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England vs Australia betting tips:
- Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals – 7/4 with BoyleSports
- Ollie Watkins to score any time - Evens with Betfred
- Over 8.5 corners – 23/20 with Parimatch
Despite their lengthy rivalry in cricket and rugby, the football teams of England and Australia have only met seven times in the past.
It feels fitting in an Ashes year that they should clash and it will be their first ever meeting at Wembley.
The friendly match on Friday evening (7.45pm, Channel 4) is going to be hard to predict. Even though England are all-but qualified for Euro 2024 – football betting sites make them 1/100 at best to be in Germany next summer – their match with Italy next Tuesday night is clearly the tougher fixture.
Gareth Southgate looks likely to give some fringe players a run-out here. He did that the last time the Three Lions opened an international break with a friendly before a competitive match, back in 2020.
Jude Bellingham and Dean Henderson made their international debuts while there were starts for the likes of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Michael Keane and Harry Winks. What will the England manager do here?
Will it be goals galore at Wembley?
The Three Lions don’t have a particularly impressive record against the Socceroos. While they have won four of the seven matches, every victory has been by a single goal and the one defeat was by a 3-1 score line at Upton Park in 2003.
The only meeting since occurred at the Stadium of Light in 2016, as Roy Hodgson’s side warmed up for their dismal Euro 2016 campaign with a 2-1 win.
Marcus Rashford became the youngest England player to score on his debut and an Australia team managed by Ange Postecoglou kept the game fairly even with 48 per cent possession and only one shot fewer than their hosts.
The Three Lions of 2023 are a much sterner prospect. England have won 13 and drawn four of their previous 17 matches at the national stadium, last tasting defeat there three years ago this week.
Their record in friendlies is even more ominous for the visitors, with the Three Lions currently on an 11-game winning streak.
And England should claim another victory here. The problem from our perspective is that the odds for that outcome are not appealing. Let’s look at the goals markets instead.
Southgate’s side only has one clean sheet in their last five matches against teams who were between 20th and 30th in the FIFA rankings on match day, with Australia currently occupying 27th spot.
Similarly, while the Socceroos lost to both France and Argentina at the World Cup last year, they did get on the score sheet both times.
Three of Australia’s four matches in 2023 have paid out on both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, and there’s plenty of reasons to think this game could too.
Tip: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals – 7/4 with BoyleSports
Ollie Watkins to continue hot form
It may be wise to wait until the team news is announced before placing your bets, particularly in the goalscorer markets as there is likely to be a degree of experimentation from Southgate.
With respect to Australia, this is not a prestige friendly as it was against Scotland last time out and rotation looks inevitable.
For instance, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has both started and scored in more of England’s last five friendlies at Wembley than Harry Kane has, with the former Tottenham talisman only in the XI for one of them (a 2-1 victory against Switzerland in March 2022).
One player who started the previous such match was Ollie Watkins, who scored the opening goal when Ivory Coast were beaten 3-0 last year. That was the Aston Villa forward’s last appearance for his country and he hasn’t been included in Southgate’s squad since.
The England manager has recalled Watkins thanks to his electric form. In his last three starts he has scored the winner at Stamford Bridge, bagged a hat-trick against Brighton and assisted the equaliser in a west Midlands derby at Molineux.
This should earn Watkins a start against the Aussies and he could repay Southgate’s faith with a goal.
Corners are worth a look
Matches in international football tend to be light on corners. For instance, none of England’s last five matches have seen more than eight. However, their non-competitive matches have tended to see a little more action on this front.
England have played 10 friendlies at Wembley under Southgate, with those matches seeing an average of 9.1 corners and only fewer than nine twice.
Australia’s four matches this year have seen an average of 7.5, though the last two featured nine and 11 respectively, with their World Cup game against France falling one short of double figures too.
With the Socceroos’ games floating around the eight mark and England’s home friendlies a touch higher, over 8.5 corners is our third and final bet.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
