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Fulham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers betting tips:
- Wolves to win – 43/20 with Bet UK
- Under 2.5 goals – 31/40 with Betway
- Most Cards: Wolves – 22/25 with Unibet
Monday Night Football takes us to Craven Cottage this week (8pm, Sky Sports Main Event) and a match between two teams who, if not in immediate relegation trouble at present, could certainly do with a win.
This is truer for Fulham, who go into the game seven points above the relegation zone.
The gap would be just three were not for Everton’s 10-point deduction, though, so they will hope to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers and draw level with them on 15 points.
According to football betting sites, Marco Silva’s side are favoured to prevail, though the margin between the Premier League odds for a home and away win are the third closest of this weekend.
A look at Wolves’ recent form shows why this is a difficult match to predict. Here are our tips for the showdown at Craven Cottage.
Wolves to feast at the Cottage
After the first six games of the season, Fulham had eight points and Wolves only four.
However, the tables have since turned with the visitors leading 11-4 across matches seven to 12, with only four teams in the division earning more points than Wolves in that period.
While that illustrates that Gary O’Neil’s men are in the better form, there was a bump in the road. Wolves’ last away match saw them lose, handing Sheffield United their only win of the campaign.
Having also drawn at Luton, Wanderers’ form on the road isn’t overly inspiring, although they did collect one-goal wins at Bournemouth and Everton.
The head-to-head record for these teams also suggests we should be in for a close game. Both meetings last season ended all square – 0-0 in the West Midlands, 1-1 at the Cottage – and none of the last six clashes has been settled by more than a single goal.
Whether matches played across five years (thanks to Fulham’s previous yo-yoing between divisions) can tell us anything is up for debate. But Wolves are unbeaten in the last six meetings and the underlying data for 2023/24 is strongly in their favour too.
The expected goal statistics from FBRef imply Fulham have only deserved to win one match so far this season, with their total of 12 points six more than they have theoretically merited. Only Manchester United have overachieved by a wider margin.
The problem with xG models is that they are blissfully unaware of injuries and suspensions.
Fulham will be missing Joao Palhinha thanks to him accumulating five yellow cards, while Wolves will be without Craig Dawson for the same reason.
The visitors also won’t have Pedro Neto thanks to a thigh problem and any team would miss the league’s leading assist provider. Even in Neto’s absence, the visitors should have more about them going forward.
Fulham have looked fairly toothless since losing Aleksandar Mitrovic – only two sides generated fewer expected goals in the Premier League across the first 12 match weeks, and they were newly promoted – so we're backing Wolves for an away win.
Fulham vs Wolves Tip 1: Wolves to win – 43/20 with Bet UK
Goals are mostly off the menu
The recent history of matches between Fulham and Wolves reads like some kind of binary joke. Starting at the most recent and working backwards, the last six have been 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1.
While chances were obviously squandered in those games, none of them tallied more than 2.7 expected goals so it’s not as if the score lines were hugely unjust.
Even the two meetings prior to that run, which took place in the Championship, both ended in 2-0 home wins. Perhaps these teams used up their share of excitement with a 3-3 draw in 2015 and a 4-4 thriller the following year?
Whatever the reason for the repeated close games in recent times, the trend should continue Monday night.
Burnley’s goal against West Ham on Saturday means no top flight club has scored fewer than Fulham this term and only Everton have failed to score on more occasions.
It helps explain why only five of their 12 matches have featured at least three goals.
It’s similar for Wolves away from Molineux. Three of the six games saw fewer than three goals and the two which had exactly three both saw one scored in the 88th minute or later.
Everything points to under 2.5 goals on the banks of the Thames, and after looking at the odds from online betting sites we're backing it with our second Fulham vs Wolves prediction.
Fulham vs Wolves Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals – 31/40 with Betway
Cards galore with Christmas coming up
Only around eight per cent of Premier League matches see both sides receive at least three cards, but one of the meetings of Fulham and Wolves met the criteria last season.
With match referee Michael Salisbury averaging four yellow cards per game across his top flight career (the third most of the current regular Premier League refs), this game could also descend to that level of anarchy.
He showed four last time he was at Craven Cottage, for Fulham’s win over Luton in September while his last Wolves games featured two red cards and eight yellows. Carnage.
That game was back in March, but O’Neil’s side has received more cards than their hosts in every away game this season, by an average of 1.8 per match.
Assuming our first tip is correct, and they have a lead to protect, Wolves will be defending hard for some of the match and could receive the most cards here at odds of 22/25 with Unibet.
Fulham vs Wolves Tip 3: Most Cards: Wolves – 22/25 with Unibet
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
