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Las Palmas vs Barcelona predictions
- Draw/Barcelona double result – 15/4 with BetMGM
- Both teams to score: No – 21/20 with BetVictor
- Alex Suarez to be shown a card – 10/3 with bet365
Barcelona head to Gran Canaria on Thursday, not in search of some winter sun but rather three points as they seek to stay in contact at the top end of LaLiga (8.30pm GMT, Viaplay Sports 1).
The defending champions ended 2023 in fourth place, seven points behind leaders Real Madrid, who could be even further ahead if they win their clash against Mallorca on Wednesday.
Football betting sites have pushed Barca out to 10/1 to retain their Spanish title and a win against Las Palmas in their first game after the winter break is, therefore, a must if their championship aims are to remain realistic.
But that could be easier said than done with Los Amarillos having enjoyed a strong first half to the season on their return to LaLiga.
Las Palmas have only lost once at the Gran Canaria Stadium and given Barcelona’s recent patchy away form, this looks a tough test for Xavi’s side.
Having looked at a variety of markets on betting sites, here are our three best bets for the game.
Late drama on the cards
Goals late on in matches were a theme for both these sides through the first half of the season and this game could take a while to open up.
Barcelona were grateful to a Sergi Roberto goal in the final 10 minutes to defeat bottom of the table Almeria 3-2 before the winter break, ending a run of three games without a win for Xavi’s men.
It was a much-needed result for a team that’s seemingly lost the steely defensive edge that was so key to their title victory last season.
However, the news Inigo Martinez could be back for this game would serve as a significant boost to Barca’s backline. The summer signing looked a good addition at the heart of the defence before his injury.
Martinez’s return to face the joint-second lowest scorers in LaLiga and Frenkie De Jong’s availability following suspension are much needed with Pedri and Gavi unavailable, and bookmakers believe there’s enough quality in the visiting side to see off Las Palmas.
Betting apps have Barcelona at odds-on for the win that would stretch their unbeaten run away from home in the league this season to nine games. But of those nine games, Barca have only won three, being held to a draw in four of the last five outings, and they are unlikely to run away with this one.
They’ll need to be patient against a Las Palmas team that likes to keep possession and has already turned over Atletico Madrid at home this season.
Garcia Pimienta’s men certainly won’t roll over, but they have developed a nasty habit of conceding late goals, which could prove the difference between these two.
Of the 15 goals Las Palmas have conceded in LaLiga this season, 12 have come in the last half an hour of games and before the winter break, they conceded late on in a defeat to Atletico Bilbao and draw with Cadiz.
No team has scored more goals (15) in the final 15 minutes of LaLiga matches this season than Barcelona, who's underlying statistics paint the picture of an attack that should be scoring more.
Barca have the highest expected goals (40.7) in the division and average the most shots on target per game (6.6), but have also missed the most big chances (48), according to Fotmob.
Xavi’s men have been slow starters all season and Las Palmas, who have been level at the break in 10 of their 18 league games, have shown they can frustrate the opposition.
With our first Las Palmas vs Barcelona prediction, we’re backing the draw/Barcelona double result at 15/4 with BetMGM. That means the bet will win if the game is a draw at half-time but Barca goes on to win.
Las Palmas vs Barcelona Tip 1: Draw/Barcelona double result – 15/4 with BetMGM
Goals in short supply
Entering this midweek round of matches, only Real Madrid had conceded fewer goals (11) than Las Palmas (15) in LaLiga.
They significantly outperformed their expected goals against figure of 24.2 in the first half of the campaign thanks to some outstanding work from goalkeeper Alvaro Valles.
He’s kept three clean sheets in eight home games and will be hopeful of another big night against a Barca attack that’s seen Robert Lewandowski misfire on a worryingly regular basis.
Yet that defensive solidity has come at the expense of being able to find the back of the net with only Alaves (nine) failing to score in more LaLiga games than Las Palmas (eight) this season.
Barca have only managed two away clean sheets this season, but this looks like a good opportunity to record a third, particularly if Martinez returns.
We’re expecting the champions to eventually find a way through, but backing one or both teams not to score, which has landed in 11 of Las Palmas’ 18 games, at 21/20 may offer some insurance should Barca’s attack have an off-night.
Las Palmas vs Barcelona Tip 2: Both teams to score: No – 21/20 with BetVictor
Suarez faces testing evening
Barcelona loanee Julian Araujo will miss the meeting with his parent club due to a clause in his loan agreement and Alex Suarez looks likely to come in at right-back for Las Palmas.
Suarez faces a tough night’s work up against an in-form Raphinha, who has registered five goal contributions across his last four games.
Stopping Raphinha will be key to keeping Barca’s attack quiet, but that’s not the only problem facing Suarez.
Marauding full-back Joao Cancelo is expected to play at left-back behind Raphinha and will get forward at every opportunity.
No one averages more dribbles per game for Barcelona than Cancelo (2.5) and Suarez, who has shown he isn’t afraid to get stuck in with 1.9 tackles per game on average, will need to tread carefully.
For our final Las Palmas vs Barcelona prediction, we’re backing Suarez to earn his third caution of the season.
Las Palmas vs Barcelona Tip 3: Alex Suarez to be shown a card – 10/3 with bet365
Free bets on LaLiga
If you are planning to bet on Las Palmas vs Barcelona, or any of Thursday's LaLiga games, it might be wise to check out what’s on offer from new betting sites.
For example, BetMGM offer a ‘Bet £10, Get £40’ sign-up deal whereby new customers that place a £10 bet on Barca's trip to Gran Canaria can earn £40 in free bets, regardless of whether their wager is successful or not.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
