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Juventus vs Inter Milan betting tips
- Inter Milan to win & under 3.5 goals – 19/10 with Betway
- Federico Chiesa over 0.5 shots on target – 8/11 with bet365
- A penalty in the match – 11/5 with BetMGM
There’s plenty riding on the latest edition of the Derby d’Italia on Sunday when Serie A’s top two sides face off in Turin (TNT Sports 1, 7.45pm).
Inter Milan have exploded out of the blocks, winning 10 of their first 12 league games to claim the early advantage.
Football betting sites make Simone Inzaghi’s team odds-on to kick on from their excellent start and claim their second Scudetto in the last 14 years.
Fierce rivals Juventus will hope to have plenty to say about that and are only two points adrift of Inter thanks to a run of five successive wins before November’s international break.
The Old Lady now have their sights set on overtaking Inter with a win on Sunday but may find their momentum halted by the class act in the division.
Nerazzurri may nab the points
These two are no strangers to slugging it out for the title, although neither could lay a glove on runaway winners Napoli last season.
That didn’t make their four league and cup meetings any less compelling with Juve doing the double over Inter in Serie A before Inzaghi’s men got their revenge by knocking the Bianconeri out of the Coppa Italia on their way to lifting the trophy.
Inter were unfortunate not to complete a Coppa Italia-Champions League double when narrowly losing in the European final to Manchester City but seem to have taken the positives from their run to the decider.
Despite a significant turnover of players in the summer, Inzaghi has quickly knocked his new-look side into shape, helped by Lautaro Martinez assuming greater responsibility following the departures of Romelu Lukaku and Edin Dzeko.
Martinez has led by example for Inter, scoring a league-high 12 goals in 12 games, and has a good record in the Derby d’Italia, recording five goal contributions (three goals, two assists).
The Argentine, along with the league’s leading creative forces Marcus Thuram (five assists) and Federico Dimarco (four), will certainly test Juventus' miserly defence.
Juve had kept six clean sheets in a row before Cagliari grabbed a consolation goal in their 2-1 defeat in Turin before the international break.
Juventus have conceded seven goals this season, one more than Inter, but have the better expected goals against figure of 7.7 to Inter’s 8.3, according to Fbref.
Nerazzurri shot stopper Yann Sommer has the best save percentage (81.3%) in Serie A, but Juve gloveman Wojciech Szczesny isn’t far behind (80%).
So, betting sites are right to forecast this match will be low-scoring with none of their meetings last season producing more than threee goals.
It’s set up as a defensive tussle but with a slight edge going to Inter given the form of Martinez and co, and Juventus missing a few key players through injury and suspension.
Juve could be light in midfield, especially if Manuel Locatelli can’t overcome a rib injury in time to play, while they don’t pose the same threat going forward with Dusan Vlahovic and Federico Chiesa managing four goals each.
Inter have won 12 of their last 14 Serie A matches and have the difference makers that could crack Juventus’ defensive code. With our first Juventus vs Inter Milan prediction, we’re backing Inter to win and under 3.5 goals at 19/10 with Betway.
Juventus vs Inter Milan tip 1: Inter to win & under 3.5 goals – 19/10 with Betway
Chiesa to keep Sommer on his toes
If Juventus are to breach Serie A’s best defence, they’ll need to make sure the in-form Chiesa gets on the ball as much as possible.
The 26-year-old was the Old Lady’s stand out forward before the international break, despite failing to add to his haul of four goals.
He then went away with Italy, where he was vital in helping them qualify for Euro 2024, scoring twice against North Macedonia and registering 10 shots across two games.
Chiesa and Vlahovic have both registered 25 shots on goal in Serie A this season, but the former has been slightly more accurate with his effort.
No one allows fewer shots per game than Inter this season but Chiesa’s confidence is high and he may register at least one shot on target for the fifth time in his last six domestic appearances.
Juventus vs Inter Milan tip 2: Federico Chiesa over 0.5 shots on target – 8/11 with bet365
Rivals to be put on the spot?
There hasn’t been a goalless Derby d’Italia in the last nine meetings, but with both defences so strong, it’s reasonable to wonder where a goal might come from.
Looking at the history of this fixture and Inter’s record this season, the potential for either side to get a golden opportunity from the penalty spot appears high.
Eight penalties have been awarded across the last nine games, while no side has been awarded more spot kicks than Inter this term.
Of the six penalties Inter have won, three have been earned by the tricky Marcus Thuram, who will no doubt be keen to perform well against the club where his father had so much success.
Marco Guida, the referee in charge of the derby, has awarded three penalties in his last four games and we’re backing him to point to the spot again with our final Juventus vs Inter Milan prediction.
Juventus vs Inter Milan tip 3: A penalty in the match – 11/5 with BetMGM
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
