Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Napoli vs Milan betting tips:
- Both teams to score and draw – 17/5 BetVictor
- Piotr Zielinski to score any time – 11/2 bet365
- Over 4.5 cards – 4/5 Unibet
The last two Serie A champions face off in Naples as Napoli host Milan in a crucial match at the top end of the standings on Sunday.
It has not been a straightforward transition for champions Napoli following the departure of Luciano Spalletti in the summer as his replacement Rudi Garcia has not been able to keep the team ahead of their rivals after nine games.
Napoli have dropped points in defeats to Lazio and Fiorentina at home and sit in fourth place in the table behind Inter, Milan and Juventus.
But, a victory on Sunday would lift Garcia’s men within a point of the Rossoneri to keep themselves in the conversation for a second successive Scudetto.
Gli Azzurri have odds of 8/1 with UK bookmakers to retain their crown, and a win over Milan would strengthen their case. They are entering the game off back-to-back wins, including their Champions League triumph over Union Berlin in midweek.
That’s more than Milan can say, who continued their stuttering start to their Champions League campaign with a 3-0 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain.
Stefano Pioli’s men are now in a battle to remain in the competition, but must also press their case in Serie A, where they’re one point off the pace being set by rivals Inter after suffering a 1-0 loss to Juventus last time out. The Rossoneri need a response at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
After looking at the best football betting sites, here are our predictions for the showdown.
Both teams to score and draw
The result is going to be a tough one to call as Napoli have been shaky at home in Serie A this season.
Garcia’s men have recorded wins over Sassuolo and Udinese, but were off the boil against Lazio and Fiorentina last time out at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Milan have been impressive on the road, winning four of their five away games. Their one defeat came in Milan in their scheduled away fixture to Inter at San Siro, which was a 5-1 hammering for Pioli’s men.
Napoli have been effective in the final third, scoring 20 goals in the campaign. But, they will be without the injured Victor Osimhen, who has scored six goals in eight games this term.
Matteo Politano has been extremely active with four goals and three assists in his nine games, while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored a brace in their win over Verona.
Milan have had issues in the final third, failing to score for the third Champions League game in a row in their defeat to PSG. Rafael Leao has not found the net since September, but Christian Pulisic has scored two in his last three Serie A games.
The Rossoneri might find a way to get on the scoresheet given Napoli’s shaky home form, although it may not be enough for a win. We’re backing both teams to score and a draw in Naples at 17/5 with BetVictor.
Zielinksi to score any time
Napoli will be relying on their other creative playeres to find the net in the absence of Osimhen.
They were able to edge out Union Berlin in the Champions League by keeping a clean sheet and a timely strike from Giacomo Raspadori, while Kvaratskhelia and Politano scored in their comfortable triumph over Verona.
Raspadori led the line against Verona and will likely be selected again through the middle against Milan. The Italy international has only scored once in Serie A this season in a 2-2 draw with Genoa in September.
If Gli Azzurri struggle to break down Milan from open play, inspiration may have to come from a set piece or even from the penalty spot. Zielinski has scored two goals at home this season, the best tally from a Napoli player outside of Osimhen.
There are good prices available with new betting sites, but we’re taking the 11/2 with bet365 for the Pole to score any time.
Look out for cards in Naples
Milan have the worst disciplinary record in Serie A this season.
The Rossoneri have had three players sent off, including two in their last two games, and have also collected 23 yellow cards.
Napoli on the other hand have been one the best behaved teams in the division, totalling 17 yellow and zero red cards.
There has been contrast in their demeanour on the field, and it could play into the result if Milan are unable to keep their full complement of players for the third Serie A game in a row.
The recent matches between the two sides suggest that there will be cards. In their Champions League quarter-final showdown last season, there were 13 cards in two over the two legs, including a red for Franck Zambo Anguissa.
The two league meetings also combined for 10 cards, notably eight in the fixture at San Siro. Given the way Milan are behaving at the moment, we could expect another high total.
The line has been set at 4.5 by bookmakers, and we’re taking odds of 4/5 on the over with Unibet. If you like the way statistics are trending there will be alternate options available at bigger prices.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
