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Everton vs Crystal Palace predictions
- Everton to win by one goal – 5/2 with bet365
- Under 8.5 shots on target – 4/5 with Unibet
- Jarrad Branthwaite over 0.5 shots – 2/1 with bet365
It's all change at Crystal Palace with Roy Hodgson announcing his resignation as manager on the day of a vital relegation encounter against Everton on Monday evening (8pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
Hodgson's departure had been rumoured last week with widespread reports that Palace were ready to replace him with ex-Eintracht Frankfurt manager Oliver Glasner.
The ex-England manager was then taken ill at training on Thursday and spent some time in hospital, quelling talk of his impending sacking.
The Eagles subsequently announced on Monday afternoon that Hodgson had been given the all clear and had decided to call time on his second stint as manager of his boyhood team.
Palace have confirmed Glasner will take over but that Hodgson's assistants Paddy McCarthy and Ray Lewington will take charge of Monday's clash at Goodison Park against Everton.
Everton enter the game in 18th, one point from safety and five points behind Palace, meaning a win for either side will significantly change their outlook at the wrong end of the table.
Football betting sites remain confident the Toffees can get out of trouble, but they need to start picking up victories after a run of seven league games without a win.
Their only victory since the turn of the year came courtesy of a 1-0 FA Cup fourth round replay success against none other than Crystal Palace.
Everton would gladly take another scrappy 1-0 win and the Premier League odds show them as heavy favourites. However, it’s unlikely to be that straightforward given neither side are in any kind of form and both are desperate for points.
Ugly Everton win incoming
The managerial uncertainty at Palace won’t have helped their preparations for such a huge game and how they react to Hodgson’s illness, his departure and the impending arrival of Glasner could have a big say on the outcome.
But based on what we know about the Londoners and their recent performances, there’s little interest in backing the Eagles on gambling sites to get anything from this game.
They produced a spirited showing against Chelsea at home last Monday night but couldn’t hold out for a point, with former loanee Conor Gallagher condemning them to a fourth defeat in the last six league games.
Without by far and away their most talented players, Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze, who are both injured, it’s tough to see how they’ll break down what’s been a solid Everton defence.
Sean Dyche’s side have kept four clean sheets in seven games and that could pose a problem to one of lowest-scoring away attacks in the division.
Palace can be awkward visitors though, as shown when taking four points from their trips to the Etihad Stadium and Old Trafford this season, and Everton shouldn’t be expected to run away with the win.
They’ve only won three times at home in the league all season from 12 games with all three of those victories accompanied by a clean sheet.
A bet on a home win to nil on betting sites is one option, but the history of this fixture pushes us towards backing Everton to win by a one-goal margin instead.
Looking back at the last 20 meetings between the sides, this tends to be a tight fixture with nine of those 20 games ending in a draw. Everton can’t afford that and will be pushing for a win, but they’ve had issues scoring recently, drawing a blank in five of their last eight games in all competitions.
That lack of goalscoring prowess could lead to another scrappy meeting between the pair, akin to their cup clashes, and continue a trend which has seen five of Everton’s nine wins in that 20-game run come by a one-goal margin.
Everton vs Crystal Palace Tip 1: Everton to win by one goal – 5/2 with bet365
Chances at a premium
The major issue both these sides have is chance creation. Everton have been reliant on set pieces recently, with their play in and around the penalty area lacking zip.
Of their 327 shots in the league, just over 30 per cent have hit the target. That’s the third lowest percentage in the top-flight this season.
The absences of Eze and Olise greatly diminish Palace’s ability to open up the opposition, and without those two, it’s tough to see how a side that’s scored 12 away goals all season – joint-third fewest in the league – is going to open up Everton.
The Toffees managed to prevent Manchester City having a shot on target for 71 minutes last week and rank fourth in the league for expected goals against.
Palace have had three shots on target in two of their three previous meetings with Everton this season and have hit the target three times or fewer in 16 of their 28 games in all competitions.
These two sides only managed eight shots on target in Everton’s 3-2 win in the reverse fixture and with tensions much higher now, both teams may take a more cautious approach.
Everton vs Crystal Palace Tip 2: Under 8.5 shots on target – 4/5 with Unibet
Branthwaite a growing threat for Toffees
Palace have been shaky at the back on the road recently, shipping four at Brighton and five at Arsenal, with three of those goals coming from corners.
As Everton showed in their 2-2 draw with Tottenham, they relish the opportunity to put the ball in the back from a set piece situation and cause chaos. Both goals against Spurs started with set pieces, with Jarrad Branthwaite on hand to net a late leveller from a free kick.
That was his first goal of the season from just his 10th shot of the campaign, but even so, the centre-back may be worth looking at on betting apps to have a shot in this game.
The 21-year-old’s production in the opposition penalty area has improved lately, recording five shots in his last 11 games, including one in the FA Cup fourth round replay against Palace.
While his centre back partner James Tarkowski is odds-on to have a shot, Brantwaite’s price of 2/1 may prove the value option in a game where set pieces could be key.
Everton vs Crystal Palace Tip 3: Jarrad Branthwaite over 0.5 shots – 2/1 with bet365
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
