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Chelsea vs Newcastle predictions
- Newcastle/draw double chance – Evens with BoyleSports
- Both teams to score – 8/11 with William Hill
- Jamaal Lascelles to be shown a card – 29/10 with Unibet
The EFL Cup might have started the season low on the list of priorities for Chelsea and Newcastle, but with the faint whiff of silverware now in the air, Tuesday’s quarter-final clash has taken on added importance for both clubs (8pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
The Blues would have begun the campaign aiming for a top-four finish after another summer of heavy investment in the squad. But 17 games into the season, the west London side are 12 points off fourth and as big as 16/1 in the Premier League odds to claim a Champions League spot.
With no European football on the agenda, going deep in both domestic cup competitions could be key to Mauricio Pochettino impressing the demanding Chelsea hierarchy.
They are second-favourites with football betting sites to win the EFL Cup at 7/2 with Betway and odds-on to see off last season’s runners-up Newcastle.
The games keep on coming for the injury-plagued Magpies, who are desperate to end 68 years without winning major silverware.
They’ve faced a tough road to the last eight, eliminating Manchester City and Manchester United in the last two rounds, and despite their lack of options and away day issues, can’t be discounted against an inconsistent Chelsea side.
Never say die Newcastle eye semi-final spot
Both sides warmed up for Tuesday’s quarter-final encounter with solid home wins on Saturday, Newcastle recording a 3-0 victory over Fulham as Chelsea made it back-to-back home wins in the league by seeing off Sheffield United 2-0.
The last time the Blues won consecutive home league games was in September/October 2022 and visiting teams have enjoyed plenty of success at Stamford Bridge recently.
Chelsea have played 26 home games during a chaotic 2023 and the home fans have only seen their team win nine times, with three of those victories coming in this season’s run to the EFL Cup quarters.
They, therefore, don’t look too appealing at odds-on with betting sites to add Newcastle to their list of conquests in this competition, alongside AFC Wimbledon, Brighton and Blackburn.
Chelsea have lost three of their last five games, a run that includes a 4-1 hammering at St James’ Park in a performance Pochettino described as their worst of the season.
The Argentine coach will want to see a reaction to that defeat and his selection options, albeit still limited by a lengthy injury list, are boosted by having big summer signing Christopher Nkunku available. The France international was an unused substitute against Sheffield United but could be handed a debut from the bench here.
Chelsea’s selection issues pale in comparison to Newcastle’s after they saw Fabian Schar and Joelinton limp out of the win over Fulham at the weekend.
Howe is unsure how long the pair will be out for, but he at least has Sven Botman and Kieran Tripper back for the trip to London, while he’s hopeful Alexander Isak could be involved.
Newcastle’s away form in the league this season has been rotten, losing five of their eight matches and winning only once. However, they’ve been better on the road in the cups.
They won at Old Trafford in the last round of the EFL Cup and recorded credible draws at AC Milan and Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League.
They’ve advanced from five of their last six away ties in the League Cup and are even money with BoyleSports to avoid defeat inside 90 minutes.
Newcastle were vastly superior to Chelsea the last time the sides met and although the change of venue will make a difference, we’re backing them to at least take this tie to extra-time with our first EFL Cup prediction.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Tip 1: Newcastle/draw double chance – Evens with BoyleSports
Duo may combine for Christmas cracker
Chelsea have been heavily reliant on the talents of Cole Palmer to unlock opposition defences this season with his supporting cast largely inconsistent.
Palmer would no doubt like someone to share the workload with and will be delighted to see last season’s top scorer in the Bundesliga, Nkunku, getting geared up for his debut.
How involved Nkunku is on Tuesday remains to be seen, but he may get a crack at a Newcastle defence that’s leaked quite a few goals of late, shipping seven in their last two away matches.
Botman’s return from injury should help them tighten up at the back but not enough to keep out a Chelsea side that’s scored at least twice in five of their last six games at home.
In several of those games, the Blues have needed to score two or more just to get a point out of the game, conceding 10 goals across that run.
Teams have had no issues creating chances against Chelsea and with Callum Wilson recently back from injury for Newcastle, they pose a threat in a game which could feature goals at both ends.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Tip 1: Both teams to score – 8/11 with William Hill
Lascelles liable to bump up card count
November’s meeting between these two was a feisty affair, featuring 10 yellow cards and a red for Reece James, continuing the card-heavy theme for both sides this season.
Newcastle have collected 56 cards in 25 games, while Chelsea have 55 cards from 20 games, so referee Jarred Gillett potentially faces a busy evening.
Gillett isn’t afraid to get his cards out, showing on average five yellows per Premier League game he’s taken charge of this season, while he’s handed out at least six in his last four top flight assignments.
The card total line has been set at 5.5 on betting apps and amongst those who could potentially help push the total towards that number is Newcastle skipper Jamaal Lascelles.
Lascelles scored in the 4-1 win over Chelsea, but also picked up a yellow card, and has four cautions to his name this season.
He’s had eight bookings in his last eight games for the Magpies and is committing, on average, over one foul per game.
While other card candidates for Newcastle have cleaned up their act lately, Lascelles has been in the thick of the action and may have issues against a fluid Chelsea frontline.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Tip 3: Jamaal Lascelles to be shown a card – 29/10 with Unibet
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
