picked up another issue.
Pedri’s return to fitness is a boost but there are certainly more holes to poke in this Barcelona side than their rivals from the capital.
Barca backers might point to the fact they are unbeaten in five in all competitions and have the highest expected goals figure in LaLiga, but their performances on the pitch do little to convince they can repeat last year’s success.
They’ve needed late goals to settle the majority of games in their unbeaten run, including against Osasuna, where they rode at their luck at 1-0 up before teenage sensation Lamine Yamal put the match to bed late on.
There wasn’t a great deal to separate these sides when they met earlier in the season but Real have improved since then.
Jude Bellingham was the hero of the last Clasico but they’ve been getting goals from a variety of sources recently, including Antonio Rudiger scoring in two of Real’s last three games from corners.
With Barca no longer able to rely on their primary source of goals, Robert Lewandowski, there’s just more to like about Ancelotti’s well-organised side that’s proven devilishly difficult to beat.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Tip 1: Real Madrid to win – 13/10 with BetGoodwin
Barca backline looks brittle
Barcelona’s run to the LaLiga title and Spanish Super Cup last season was built on solid defensive foundations with Xavi’s men conceding a club-record 20 league goals all campaign – 13 fewer than the team with the second-best defensive record, Atletico Madrid.
But already this term, the Catalan club have shipped 22 goals in the league and had gone six games without a clean sheet before shutting out Osasuna.
It’s tough to trust this Barcelona defence now and their chances of keeping out Real look slim.
Having only scored once each in their two LaLiga games either side of the winter break, Real’s attack exploded into life against Atletico and they look to carry a greater threat than their rivals.
They’ve averaged over two goals per game in LaLiga this season, while they were scoring at an even higher rate (2.7 goals per game) through the Champions League group stage.
In 27 games in all competitions this season, Real have only failed to score once while they’ve netted at least twice in 19 of those matches.
William Hill offer 11/10 they score two or more goals in Sunday’s final and we’re happy to take a chance on that with our second Real Madrid vs Barcelona prediction.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Tip 2: Over 1.5 Real Madrid goals – 11/10 with William Hill
Bellingham back among the goals
Bellingham has gone three games without a goal for Real, which may not seem like long for a midfielder but is in fact his longest dry spell since his summer move to the Bernabeu.
The favourite to win next year’s Ballon d’Or had been significantly outperforming his expected goals this season by netting 17 times so there’s a chance his output is regressing to the mean.
But he’s still heavily involved in and around the penalty area for Real and his price on betting apps to score any time in Sunday’s final perhaps overlooks that.
He scored a brace in the first Clasico of the season and in 24 games for Real across all competitions he’s only failed to register a shot on target four times.
The England international should get chances to add to his tally against Barcelona, especially on the counter-attack where Barca have been so vulnerable and Bellingham so prominent for Real this season.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Tip 3: Jude Bellingham to score at any time – 12/5 with bet365
Free bets for El Clasico
Any El Clasico, even one played in Saudia Arabia, is a big occasion and for those looking to have a wager on this edition of the rivalry, it’s worth checking out these new betting sites for free bets.
Amongst the current free bet offers is BetUK’s Bet £10, Get £30 in free bets. To qualify, new customers must open an account with BetUK by clicking this link and place a £10 qualifying wager at odds of 4/5 or greater.
Once the bet has settled, BetUK will credit you with three £10 free bets to use on football and horse racing.
Before joining BetUK or any other bookmaker, remember to read the terms and conditions, and if you do bet on El Clasico this weekend, please do so responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
