Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool betting tips:
- Nottingham Forest/draw double chance – 8/5 William Hill
- Under 2.5 goals – 13/8 Unibet
- Corner handicap: Liverpool -2 – 17/20 BetUK
With Manchester City in derby action on Sunday and Arsenal travelling to face Sheffield United on Monday evening, Liverpool have the opportunity to put pressure on the chasing pack by winning at Nottingham Forest on Saturday afternoon (3pm).
The Merseysiders have enjoyed a successful week in the cup competitions, lifting the EFL Cup with a 1-0 victory over Chelsea in extra-time before advancing to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup with a 3-0 win against Southampton.
They now turn their attention to the Premier League, where they can extend their lead to four points ahead of Manchester City.
However, the City Ground has not been welcoming to the Reds. They did win an FA Cup match there in 2022 but are winless in their previous 13 league visits to play Forest, last collecting three points in this corner of Nottingham in 1984.
Football betting sites expect Jurgen Klopp’s side to come away with the win this time, in spite of their lengthy injury list.
However, the underlying data from 2023/24 and the historical head-to-head record suggests there could be value in siding with the home team, despite their struggles in the Premier League of late.
Forest's need for positive results has increased following the reduction of Everton's penalty for a financial fair play breach, which has dropped them into 17th place, four points clear of the drop zone.
Tough trip for the Reds
Liverpool have a slightly curious away record this season. They have only won around half of their league matches (seven from 13) yet they are only three points shy of having the joint-best tally in the division.
These are the standards that a title race against Pep Guardiola’s City brings, with every dropped point feeling catastrophic. It's why the Cityzens are still favourites in the Premier League odds to win the crown.
The Reds have generally been very good against the struggling sides too. They have played 15 matches against teams currently in the bottom half, with 13 wins and two draws giving them the best points-per-game average in such matches.
As one of the relevant fixtures in which they failed to win was at Stamford Bridge, that really says more about Chelsea’s struggles rather than any major failing on the part of Liverpool.
The question is whether battling on all fronts with an injury-ravaged squad will eventually catch up with them. If it occurs here, can Forest take advantage? They’ve arguably performed better against the bigger teams this season, albeit having suffered quite a few losses as you would expect.
Four of their six wins have come against Aston Villa, Chelsea, Newcastle and Tottenham, sides who are either in the hunt for Champions League qualification or who really should be based on their transfer spend.
Forest have also defeated West Ham, leaving a 2-1 victory over bottom side Sheffield United as their only win against a side starting the weekend in the bottom 10.
And while both teams were in FA Cup action on Wednesday evening, Forest played last Saturday whereas Liverpool had a two-hour slug fest with Chelsea at Wembley on Sunday. That experience will have taken an enormous physical and emotional toll on Klopp’s understrength squad.
As such, the odds with betting apps for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side to avoid defeat are worth consideration. Carrying this many injuries must catch up with Liverpool eventually, right?
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Tip 1: Nottingham Forest/draw double chance – 8/5 William Hill
A low scoring game?
The four meetings of these teams in the last two years have gone in different directions depending on the venue. At Anfield, Liverpool won 3-2 in 2022/23 and strolled to a 3-0 victory in October.
But in 180 minutes at the City Ground, the sides have delivered just two goals. Diogo Jota scored a 78th minute winner in the 2022 cup clash before Taiwo Awoniyi got the only goal of the league meeting last season.
This contest should also be close. Forest will be wary of what the Reds might do to them and the visitors may not have the players available to do that much.
The home side’s games have also been light on goals this term, with only Everton proving more profitable in the under 2.5 goals market.
Forest’s home matches with Aston Villa, Tottenham and West Ham all saw exactly two goals and there were only three in the City Ground clashes with Arsenal and Manchester United in the Premier League, and only one in the defeat to the Red Devils in the FA Cup.
Similarly, Liverpool won 2-0 at Burnley and Sheffield United, while they drew 1-1 at Luton. Their matches in this sort of fixture have been low scoring so neutrals may be well advised to look elsewhere for their Saturday afternoon entertainment.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals – 13/8 Unibet
Liverpool in the corner
Even if Forest upset the odds and avoid defeat, it seems inevitable that Liverpool will dominate the attacking statistics. Across the three Premier League meetings, the shot count is 54-30 in the Reds’ favour, with the on target tallies reading 21-13.
As two of the games were at Anfield, these margins were somewhat predictable. Yet it was in the one league game at the City Ground in which Liverpool dominated the corner count by the widest margin (11-2), even though the tally is 28-8 overall.
Arsenal, Aston Villa and Brentford all had at least nine corners more than the home side when they visited Forest this season so the Reds could win the count by at least three.
Only the Gunners and Manchester City have done so more times in 2023/24 while only Sheffield United have lost the corners battle by more than two more often than Forest. The home side will have a lot of set pieces to defend here.
We're taking the -2 handicap with BetUK at odds of 17/20, which pays out if Liverpool have three or more corners than Nuno's men. If they only have two more or less the bet will lose.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Tip 3: Corner handicap: Liverpool -2 – 17/20 with BetUK
Free bets for wagering on football
You can secure free bets by signing up for gambling sites online and wagering on football.
Parimatch are offering new customers £40 in bonuses for creating an account. All you need to do is sign up online, opt in on its promotion, deposit £10 via a debit card or Apple Pay and wager £10 on football on a selection that has odds of evens or greater.
As soon as your qualifying wager is settled, you'll receive £30 in free bets to use on football and a further £10 credit for Parimatch's online casino game Big Bass Bonanza.
Before you sign up, read all the terms and conditions of Parimatch's welcome offer. If you do bet on Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool or any other sport, please gamble responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
