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Man City vs Wolves betting tips
- Manchester City to win and BTTS – 15/8 Betway
- Phil Foden to score any time – 13/10 bet365
- Under 3.5 cards – 27/25 BetUK
Manchester City will look to clear another hurdle in their Premier League title bid at home to Wolves on Saturday evening (5.30pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
The standards set by City under Pep Guardiola have been absurd. The Premier League odds show they are odds-on to win the title for the fourth season in a row and they enter the weekend one point behind Arsenal but with a game in hand.
Yet they have fewer points than they had after 34 games in five of the last six seasons. It’s tough at the top. Football betting sites understandably make them ridiculously short-priced favourites to beat Wolves.
Yet Gary O’Neil’s side have five away wins this season. That’s only one fewer than Tottenham, the same as Chelsea and one more than Crystal Palace, and they all returned from the Etihad Stadium with a point this season. Can Wolves do Arsenal an enormous favour here?
Manchester City vs Wolves tips: City to win but visitors to draw blood
It’s obviously very unlikely. Look up the definition of mid-table in the dictionary and the Wolves logo will stare back at you.
According to Opta, there’s an 89 per cent chance they finish this season between 10th and 13th, so they will have nothing but pride on the line in the blue half of Manchester.
They have caused City problems in recent years, though, not least earlier this season when they won 2-1 at Molineux. Granted, Kevin De Bruyne was injured at that point, and he is now back and in fantastic form, but the Wolves defence restricted Erling Haaland to a single shot.
That has only happened five times when the Norwegian has played 90 minutes in a Premier League match, with City taking a solitary point from those games. FAO managers: that’s how you beat them. Simple.
Ultimately, this is a must-win game for Guardiola’s side. Even before we get to a lack of motivation for the visitors, based on the points-per-game averages of the teams City must face at home or away as appropriate, this is the easiest game in their final four.
With a rare mid-week off, the defending champions are as well rested as they can be in a ridiculously busy campaign and will inevitably collect the three points.
But betting sites obviously expect this, making a straight City win bet not worth our while. To get odds in our favour, we’ll incorporate a both teams to score selection.
Wolves have netted in three of the last four meetings in which they didn’t receive a first half red card.
City have seen this selection pay out 14 times this season, the joint-most in the Premier League, including in home matches against Bournemouth, Brighton and Fulham, the teams directly around Wolves in the table.
Man City vs Wolves prediction 1: Man City to win and BTTS – 15/8 Betway
Man City vs Wolves prediction: Foden can keep on rolling
City won the corresponding fixture 3-0 last season, thanks to a hat-trick from Erling Haaland. They won 5-1 at Molineux in 2022, with De Bruyne netting four times.
Either man would be a worthy any time goal scorer selection – albeit betting apps don’t make it worth your while to pick Haaland – but City’s man in form in front of goal is Phil Foden.
He has also scored in a win against Wolves in the past, if the head-to-head record is important. Foden missed the win at Nottingham Forest last week through illness, but he should be fit to return here and pick up where he left off.
Before his illness, Foden was firing on all cylinders. The England international has scored 16 league goals so far this season and 11 of them have occurred in his last 10 appearances. He has scored at the Bernabeu against Real Madrid in the last month too.
Foden is the favourite in the PFA Player of the Year betting. He can strengthen his case further by continuing his impressive form and scoring against Wolves
Man City vs Wolves prediction 2: Phil Foden to score any time – 13/10 bet365
Man City vs Wolves tips: Cards under wraps
The last meeting of these teams was one of just 12 Premier League matches this season in which there were nine cards, and the only one of them not to feature a red.
However, that wasn’t just extreme by these standards but also for games between these clubs. Only one of the seven preceding league clashes featured more than three cards and they saw just 2.4 on average.
Referee Craig Pawson has been issuing more cards than he used to in recent seasons, as have most Premier League whistlers. Even so, he is above average for matches which paid out on under 3.5 cards this season.
As are City. Only Everton have played more matches in which there were fewer than four cards, so with Wolves not needing to be overly physical with nothing to play for, we could see a game with a low card count.
Man City vs Wolves prediction 3: Under 3.5 cards – 27/25 BetUK
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Last Updated: 3rd May 2024, 07:30 AM
