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Everton vs Nottingham Forest betting tips
- Everton to win – 11/10 BetGoodwin
- Corner handicap: Everton -2 – 7/5 BoyleSports
- Both teams to score: No – 11/10 William Hill
It’s a massive weekend at the foot of the Premier League, with the bottom six teams up against each other.
The match between Sheffield United and Burnley on Saturday afternoon is somewhat academic as football betting sites give neither side a realistic hope of staying up.
More interesting is the clash between Luton and Brentford, which also kicks off at 3pm on Saturday. It’s one of the Hatters’ easier remaining games, and a win would push Nottingham Forest into the bottom three.
Victory would also see Luton leapfrog over Everton, who welcome Nuno Espirito Santo’s side to Goodison Park on Sunday (1:30pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
In a weekend of huge importance at the wrong end of the table, and Sunday's game is arguably the biggest of the three.
Everton vs Nottingham Forest tips: Toffees win through a familiar route
As you would expect from clubs in their position, neither team is in good form.
Everton recently brought a 13-match winless streak to an end with a 1-0 victory over Burnley, but followed that with a 6-0 thumping at Chelsea on Monday night. While not such a dramatic setback, Forest beat Fulham 3-1, only to then lose at Tottenham and draw with Wolves having led.
With the Blues at home, this fixture pits the moveable object against the stoppable force. Since promotion, no ever-present Premier League side has a worse away record than Forest for wins, points, losses, goals scored and conceded.
But aside from the goals allowed, Everton have been the worst home team in the division for those things too.
The obvious thought from a meeting of two sides with this level of ineptitude is that it will be a draw. Indeed, that was the outcome in both meetings last season and the underlying expected goal data suggests no Premier League match this weekend is likelier to end all square either.
However, Everton won the previous meeting 1-0 and there’s reason to believe they can do so again. As poor as their form is, they have only lost one of the last five league matches at Goodison Park, whereas Forest have taken just two points from their last six road trips.
The strengths and weaknesses of the two sides work in the Toffees’ favour too. They have scored 15 Premier League goals from set plays in 2023/24, a total only Arsenal (18) can top, and their winner at the City Ground came via this method.
It’s no surprise that it did, as Forest have conceded a whopping 21 goals from set pieces this term.
There have only been four instances of a club conceding more in the last 14 completed seasons and Sean Dyche will be licking his lips at the thought of his centre backs crowding visiting keeper Matz Sels.
It could be a match for the purists, but Everton may have enough to get over the line and claim three priceless points.
Everton vs Nottingham Forest Tip 1: Everton to win – 11/10 BetGoodwin
Toffees on the corners
Forest concede a lot of goals from dead ball situations in part because they allow so many. Only three teams in the division have given away more corners on the road this season, so Everton are likely to get opportunities that way.
But will the Blues have at least three more corners than the visitors to meet the handicap bet requirement?
Given the way the Tricky Trees have played this season, it could be a worthwhile wager. This selection has been successful in 11 of Forest’s 16 away games this term, including four of the last five, and they have only won the corner count twice.
The bet has not been as profitable for Everton home games, but as it paid out when they hosted Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham, it certainly can when Forest come calling.
After looking on gambling sites, the top price for this bet comes from BoyleSports, who offer 7/5.
Everton vs Nottingham Forest Tip 2: Corner Handicap: Everton -2 – 7/5 with BoyleSports
Don't expect goals galore
As the game is at Goodison Park, if Everton win then it’s likely that the visitors will fail to score.
The Blues’ last 10 home victories in the Premier League have been accompanied by a clean sheet. It’s almost two years since they triumphed on home soil without keeping the visitors to nil.
Three of Everton’s five wins on the road in 2023/24, including at Forest, saw them shut out their opponents too.
There’s also the fact that the 15 league matches Goodison has hosted this season have produced just 34 goals, the fewest of any stadium in the division. While not top of the home standings for matches in which at least one team failed to score, Everton lead the way for games in total.
And let’s be honest, they only beat Burnley 1-0 last time out at home because an attempted clearance from Clarets’ goalkeeper Arijanet Muric hit Dominic Calvert-Lewin and went in.
That match could easily have ended goalless and that has to be a possibility for this game, a clash of two of the five lowest scoring outfits in the Premier League.
Betting apps are optimistic that both teams will find the net in this contest, so there is value in going against them and backing no on the both teams to score market at 11/10 with William Hill.
Everton vs Nottingham Forest Tip 3: Both teams to score: No – 11/10 William Hill
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Last Updated: 20th April 2024, 08:00 AM
