Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Luton vs Aston Villa tips
- Aston Villa to win and BTTS – 19/10 William Hill
- Douglas Luiz to score or assist – 5/4 bet365
- Aston Villa over 2.5 cards – 13/8 Unibet
The stakes are high for both teams in the Premier League clash between Luton and Aston Villa at Kenilworth Road on Saturday evening (5.30pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
Everton’s successful appeal for the penalty for their financial fair play breach reduced their 10-point deduction down to six, moving them away from the relegation zone. What was a one-point gap for the Hatters is now four to Nottingham Forest in 17th place.
Luton’s relegation rivals play before them on Saturday, which could leave them up to seven points adrift before kick-off. The pressure is on Rob Edwards and his side for the clash with the Villans.
It is also a big game for Villa, who remain in fourth place ahead of Tottenham by five points, although that gap could also be cut before the evening contest.
Unai Emery’s men are searching for their third win on the bounce in the Premier League after defeating Fulham and Forest in their last outings.
Villa are odds-on with football betting sites to get the win at Kenilworth Road, while you can find a 17/5 price for the hosts to secure a vital three points in the relegation battle.
More goals at Kenilworth Road
Luton come into the clash off the back of a 6-2 hammering against Manchester City in the fifth round of the FA Cup. Edwards rung the changes and his team paid the price as Erling Haaland ran riot with five goals to dump the Hatters out of the competition.
Luton’s defensive capitulation has become a theme in recent weeks. Since keeping a clean sheet in a 4-0 win over Brighton at the end of January, Edwards’ side have shipped 19 goals in five games in all competitions, including 10 in their last two.
The challenges keep coming for the Hatters following Villa’s goal glut against Forest. Villa stormed into a 3-0 lead, but Nuno Espirito Santo’s side launched a comeback to reduce the deficit to one goal before Leon Bailey secured the game for the Midlands outfit.
Emery’s side have lost just one of their last 10 on the road and have scored in 14 of their last 15 league games in all competitions. The Hatters are also good for a goal, scoring in 13 straight Premier League matches.
We’re not intrigued by the price of 1/2 with betting sites for both teams to score, but pairing it with a Villa win gives us odds of 19/10 with William Hill.
Luton vs Aston Villa Tip 1: Aston Villa to win and BTTS – 19/10 William Hill
Douglas Luiz to keep on producing
Douglas Luiz has been a star in the final third this season with 13 goals involvements in the Premier League, trailing only Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey in a Villa shirt. Given his position in the middle of the park, it has been an impressive tally for the Brazilian.
He notched a brace against Nottingham Forest to put Villa in control, scoring his eighth and ninth league goals of the campaign.
Luiz had never scored more than six goals in a term, which he did last season, highlighting how much he has improved going forward under Emery’s tenure.
He’s comfortable sitting deep and using his range of passing to release Watkins and Bailey in the final third – see his pass to Watkins for his strike against Sheffield United.
You can see why the 25-year-old is attracting attention from several top clubs from around Europe. Manchester City may just be regretting the decision to allow him to leave in 2019.
Villa will look for him to dictate proceedings at Kenilworth Road, and with Luton’s defensive issues, Luiz could be in line for another productive day in the final third.
After looking at betting apps, we’re backing Luiz to score or assist at odds of 5/4 with bet365.
Luton vs Aston Villa Tip 2: Douglas Luiz to score or assist – 5/4 bet365
One eye on Villa’s discipline
Villa’s quest to finish in the Champions League spots will hinge on several factors this season, but discipline could prove important.
Emery’s men are still considered ahead of Tottenham to finish in fourth in the Premier League top four odds and given their form it’s hard to argue against them qualifying for the Champions League.
Villa are also creeping up the disciplinary charts, only Chelsea and Sheffield United have collected more yellow cards than the Villans in the campaign.
Villa have toned down their aggression in recent weeks after a tough spell over the Christmas and New Year period where they accrued 18 cautions in five league matches.
But, Kenilworth Road can provide a hostile atmosphere and Luton like to be physical with their opponents. We like the value for over 2.5 Aston Villa cards at 13/8 with Unibet.
Luton vs Aston Villa Tip 3: Aston Villa over 2.5 cards – 13/8 Unibet
How to get free bets on football
By signing up for gambling sites you can secure free bets and more for betting on football.
BetVictor are offering £40 in bonuses to new customers that sign up online. All you have to do is create an account, opt in on its welcome offer, deposit £10 via debit card or Apple Pay and bet £10 on a football selection of evens or greater.
Once your qualifying wager is settled, you’ll receive £40 in free bets to use on the sportsbook on a range of football markets.
Before signing up to BetVictor, please read all the terms and conditions of its welcome offer. As with all betting activity, please gamble responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
