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Luton vs Everton betting tips
- Luton to win – 8/5 BoyleSports
- Elijah Adebayo to score at any time – 47/20 BetUK
- Under 3.5 cards – 5/4 Unibet
Luton are in dire need of a win against Everton in a crucial Premier League contest for the relegation threatened hosts on Friday night (8pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
Tim Cahill scored the winner the last time these sides met at Kenilworth Road in a 2007 League Cup tie. The Hatters cannot afford to be on the receiving end of another defeat in their bid to preserve their top-flight status.
Football betting sites think their goose is already cooked. Luton are 2/9 to go down this season, and a look at the fixture list shows why.
Nottingham Forest are only a point above Rob Edwards’ side, but two of their remaining three games are against Sheffield United and Burnley. They could get six points there and Luton have a maximum of nine available.
On the positive side, Kenilworth Road will be rocking on Friday evening. But can the fans help carry the Premier League underdogs to a vital three points?
Luton vs Everton betting: Edwards' men to secure vital win
There are a couple of key things in Luton’s favour. For starters, they have already beaten Everton twice this season, having won 2-1 at Goodison Park in both the league and FA Cup.
The Hatters have amassed only nine victories in all competitions and just seven against Premier League opposition. They can approach this game knowing how to get the job done against Sean Dyche’s men.
The other potential upside is that Everton have nothing left to play for after a trying, rollercoaster season. Three home wins in the space of a week against Nottingham Forest, Liverpool and Brentford means the Toffees are safe for another season.
This can be a double-edged sword from Luton’s perspective, though. Everton can play with a rare freedom.
They would’ve been safe from relegation long ago had they been able to finish their chances – Everton have scored 37 goals from 49.6 expected goals – and they won’t have the burden of pressure here. The underlying data suggests they are likelier to win than betting sites think too.
But studies show that teams playing with nothing at stake at the end of Premier League seasons get worse, and Everton haven’t been great to start with. The Toffees have been fairly wretched on the road this season.
They have won none of their last nine away matches, a run in which they have lost six times and the aggregate scoreline is 19-4 to their collective opponents.
According to xG, Everton deserved a victory just three times when not at Goodison Park in 2023/24, and while two instances occurred against other newly promoted sides, Luton should have too much.
They have beaten Bournemouth, Brighton and Crystal Palace at home, three sides of a broadly similar standard to the Blues (if we ignore the points deduction), so the Hatters can win under the Friday night lights.
Luton vs Everton prediction 1: Luton to win – 8/5 with BoyleSports
Luton vs Everton prediction: Adebayo to notch important goal
If Luton are relegated as everyone expected at the start of the season, and the Premier League odds still do now, it won’t be down to a lack of goals.
The Hatters have scored 48 times with three games remaining. Only two teams have scored more and been relegated to the second tier since 1997. Their top two scorers have been Carlton Morris, with 10, and Elijah Adebayo with nine.
However, the latter leads the Kenilworth Road strikes count by seven to five and had been in fantastic form with seven goals in nine games prior to an injury.
Adebayo returned as a substitute in the loss at Wolves last weekend, so may not start here, but nobody on either side has scored more than three goals in their last 10 league games. If anybody can be the Hatters’ hero, it’s Adebayo.
Luton vs Everton prediction 2: Elijah Adebayo to score at any time – 47/20 BetUK
Luton vs Everton tips: Little card action at Kenilworth Road
Betting apps believe there are going to be quite a few bookings in this match. The odds imply that five cards is likelier than three-or-fewer, yet we like the odds of a low card count at Kenilworth Road.
All signs point towards a relatively busy evening for the referee, right? A team fighting for their lives at the bottom of the table is taking on a team managed by Sean Dyche. It usually suggests that there will be a lot of yellow on display.
Except that the form book suggests it won’t be. Luton’s games have seen a total of 124 cards, 3.5 per match, which is the fewest in the 2023/24 Premier League. Arsenal are next, on 125, and one above them are Everton.
Kenilworth Road is also the ground which has seen the joint-fewest matches pay out on over 3.5 cards this season. It’s tied with Goodison Park.
Referees might deny it, but they seemingly love to let things flow for an underdog. Only three times in their 17 home games have Luton received more than two cards. Combine that with Everton not needing to put a tackle in and under 3.5 cards looks a good value selection.
Luton vs Everton prediction 3: Under 3.5 cards – 5/4 Unibet
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Last Updated: 3rd May 2024, 03:33 PM
