Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
EFL Cup final tips:
- Chelsea draw no bet – 11/8 with Unibet
- Luis Diaz to score or assist at any time – 6/4 with BetVictor
- Enzo Fernandez over 2.5 tackles – 5/4 with bet365
Liverpool can complete the first part of a historic quadruple on Sunday afternoon with victory in the EFL Cup final against an opponent they hammered 4-1 just a few short weeks ago (3pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
Chelsea were no match for the Reds when they met at the end of January, but have shown signs recently of having made the necessary improvements to avoid yet another Wembley loss to Jurgen Klopp’s men.
Liverpool beat Chelsea in both domestic cup finals in the 2021/22 season, extending the Blues’ losing run in Wembley finals to five matches, while they also got the better of the Londoners in the 2019 Uefa Super Cup.
Football betting sites make them underdogs to snap that losing run against the most successful team in EFL Cup history.
Leicester, Bournemouth, West Ham and Fulham have failed to stop Liverpool’s march to a record-extending 10th League Cup, and they’ll no doubt be desperate to deliver silverware in Klopp’s final season in charge.
But the Merseysiders are limping into this final, beset by injury issues, and may find Mauricio Pochettino’s team a far more formidable challenger.
Chelsea have seen off AFC Wimbledon, Brighton, Blackburn, Newcastle and Middlesbrough to reach the first final of the Todd Boehly era, can they now finish the job?
Take a chance on Blues ending Wembley woes
Including the Club World Cup and Uefa Super Cup, Liverpool have been to nine finals under Klopp, winning five of them.
But of those five victories, only two have come inside 90 minutes with penalties needed to see off Chelsea on the three occasions the two sides have contested a trophy decider.
Those penalty shootouts only go to highlight how closely matched the two clubs have tended to be during Klopp’s reign. He’s pitted his wits against a lorry load of Chelsea managers and while he enjoyed some initial success in his 23 games against them, Liverpool have won only two of the last 10 meetings.
Seven of those games have ended all square, making the 4-1 victory over Chelsea last month an outlier. The Reds were rampant that night, while the Blues were truly woeful but history tells us the gap between them won’t be so big on Sunday.
Liverpool could be missing nearly half their starting line-up from that win too with Alisson, Curtis Jones and Diogo Jota recently picking up injuries, while Darwin Nunez and Dominik Szoboszlai are doubts.
With Trent Alexander-Arnold, Joel Matip and Thiago also unavailable, Klopp’s options are limited. He should at least have Mohamed Salah available, even though he sat out Wednesday’s 4-1 win over Luton, a game that may have taken something out of the Reds as they came from behind to beat the Hatters.
In contrast, Chelsea have had over a week to prepare for the final since securing a creditable point in a 1-1 draw at Manchester City.
City passed up opportunities to win that game, but it was still a decent showing from Pochettino’s men as they stretched their unbeaten run to three games in all competitions.
It’s perhaps too early to say that we are finally starting to see the best of this expensively assembled Chelsea team, but since losing to Wolves at home, they seem to have stepped it up a notch.
An improvement in the Blues’ attitude was perhaps all that was missing, given Chelsea’s underlying number suggest they should be far closer to Liverpool in the Premier League table than the current 25-point gap.
Chelsea have the fifth-best expected goals total and expected goals per game figures in the top flight, and in the likes of Cole Palmer, Christopher Nkunku and Enzo Fernandez, they have big game match-winners in their midst.
It's players like that against a depleted Liverpool team that could make backing the Blues the value bet for the final.
Chelsea will need something special to inflict what would be Liverpool’s third domestic defeat of the season and backing them in the draw no bet market on gambling sites offers a bit of insurance in case these two can’t be separated after 90 minutes for the fourth final in a row.
Chelsea vs Liverpool Tip 1: Chelsea draw no bet – 11/8 with Unibet
Diaz a danger to Chelsea
Both finals between these sides in the 21/22 season finished goalless, helping to maintain a recent trend of low-scoring EFL Cup finals.
Only one of the last five finals has produced over 2.5 goals, but there’s the potential for these two to conjur a little more excitement on this occasion.
There’s no shortage of potential goalscorers when looking at the markets on betting apps, and one name that jumps out is the in-form Luis Diaz.
The Colombian netted his 10th of the season in the win over Luton and has now had a hand in six goals across his last seven appearances for Liverpool.
He registered a goal and an assist against Chelsea the last time the sides met, while he was also on target in the 1-1 draw between the teams on the opening weekend of the season.
Given the doubts that hang over Liverpool’s other attacking options and his recent contributions, Diaz looks poised to have a big day at Wembley.
Chelsea vs Liverpool Tip 2: Luis Diaz to score or assist at any time – 6/4 with BetVictor
Feisty Fernandez can make final impact
Chelsea haven’t had great value for money from their £106.8 million signing Fernandez so far, but there have been a few more positive signs of late.
The Argentine has scored two goals in his last three games, including a stunning free kick against Aston Villa, and there are finally signs of a partnership forming between the energetic midfielder and Moises Caicedo.
It’s early days in that relationship, but Fernandez has been busier of late and is the kind of player that can raise his game for a final. After all, we are a little over 12 months removed from him winning the World Cup with Argentina.
In that final against France, he put in a massive 10 tackles. He hasn’t got anywhere near that number for Chelsea but he has been getting stuck in a bit more recently, registering at least three tackles in four of his last five league appearances for the Blues.
Fernandez looks like he could be in the thick of the action in Sunday’s final and could go over his tackle line on betting sites, with bet365 going 5/4 he makes three or more challenges.
Chelsea vs Liverpool Tip 3: Enzo Fernandez over 2.5 tackles – 5/4 with bet365
Get free bets by betting on EFL Cup final
Parimatch are one of the best new betting sites because of their strong welcome offers and new customers can bag £30 in free bets just by betting £5 on the EFL Cup final this Sunday.
All you have to do is open an account here or click the link below and deposit into your new account. Proceed to place a bet of £5 or more on Chelsea vs Liverpool at odds of evens or greater.
The qualifying bet must be placed by 3pm on Sunday. Once this bet has been settled, you'll be rewarded with three £10 free bets - one of which will be for any in-play market on Chelsea vs Liverpool.
The second £10 free bets will be eligible on football accumulators with four or more selections and the final free bet will be valid on any Premier League market, though you won't receive this credit until three days after your qualifying stake has been settled.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
