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Newcastle vs Liverpool betting tips:
- Newcastle to win – 6/5 with Betway
- Over 2.5 goals – 1/2 with SpreadEx
- Over 4.5 cards – 21/50 with Unibet
Newcastle finished above Liverpool last season for the first time since 2011/12 and only the second time in the last two decades.
The two teams meet at St James’ Park on Sunday (4:30pm, Sky Sports) with each side looking for their second victory of the season having both dropped points in their one away game.
They were only separated by four points in 2022/23 and likely won’t be too far apart this season.
Football betting sites believe the Reds are more likely to finish in the top four this term so this match offers the Magpies a good opportunity to pull ahead in the early season standings.
Newcastle have a poor record in the head-to-head in recent times, but UK bookmakers are siding with a home win nonetheless.
They go into the match looking for their first victory against Jurgen Klopp’s side since 2015, having drawn four and lost nine of the last 13 clashes.
Newcastle vs Liverpool tips: Magpies to soar
The Magpies’ last win against Liverpool was so long ago that it was only Klopp’s seventh match in the Premier League. He’s now the third longest serving manager in the top four divisions of English football.
Eddie Howe can be confident of a victory here, even though he has lost 10 successive matches to Klopp. His side demolished Aston Villa in their last home game, winning 5-1.
They repeatedly tore through the visitors’ high defensive line in a style which has proven very problematic for the Reds over the last year or so.
At face value, Liverpool’s 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge on the opening weekend was a perfectly acceptable result. However, Chelsea were able to carve out five Opta-defined clear-cut chances in that match so undoubtedly had the opportunities to collect three points.
With Newcastle having more clinical forwards than the Blues, Alisson Becker may not be able to bail out his side as he so often has in the past.
While the Reds won this fixture last season, it was their only away victory against one of the other sides in the top six so it was the exception rather than the rule. Newcastle have only suffered one other home defeat since the start of 2022/23 and can continue that fine run with a win here.
Tip: Newcastle to win – 6/5 with Betway
Super Sunday goals galore
This is not a fixture which has featured many goals of late. Newcastle haven’t scored for 359 minutes across their last four home games against Liverpool, with the visitors only bagging three goals across the last three.
Yet the expected goal data from last season suggests this is the match most likely to see both teams score and to feature over 2.5 goals in the Premier League this weekend.
For all their problems last season, creating chances was not an issue for the Reds. They had the second highest xG figure in the top flight, with Newcastle next in line. Liverpool also scored four goals against the Magpies in 2022/23, one of only three sides to bag more than two.
It’s therefore safe to expect goals. At the time of writing the odds are better for over 2.5 goals than for both teams to score, so while either selection makes sense, take the former.
More cards than a birthday party
The Premier League has seen an early-season explosion in red cards. There have already been six after two weeks of this campaign when there were 30 in the whole of 2022/23.
It’s hard to predict when a sending off will occur but there should be plenty of bookings here. There have been 108 different referees in Premier League history and John Brooks – the man in charge of this match – has the highest yellow card per game average of any of them (4.48).
He was also joint-third in the division for punishing time-wasting with bookings, an offence for which Newcastle were among the leading offenders.
With both teams capable of countering well and Liverpool often wide open in midfield, tactical fouls may be the order of the day. This is a match where any number of cards feels possible.
Tip: Over 4.5 cards – 21/50 with Unibet
Get free bets on Newcastle vs Liverpool
The latest Premier League odds suggest both Liverpool (1/6) and Newcastle (2/7) are nailed-on for a top-six finish, but there might not be room for both of them in the top four.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
