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Ivory Coast vs DR Congo betting tips
- DR Congo to qualify – 6/4 with BetUK
- Over 0.5 DR Congo goals – 8/11 with bet365
- A penalty in the match – 7/4 with BetMGM
Ivory Coast must be wondering if their name is already on the trophy at the Africa Cup of Nations with the hosts having experienced a remarkable and unlikely run through to Wednesday’s semi-final against DR Congo (8pm GMT, BBC Three & Sky Sports).
The Elephants had looked set for a shock early exit from the 34th edition of the tournament after losing two of their three group games, including their heaviest-ever home defeat – a 4-0 thrashing by Equatorial Guinea.
But having scraped into the last-16 as one of the best third-placed sides from the group stage, Ivory Coast have gone on to eliminate defending champions Senegal and Mali, coming from behind in both instances to advance.
They needed a penalty shootout to stun Senegal, while they overcame Odilon Kossounou’s first-half red card to beat Mali 2-1 in extra time, scoring the winner with the last kick of the game.
The way they’ve come back from the dead at each stage of the competition has seen them dubbed the Zombie Elephants and they are favourites with football betting sites to continue their progression to the final at DR Congo's expense.
The Leopards’ run to their sixth Afcon semi-final has had its own fair share of drama, featuring a penalty shootout win over Egypt in the last 16 before coming from behind to beat Guinea 3-1 in the quarter-finals.
Sebastien Desabre’s men have yet to taste defeat at this Afcon, but they’ve also only won once inside 90 minutes and fell to the Ivory Coast the last time they reached the semi-finals in 2015.
But in a tournament that’s been full of surprises so far, the host's luck could run out against a well-organised and determined opponent in DR Congo.
Leopards hunting final berth
Ivory Coast are odds-on with gambling sites to reach their fifth final and first since they won their second title in 2015.
On paper, you can understand why the online bookmakers are siding with the hosts, who boast a squad packed full of Premier League regulars and some of the top talent Europe has to offer.
But those talent levels haven’t been reflected on the pitch with the Elephants winning once inside 90 minutes at the tournament and looking extremely disorganised at times.
Sacking head coach Jean-Louis Gasset after the group stage and naming Emerse Fae as interim manager has seen a change in attitude, but tactically, they still appear vulnerable.
Ivory Coast have conceded seven goals so far, as many as the other three semi-finalists at Afcon combined while their expected goals against figure of 5.7 is the fifth highest in the tournament.
They also aren’t at full strength with Kossounou and the match-winner from the quarter-finals Oumar Diakite both suspended.
Those absences won't alter Ivory Coast's usual gameplan, which will be to try and dominate possession before prising DR Congo open. That’s likely to be easier said than done against this Leopards team though.
DR Congo have allowed the fewest shots on goal of any of the four semi-finalists and have shown themselves to be excellent in transition, making the most of the 37 per cent of possession they had in the quarter-finals against Guinea to score three times.
Brentford’s Yoane Wissa scored his second goal of the tournament in that quarter-final win and was generally excellent. His combination on the left with ex-West Ham man Arthur Masuaku, who is enjoying a great Afcon, will pose a big danger to the Ivory Coast.
DR Congo look a far more solid unit than Ivory Coast but the lack of a killer instinct they’ve demonstrated by drawing four of their five games, coupled with the Elephants’ knack for scoring late goals, makes the underdogs tough to trust to get the job done in 90 minutes.
But the 6/4 on offer at BetUK to qualify for the final is big enough to back them to move on and finally finish off the Zombie Elephants.
Ivory Coast vs DR Congo Tip 1: DR Congo to qualify – 6/4 with BetUK
DR Congo may expose Ivory Coast flaws
Afcon semi-finals have a tendency to produce a decent number of goals with last four ties averaging 2.5 goals per game over the last 10 tournaments.
That helps to make backing DR Congo to score in this game at 8/11 with bet365 look a worthwhile option. The price may not be massive but in the context of the Leopards’ attacking performances and Ivory Coast’s defensive deficiencies at Afcon so far, they may turn out to be fairly generous odds.
Only Nigeria (8.6) have a better expected goals figure at this year’s Afcon than DR Congo (8.5), who have only failed to score once at this tournament and averaged close to two goals per game during qualifying.
They’ve averaged more shots on target per game at Afcon than any of the other semi-finalists and face an Ivory Coast side that’s conceded 18 shots on target, the second-most at the tournament.
DR Congo’s ability to break quickly and the form of the likes of Wissa and Theo Bongonda makes them a serious threat to Ivory Coast’s leaky defence.
Ivory Coast vs DR Congo Tip 2: Over 0.5 DR Congo goals – 8/11 with bet365
Semi-finalists put on the spot
Another reason to feel good about DR Congo’s chances of scoring in the semi-finals is Ivory Coast’s recent spate of penalties.
They’ve conceded two at Afcon so far with Mali missing from the spot in the quarter-finals, while Nigeria’s William Troost-Ekong tucked his penalty away against them in the group stage.
Ivory Coast have also been awarded one penalty, dispatched expertly by Franck Kessie in the last-16. That was the fourth penalty the Elephants have won in the last eight games and they might get another chance from 12 yards against DR Congo.
The Leopards have also conceded two penalties while being awarded two at Afcon with a 50 per cent success rate from the spot.
DR Congo were also awarded a penalty when these sides met in the Afcon semi-finals in 2015 and there’s a chance history repeats itself on Wednesday evening.
Ivory Coast vs DR Congo Tip 3: A penalty in the match – 7/4 with BetMGM
Africa Cup of Nations free bet offers
For those looking to follow our Ivory Coast vs DR Congo predictions, make sure to check to see whether you are eligible for some of the free bet offers currently on the market before placing a wager.
William Hill are currently giving new customers £30 in free bets when they open an account. Once you’ve registered, deposit and bet a minimum of £10 on a selection with minimum odds of 1/2 (1.5).
Once the qualifying bet has been settled, users will be credited with three £10 free bet tokens to use on the Africa Cup of Nations, or any other sport, while fans of casino sites can enjoy some of the UK slots on offer at William Hill's casino.
Before signing up with any new betting sites, always read the terms and conditions first and if you do have a bet this week, please gamble responsibly.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
