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Chelsea vs Leeds predictions
- Leeds +1.25 Asian handicap – 41/50 with bet365
- Jaidon Anthony over 1.5 shots – 10/11 with William Hill
- Chelsea to receive most cards – 2/1 with Unibet
Chelsea will need to pick themselves up quickly from their EFL Cup final loss to Liverpool if they are to avoid more cup disappointment, this time at the hands of historic rivals Leeds on Wednesday (7.30pm, ITV4).
The Blues let a golden opportunity to win silverware slip through their grasp at Wembley on Sunday, missing several good chances in the second half before being undone in extra-time by the Reds.
But there’s no time for Mauricio Pochettino’s men to wallow as they face Leeds in the FA Cup fifth round at Stamford Bridge.
The FA Cup is now Chelsea’s only chance of winning a trophy this season and could also be their best means of qualifying for Europe if their Premier League form doesn’t improve.
Football betting sites make them favourites to advance to the quarter-finals, but Leeds are arguably the form side in the country right now having won their last nine Championship matches in a row, part of a 12-game unbeaten run in all competitions.
Daniel Farke’s men beat Championship leaders Leicester City on Friday to stay second in the table and have given themselves a great shot at bouncing back to the top flight at the first time of asking.
Promotion is the main aim for the Whites, but that doesn’t mean they won't give Chelsea a scare in what’s a vital match in the context of the Blues’ season.
Leeds to hold their own at the Bridge
Chelsea are one of five sides with single-figure prices in the FA Cup odds as they chase a ninth victory in a competition they last won in 2018.
Since then, they’ve lost the last six domestic finals they’ve contested with Sunday’s defeat to Liverpool the latest addition to their ongoing Wembley woes.
Bouncing back from that EFL Cup defeat will be a huge test of the character for Pochettino’s men, but online bookmakers seem confident they’ll pass it based on the odds for this game.
Granted they’ve already seen off Championship opposition at home in both cup competitions this season, beating Preston 4-0 in the FA Cup third round, while they eased past Blackburn and Middlesbrough in the EFL Cup.
They also produced arguably their best performance of the season in their FA Cup fourth round replay at Aston Villa, running out convincing 3-1 winners.
But the circumstances are very different for this tie. Pochettino admits he has a lot of tired bodies in his squad while he's also lost Christopher Nkunku to yet another injury. The Frenchman joins seven other players on the shelf, while Thiago Silva is a doubt.
The atmosphere could be a little flat at Stamford Bridge too, except for the 5,366 away fans, who will fancy their chances of witnessing Leeds’ first away win at Chelsea this millennium.
They are right to feel confident given the Whites’ recent results. Leicester’s goal last Friday was the first Leeds had conceded in six league games, with no Championship side keeping more clean sheets than Farke’s men.
Going forward, they’ve scored 12 goals across their last four games, a worry for a Chelsea team that doesn’t tend to keep too many clean sheets.
But for those thinking about taking the 6/1 gambling sites are offering on a Leeds win, it’s worth taking note of Farke’s pre-match press conference.
The German made it clear he wouldn’t take any risks with players that aren’t 100 per cent fit, calling into question the participation of attacking quartet Georginio Rutter, Patrick Bamford, Crysencio Summerville and Dan James, who all have knocks.
There could be changes elsewhere with Farke keen to keep his players fresh with Leeds facing a run of three Championship games in the space of seven days from Saturday.
But any alterations don’t totally kill off the chances of an upset given the confidence flowing through the Leeds squad right now and they are worth considering in handicap markets.
Leeds +1.25 on the Asian handicap is 41/50 with bet365. For the bet to win outright, Leeds need to avoid defeat. If they lose by one goal, it will be classed as a half win with half your stake winning at the 41/50 odds, and the other half of your stake refunded. If Chelsea win by two or more, the bet loses.
This is a bigger game for Chelsea than it is for Leeds, but it's hard to imagine the Blues running away with the victory given the quality of the opponent and the impact of Sunday’s loss.
Chelsea vs Leeds Tip 1: Leeds +1.25 Asian handicap – 41/50 with bet365
Anthony not afraid to have a go
Trying to predict the Leeds starting line-up is a bit tricky, but it is expected that Jaidon Anthony will come in should Summerville miss out.
He’s not had all that many opportunities to start this season but he has been in the first XI for all three of Leeds’ FA Cup games this season.
In those three starts – one against Peterborough in round three, two against Plymouth in the fourth round – he’s been very active in and around the opposition penalty area.
He’s amassed 13 shots in those games and only two Leeds players have averaged more shots per 90 minutes in the league than Anthony’s average of 3.63.
Chelsea are middle of the pack for shots allowed this season and Anthony could have some joy in a Leeds team that is likely to have a go at the hosts.
Chelsea vs Leeds Tip 2: Jaidon Anthony over 1.5 shots – 10/11 with William Hill
Card-happy Coote back at Chelsea
The news referee David Coote has been assigned this game won’t improve the mood amongst the home fans with the official having overseen a defeat and a draw for the Blues previously this season.
He also handed out 11 yellow cards to Chelsea across those two games and there’s the potential for him to rile up the Blues supporters once more on Wednesday.
Coote has averaged over five yellow cards per game in the Premier League and Championship this season, and no top flight side has collected more cards than Chelsea.
Leeds are at the complete opposite end of the spectrum in the second tier with the second-fewest cards to their name.
It seems unlikely the Whites will make this a recreation of the two sides' infamous 1970 FA Cup final, but Chelsea may try to roll back the years and could end up collecting more cards.
Chelsea vs Leeds Tip 3: Chelsea to receive most cards – 2/1 with Unibet
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
