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Premier League relegation tip:
All three promoted teams were able to survive in the Premier League last term, but betting sites take a dim view of Luton Town’s prospects in the top flight this season.
The Hatters are odds-on (1/3) for the drop before a ball has been kicked, but Rob Edwards’ side might be capable of causing a few surprises as Kenilworth Road can be a fortress of sorts.
Sheffield United are the only other team trading at odds-on (8/13) after finishing second in the Championship last season, but the Blades have been building up to this stage over the past couple of seasons so we’d advise to look elsewhere for betting value.
Vincent Kompany's Burnley are given a far greater chance of survival than their fellow newcomers, but there’s reason to believe the Clarets might be among the strugglers during the 2023/24 season.
Although former Manchester City defender Kompany hit all the right notes last season, he’s still a relatively inexperienced manager who could find life tough in the top tier. Some football betting sites such as Betway are offering 9/2 on them going straight back down and it’s a bet we’re willing to take up.
Relegation odds: Bookies don’t always call it right
Twelve months ago, it was Bournemouth who were the odds-on favourites to drop back to the Championship and the Cherries’ odds shortened further after a bad start which saw Scott Parker leave the Vitality Stadium. Gary O’Neil was able to get a tune out of the Dorset outfit and now it’s the turn of Andoni Iraola to steer them in an upwards direction.
We’re not convinced Bournemouth should be as big as 11/5 for the drop considering Iraola is an unknown quantity in a very competitive division, plus Jefferson Lerma leaving for Crystal Palace won’t have helped their cause. We’d sooner back the Cherries to go down compared to the teams who are trading at shorter prices.
It’s also clear that Everton are likely to finish in the lower reaches of the Premier League, despite Sean Dyche proving himself to be a capable pair of hands last season. The former Burnley boss is accustomed to dealing with a tight budget and there’s not a huge amount of money available to the Merseyside outfit to strengthen key areas.
Somehow, Everton always seem to be able to find a way to survive and relegation odds of 3/1 with BetUK seem about right. That said, it’s not a bet we’ll be taking up as there’s better value to be had elsewhere.
Finding betting value in the odds on relegation
Wolves were looking like a good bet to go down during the first half of the 2022/23 season as Bruno Lage’s lacklustre outfit struggled for goals. The ship was steadied under Julen Lopetegui, but the Spaniard is now trading as one of the favourites in the Premier League sack race betting market.
Much depends on the funds available to Lopetegui in order to strengthen his squad at Molineux. Wolves ended the previous campaign badly and we suspect they’ll be among the sides occupying the lower regions of the division come the end of the 2023/24 season.
Parimatch have set a best price of 3/1 on Wolves to go down – there are worse bets to make ahead of the new campaign.
As for Nottingham Forest, Steve Cooper must address his team’s miserable away form if they’re to stay afloat for another season. While the City Ground’s cauldron of noise enabled Forest to manufacture lots of positive results last term, there was a real difficulty obtaining points on the road and it’s definitely worth a second look at the team’s relegation odds (5/2) this time around.
Relegation betting: Battle could be wide open
If the forthcoming campaign is anything like last season, we can expect a clutch of teams to be scrapping for survival and that includes Fulham, despite their lofty finish last time around.
The bookies certainly think there’s a chance the Cottagers could regress and be involved in a fairly customary battle against the drop. Unibet offer the best price at 7/2 for Fulham to drop.
The same might apply to Crystal Palace, who were without a win in 2023 when parting company with Patrick Vieira last season. They replaced the Frenchman with Roy Hodgson and the former England boss got an immediate reaction out of the Eagles. Hodgson has signed on at Selhurst Park for another year, but they look a little overpriced to us at 13/2 with Bet365.
Brentford might also be vulnerable, especially as they will have to operate without the suspended Ivan Toney. The striker being sidelined is a big blow for a Bees team who were able to finish comfortably clear of the relegation zone last term. However, they might find goals hard to come by this side of Christmas with Toney suspended until January.
West Ham are big outsiders in this betting market, but our eyes lit up at the 11/1 odds BetUK have handed the Hammers.
The Europa Conference League winners flirted with relegation last term but all was forgiven after continental success. David Moyes now has to cope with the departure of star man Declan Rice, so perhaps we will see his side struggle to balance domestic fixtures with European games even more this season.
Premier League relegation odds: Our best bets
To conclude, the two Premier League relegation bets we feel most strongly about are Wolves (3/1) and Burnley (9/2). If those odds are too short for your liking, the best way to maximise the value on these picks is to throw them in a double. BoyleSports will allow you to double up on the same slip, creating odds of over 13/1 on both Wolves and Burnley to go down.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
