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Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid betting tips
- Inter Milan to win & under 3.5 goals – 11/8 with Betway
- Hakan Calhanoglu to score or assist at any time – 7/5 with bet365
- Lautaro Martinez over 1.5 fouls – 5/4 with William Hill
Diego Simeone returns to Inter Milan for the first time as a manager on Tuesday night. bringing his Atletico Madrid side to San Siro for the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie (8pm, TNT Sports 1).
Simeone spent two seasons with Inter and was part of the team that won the Uefa Cup in 1998 before joining Lazio in 1999, where he was teammates with current Nerazzurri boss Simone Inzaghi.
There, they won the Serie A title, and both have enjoyed plenty of success since hanging up their boots. Both have won domestic silverware with their current clubs and guided them to the Champions League final, only to come up short with Atletico losing two deciders to Real Madrid, while Manchester City bested Inter in last year’s final.
The Champions League odds suggest the winner of this tie could make another deep run in the competition, with both in the top eight in the betting.
The prices on football betting sites suggest it will be Inter moving on to the quarter-finals with the Italians odds-on on to qualify. They’ll need a good result at home to take to Madrid if they are to reach the last eight and Inzaghi will like his chance of getting one over on his old teammate given Inter's recent form.
Super Inter too sharp for leaky Atleti
Inter warmed up for Tuesday’s first leg with an emphatic 4-0 victory over Salernitana at home, a result which moved them nine points clear at the top of the Serie A standings.
With one hand firmly on the Scudetto, the Nerazzurri can turn their attention back to Europe having come through the Champions League group stage unbeaten, albeit as runners-up in their section to Real Sociedad.
They won two out of three at home in the group phase, extending their unbeaten European run at San Siro to eight matches. It’s perhaps not a surprise they are so strong at home in the Champions League when taking a broader look at their record at San Siro in all competitions, which features 12 wins from 16 games this season.
They’ve conceded just seven goals across Serie A and the Champions League at home this term, although a free-scoring Atletico Madrid side will hope to put that to the test.
Atleti are a different team from the one that reached European finals in the past. They’ve lost some of that defensive know-how and steely edge that made them such tough opponents, and Simeone has pivoted away from that approach slightly to make his team more positive.
Only Manchester City (18) scored more goals in the group stage of the Champions League than Atletico (17) but they head into this first leg without the competition’s joint-top scorer Alvaro Morata, who is sidelined with a knee injury.
Morata and defender Jose Gimenez are two big misses for Atletico, who need all the help they can get in Milan based on their patchy away record.
They’ve won two of the last 11 on the road in all competitions, while they’ve lost half of their previous 10 away matches in the Champions League.
To take something from their first leg, Atleti will have to return to their roots under Simeone, but that’s easier said than done and Inter are not a side to experiment against.
Before last season, Inter hadn’t won a Champions League knockout tie since the 2010/11 campaign. They laid plenty of those European ghosts to rest in their run to last season’s final and look even stronger this time around.
It won’t be easy against Atletico, it rarely is, but Inter have the quality in the likes of Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Thuram, Nicolo Barella and Hakan Calhanoglu to get the better of the Spaniards.
Inter’s exceptional defensive record at home, coupled with how tight the first legs of knockout ties tend to be, points to a low-scoring home win as being a top option on betting apps.
Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid Tip 1: Inter Milan to win & under 3.5 goals – 11/8 with Betway
Hosts can count on Calhanoglu
Inter’s Calhanoglu rated himself amongst Europe’s top five midfielders last year and his performances this season have made it tough to argue against him.
The Turkey international has thrived as a deep-lying playmaker, or regista as the Italians call it, orchestrating a lot of Inter’s good play.
Despite playing from a deeper position, Calhanoglu has still managed to bag himself 11 goals and three assists, putting him third on the list of goal contributions for Inter this season, behind Martinez (25) and Thuram (19).
The majority of those goals have come from the penalty spot, but a game rarely goes by when the ex-AC Milan midfielder doesn’t have at least one shot on goal from open play.
Couple his regularity for getting shots off, his status as Inter’s penalty taker, and fantastic range of passing, and Calhanoglu has several avenues to add to his goal involvement tally against Atletico.
Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid Tip 2: Hakan Calhanoglu to score or assist at any time – 7/5 with bet365
Fiery Martinez may fall foul of strict official
Romania’s Istvan Kovacs will take charge of the first leg and given both sides' tendency for gamesmanship, he faces a busy night.
Kovacs has tried to lay down the law in his four previous Champions League appointments this season, resulting in him awarding an above average 24.25 fouls and 4.5 yellow cards per game.
That makes the fouls and card markets on betting sites worth a look for a fixture that has the potential to get a bit tetchy.
There’s no shortage of candidates to get on the wrong side of the referee, but Inter’s top scorer Martinez is one that stands out.
The Argentine is 15th amongst all Serie A players for fouls committed this season, while he’s picked up two yellow cards in the Champions League. He’s a physical striker with a temper and won’t enjoy one or two of Atletico’s methods.
He’s odds-on with gambling sites to have at least one foul in the game and some bookmakers don’t make him a much bigger price to go over 1.5 fouls.
But William Hill go 5/4 on him to commit two or more fouls. It’s a bet that has landed in each of Martinez’s last four appearances for Inter and in three of the Nerazzurri’s seven Champions League knockout stage games last season.
Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid Tip 3: Lautaro Martinez over 1.5 fouls – 5/4 with William Hill
Get free bets to use on the Champions League
For those keen to follow any of our Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid predictions, check to see if you are eligible for free bets to wager on the first leg.
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Check the terms and conditions of any welcome offers before signing up for new betting sites and if you do have a bet on the Champions League this week, remember to gamble responsibly.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
