Chelsea vs Manchester United betting tips: Premier League predictions, odds & free bets

Chelsea vs Manchester United predictions

• Over 32.5 total shots – 6/5 with SpreadEx
• Rasmus Hojlund to score any time – 9/5 with BetMGM
• A penalty in the match – 2/1 with bet365

It’s been a case of one step forward, two back for both Chelsea and Manchester United this season as the underperforming duo get set to meet at Stamford Bridge on Thursday (8.15pm, TNT Sports 1).

Gone are the days when this fixture would be a title-decider and neither are happy with their current Premier League position with United’s top four odds on the drift after falling 11 points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa.

Meanwhile, Chelsea are in danger of missing out on Europe altogether for the second season running, dropping to 12th following a 2-2 draw with Burnley at home last weekend.

They'll hope to bounce back against a United side returning to west London just days after escaping with a point from Brentford by the skin of their teeth.

Both results and performances left a lot to be desired, especially after the two sides had enjoyed rousing FA Cup quarter-final wins in their previous games.

Those cup successes now look like the latest false dawns for two clubs going through a transitional phase and trying to pick the outcome of Thursday’s meeting looks extremely treacherous. 

Chelsea are the favourites on football betting sites but haven’t won a league game against United since 2017, while the visitors have a middling away record that features just one more win (7) than defeats.

Instead of trying to negotiate the minefield that is the match markets for this game on gambling sites, our Chelsea vs Manchester United predictions will instead focus on alternative betting options.

Get ready for Stamford Bridge shootout

Not for the first time this season, Chelsea were left to rue their inability to convert chances into goals against 10-man Burnley, firing off 32 shots and registering 4.2 expected goals but failing to take all three points. 

Were the Premier League table based on expected goals, the Blues would be fifth and as Mauricio Pochettino pointed out before the clash with the Clarets, his side should be much higher up the ladder based on analytics. 

But instead they are in the bottom half, 19 points off the top four and eight points worse off than United. 

They could still make a late push for European qualification but will need more than just Cole Palmer’s genius to get them there. 

Palmer scored his 15th and 16th goals of the season against Burnley and has registered a total of 28 goal involvements in his maiden campaign with the Blues. Given Palmer’s form and their ability to create chances, they should trouble a United defence yet again hit by injury. 

Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw and Victor Lindelof are out, while Jonny Evans, Raphael Varane and Harry Maguire have just returned to training. 

Not that whoever has played in front of goalkeeper Andre Onana has made a huge difference to the shot count with Brentford registering 31 attempts on goal in Saturday’s 1-1 draw with the Red Devils.

Only three sides have allowed more shots on goal than Erik ten Hag’s men (495), according to Fbref.com, and attack may be the best form of defence for the visitors. 

Chelsea have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last five outings, four of which have been at Stamford Bridge. They’ve gone 11 games without a clean sheet, albeit that run includes the EFL Cup final when they didn’t concede until extra-time.

When United won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Old Trafford they had 27 attempts on goal in a contest that featured 40 shots in total. 

Chelsea’s clash with Burnley featured a grand total of 50 shots, while Brentford against United saw 42 attempts on goal. 

The total shots market is therefore worthy of consideration and depending on how brave bettors are feeling, they can go up to wagering on over 42.5 shots at 15/2 on certain betting apps.

However, there’ve been some cagey affairs between these two in the past, and that pushes us towards a more conservative total of over 32.5 shots at 6/5 with SpreadEx. It’s a bet that would have landed in 10 of United’s last 11 games in all competitions.

Chelsea vs Manchester United Tip 1: Over 32.5 total shots – 6/5 with SpreadEx

Hojlund back on the goal trail

With this fixture promising plenty of goalmouth action, it could be a good opportunity for Rasmus Hojlund to end his mini drought.

The United forward hasn’t scored since his return from a muscle injury last month, drawing a blank in two appearances for his club side and two outings for Denmark. 

He was in blistering form before his injury though, scoring in six straight league games, and a return of 13 goals in his first season in English football already represents a good return for the 21-year-old.

Five of Chelsea’s last seven league opponents posted an expected goals figure of 1.6 and above in their clashes with the Blues, who have kept one clean sheet in the last seven home meetings with United.

Scott McTominay got both goals for the Red Devils in the reverse fixture and while it’s fun to consider him netting again at 5/1 on betting sites, his attacking numbers have finally started to dip, registering one shot on target in the last five league games.

Hojlund looks more likely to expose Chelsea’s shaky backline and kickstart another run of goals.

Chelsea vs Manchester United Tip 2: Rasmus Hojlund to score any time – 9/5 with BetMGM

Gillett may be put on the spot

No side has won more penalties in the top flight than Chelsea (9) this season with the Blues handed their 11th spot kick in all competitions against Burnley.

Pochettino’s side have also conceded six penalties heading into a fixture that has a history of the referee pointing to the spot. Seven of the last 10 meetings in all competitions have featured at least one penalty and bet365 go 2/1 on that trend continuing.

Referee Jarred Gillett has been assigned this game and does award an above-average number of penalties at 0.31 per game, including giving United one in their 4-3 win over the Wolves in February. 

The Red Devils have won seven penalties and conceded seven this season with Bruno Fernandes missing from the spot in the reverse fixture against Chelsea.

Two mistake-prone defences and two attacks featuring some fleet-footed forwards lay the groundwork for more penalty drama.

Chelsea vs Manchester United tip 3: A penalty in the match – 2/1 with bet365

Free bets for Chelsea vs Man Utd

For those wishing to have a bet on Chelsea vs Man Utd, BoyleSports are running a special mobile exclusive sign-up offer for the game where new users will recieve £20 in free bets, a £10 UK casino bonus and enhanced odds on a Bet Builder.

To qualify, customers will need to open an account using the link below on a mobile device and make an initial deposit of £10 or more. Next, stake a minimum of £10 on a sportsbook selection at odds of evens or greater. 

Once the qualifying bet has been settled, users will receive their £20 in free bets that can be used to bet on any sport and a £10 casino bonus.

As part of this exclusive sign-up offer, new BoyleSports customers will also see the price on Cole Palmer and Marcus Rashford both scoring and over 8.5 corners in Chelsea's clash with United boosted to 6/1.

Before signing up with BoyleSports or any new betting sites, make sure to check the terms and conditions of the welcome offer. If you do have a bet on Chelsea vs Man Utd, please gamble responsibly.