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Liverpool vs Manchester United betting tips:
- Liverpool win and under 3.5 goals – 15/8 BetUK
- Mohamed Salah to score two or more goals – 15/4 BoyleSports
- Card Handicap, Manchester United -1 – 15/8 bet365
They could well be deposed at the top of the Premier League table by the time this match kicks off (4.30pm, Sky Sports Main Event) but ‘Liverpool 2.0’ are having a better season than even their most optimistic supporters will have hoped for in the summer.
The same can not be said for their opponents on Sunday, and one of their fiercest rivals, Manchester United.
Dumped out of the Champions League in midweek with barely a whimper, the Red Devils will travel to Merseyside without up to 11 senior players for various reasons.
But even a full-strength United side would be underdogs here considering Liverpool’s phenomenal home record.
The Reds are priced around 1/3 by football betting sites to win this match. They were available at 7/5 in the Premier League odds for the corresponding fixture last season and won 7-0 so what can we expect this weekend?
Reds to win a tighter than expected match
If there’s one thing United can cling to it’s that Liverpool’s form has been very patchy of late.
They have needed goals in the last 10 minutes in three of their last four league games to earn points (drawing at Manchester City before beating Fulham and Crystal Palace) while the performance in their victory at Sheffield United was hardly awe-inspiring.
But what Jurgen Klopp can point to is an impeccable run of form at Anfield.
Prior to defeating the Cottagers 4-3 last time out, Liverpool had won all previous 10 home games at Anfield in the 2023/24 season by at least a two-goal margin, the longest such run in club history.
The Reds have had much the better of the recent head-to-head with United too. Even allowing for the Red Devils winning 2-1 at Old Trafford last season, the aggregate score from the last five clashes is 21-4 in Liverpool’s favour.
United are also winless in their last eight visits to Anfield, since a late Wayne Rooney goal earned them a 1-0 victory in January 2016.
Even if we ignore their record against Liverpool, Erik ten Hag’s side have had a serious Achilles heel since he joined the club: they have been poor against good teams, especially on the road.
Last season, their only away victory against any of the eventual top nine teams was secured at Fulham with a 93rd minute goal (and they won there last month with a 91st minute effort, coincidentally).
In 2022/23, they could at least point to a decent record against the better sides at Old Trafford but that has since disintegrated.
Going into match week 17, United have played five matches against the current top eight and lost them all, 12-2 on aggregate.
All such runs end eventually. But with Liverpool unstoppable at home and playing in front of their largest crowd for over 40 years (thanks to a newly expanded Anfield) and United low on confidence and low on available players, it’s hard to see the visitors dogging out a draw, much less a famous win.
The odds for a Liverpool victory are too skinny to take so we’ll combine that with there being under 3.5 goals.
That might seem counter intuitive after last season's 7-0 but the visitors will be without their top chance creator (Bruno Fernandes) so will hunker down and aim to hit the Reds on the break.
Liverpool have struggled against low-block teams in recent weeks, so while they should get the job done, it may be by fewer goals than many think.
Liverpool vs Man Utd Tip 1: Liverpool win and Under 3.5 goals – 15/8 with BetUK
Salah to bag a brace
Mohamed Salah has had a strange relationship with United during his time with Liverpool.
In his first six appearances against them he scored just once and didn’t assist any, but in the six games since he has bagged 11 goals himself and set up a further four.
While always hugely likely to start this match, he was one of a number of key players, including Trent Alexander-Arnold, Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk, rested for the Reds’ Europa League defeat to Union Saint-Gilloise.
The Egyptian should be raring to go here.
Despite all his goals against the Red Devils, Salah has only scored the opener once. However, he has scored two-or-more goals on four occasions.
United will have lots of last-ditch defending to do and match referee Michael Oliver awards penalties more frequently than any long-serving Premier League ref.
It’s a combination which could only increase Salah’s chances of scoring twice. We're backing him to find the net twice or more at Anfield at odds of 15/4 with BoyleSports.
Liverpool vs Man Utd Tip 2: Mohamed Salah to score two or more goals – 15/4 with BoyleSports
United to collect cards before Christmas
Whether he points to the spot or not, Oliver will likely need his notebook.
Despite being one of the division's more card-averse officials, like his colleagues he has seen an increase in the 2023/24 season and has issued an average of four yellow cards per match this term.
Oliver took charge of the Old Trafford meeting of these teams last season and booked three United players and only one from Liverpool.
The Red Devils have topped the yellow card count in the last five meetings and by a combined total of 17 to four.
While United haven’t always overcome a -1 card handicap in those matches, this is likely to be very much an ‘attack vs. defence’ match so it would be a surprise if they didn’t on Sunday.
So after looking at betting apps, we're backing United to finish the game with two more cards than Liverpool's total on the -1 card handicap at odds of 15/8 with bet365.
Liverpool vs Man Utd Tip 3: Card Handicap, Manchester United -1 – 15/8 with bet365
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
