Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid betting tips
- Real Madrid to win – 28/25 with All British Sports
- Real Madrid to win 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 – 11/5 with BoyleSports
- Antonio Rudiger over 0.5 shots – 8/11 with bet365
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid are going to be seeing a lot of each other over the coming weeks as they prepare to face off in the Spanish Super Cup semi-finals on Wednesday (7pm GMT).
The city rivals will meet three times over the course of the next three-and-a-half weeks after being paired together in the last 16 of the Copa del Rey in Monday’s draw.
That game will take place at the Wanda Metropolitano on January 17 before a LaLiga encounter on February 4 at the Bernabeu. Before all that, though, is this week’s match-up in Saudi Arabia, where Real are narrow favourites with football betting sites to advance to the Super Cup final.
The Merengues arrive in Riyadh in excellent form, sitting top of the LaLiga table, unbeaten in 19 games in all competitions and primed to win a 13th Spanish Super Cup.
However, the only side to have beaten Carlo Ancelotti’s men all season are Atletico and the last time the teams met in this competition, Los Rojiblancos got one over on their city rivals.
Atleti will hope they can repeat that trick as they bid for a first Spanish Super Cup since 2014, but recent results haven’t been encouraging, while their form away from home leads us to lean towards backing Real to go and meet either Osasuna or Barcelona in Sunday's Spanish Super Cup final.
Real can claim bragging rights
Real have spoken a lot about the 3-1 loss to Atletico in September in the build-up to this game and clearly haven’t forgotten about their only defeat of the season.
Atletico raced into an early 2-0 lead and were comfortable winners in the end, but Real felt they hadn’t got the decisions from referee Alberola Rojas, who will again take charge of a Madrid derby.
Real aren’t happy with the official's appointment and that should only add fuel to the fire of a team playing pretty well, emerging from the winter break with a 1-0 win over Mallorca in the league and a 3-1 success at Arandina in the Copa del Rey.
Those victories make it 10 wins from the last 11 matches in all competitions for Los Blancos, who continue to chalk up the wins despite some key absentees, particularly in defence.
Eder Militao, David Alaba and Lucas Vazquez are all long-term absentees, yet Real’s defence hasn’t suffered too badly, conceding fewer goals than anyone else in LaLiga and keeping 10 clean sheets. The underlying statistics suggest Real’s excellent defensive performances are no fluke either, posting the lowest expected goals against in LaLiga.
Both teams possess difference-making talent going forward in the likes of Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Jr for Real and Alvaro Morata and Antoine Griezmann at Atletico, making a solid defensive structure a potential key to victory when assessing the match odds on betting sites.
Usually, it would be Atletico that could lay claim to having the stronger backline but they’ve lost some of their steely element from previous years under Diego Simeone.
They started 2024 by losing 4-3 to surprise title challengers Girona, a continuation of their patchy form which has resulted in them slipping to fifth in the LaLiga standings, 10 points adrift of Real.
A combination of a leaky defence – they’ve kept two clean sheets in the last 10 league games – and some poor results on the road have held Atletico back. Playing in Saudia Arabia is, therefore, unlikely to aid their cause.
That was the case last year when they lost in the Super Cup semi-finals to Athletic Bilbao and Real could be the right side to be on in the first part of this trilogy.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Tip 1: Real Madrid to win 28/25 with All British Sports
Don’t expect a runaway winner
Madrid derbies are often decided by fine margins with Atletico’s win in September only the sixth time in the last 20 meetings that one side has been two goals up at the end of 90 minutes.
These games have a tendency to be low-scoring – only two of the last 11 have gone over 2.5 goals in regulation time – which helps to keep them close and even with Atletico’s recent defensive issues, they are unlikely to be blown away.
Atleti lost nine games to Spanish opposition in 2023 and seven of those games finished 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 to their opponents.
That makes BoyleSports’ decision to boost the price of a Real win by one of those three scorelines an interesting proposition.
Both Madrid derbies and Spanish Super Cup games have a tendency to be tight, meaning there could be some value in backing a low-scoring Real win on betting apps.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Tip 2: Real Madrid to win 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 – 11/5 with BoyleSports
Rudiger ready for big Riyadh role
Antonio Rudiger has become an increasingly vital part of Real’s season, not least as one of the club’s last remaining fit centre-backs, but for his match-winning goal against Mallorca at the start of January.
Real had been struggling to break through Mallorca’s lines so Rudiger heading home from a Luke Modric corner 12 minutes from full-time was a big bonus.
That was the Germany international's first goal of the season but he has been trying his luck on a regular basis, registering at least one shot in 14 of his 24 appearances for Real this season.
Rudiger is a big threat from set pieces and Atletico had a job containing him when the sides met earlier in the season with the former Chelsea man registering two attempts.
Atletico were undone by a smart Girona set piece routine in their recent seven-goal thriller and Rudiger gets the nod as our final Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction to have at least one shot in Wednesday’s game.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Tip 3: Antonio Rudiger over 0.5 shots – 8/11 with bet365
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predictions
Get a free bet on football
For those looking to follow any of our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predictions or any other football betting tips, be sure to check out the latest sign up offers for the chance to earn a free bet,
Bet365 have the best price on Rudiger having over 0.5 shots on goal for Wednesday's game and they are currently offering new customers up to £30 in free bets when they sign up using the bet365 promo code INDY2023 and deposit at least £10.
Bet365 are also offering new users to their UK casino 50 free spins when they join.
Before you sign up and bet on the Spanish Super Cup with new UK betting sites, please read the terms and conditions of the offer and always gamble responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
