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Chelsea vs Aston Villa predictions
- Chelsea win and over 2.5 goals – 21/10 with William Hill
- Over 10.5 corners – 13/8 with BoyleSports
- Aston Villa Over 2.5 Cards – Evens with bet365
Chelsea fans who love an omen will welcome the visit of Aston Villa on Friday evening for a fourth round FA Cup tie (7.45pm).
These sides last met in this competition in the 2010 semi-final, with Chelsea winning 3-0 on their way to clinching a Premier League and cup double. Prior to that they met in the 2000 final, the last at the original Wembley, and won 1-0.
A cup double is very much in play with Chelsea advancing to the final of the EFL Cup with a 6-1 defeat of Middlesbrough on Tuesday evening, winning 6-2 on aggregate.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side are fourth favourites to win the FA Cup this season, according to football betting sites but Villa have an excellent recent record at Stamford Bridge and will have silverware aspirations of their own after such a strong campaign.
Hosts to win an entertaining game
These teams last met in September, with an Ollie Watkins goal giving the Villans a 1-0 win in west London.
He also scored in the corresponding fixture last season, as did John McGinn, and with a 1-1 draw in the Carabao Cup preceding that 2-0 victory (albeit Chelsea won on penalties), Villa haven’t lost at the Bridge since September 2021.
Yet despite the recent head-to-head history and Unai Emery’s side being 12 points better off in the Premier League table, UK betting sites expect Chelsea to win.
A look at the underlying stats for both teams this season and Villa’s recent trips to the Bridge explain why. The expected goal (xG) data for 2023/24 suggests Chelsea should have four more points than the visitors, for starters.
The Blues have the highest average chance quality in the top flight yet only Manchester United and Everton have converted a lower proportion of their xG.
Chelsea’s last two home games with Villa were classic examples of this issue, as they failed to score from a combined 3.7 expected goals when the visitors bagged three goals from 1.6 xG.
With World Cup winning goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez coming to town, these issues could easily hamper the home side once again.
However, with eight different players scoring a total of 13 goals in their last four home matches – albeit 10 were against Championship opposition – confidence should be high in the Chelsea squad. It can carry the Blues into round five with a win in 90 minutes.
Having only failed to score three times on the road this season, there is a strong possibility that Villa will find the net. But either way, with Chelsea’s improved finishing and continued chance creation there should be over 2.5 goals, so tie that in to a home win to improve the odds on gambling sites.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Tip 1: Chelsea win and over 2.5 goals – 21/10 with William Hill
Corners could prove decisive
Set plays could play a big part in determining the outcome of this match. Only four teams in the Premier League have conceded more set piece goals than Chelsea and Aston Villa this season, and three of them are in the bottom five of the table.
If there are to be goals scored in dead ball situations there will need to be plenty of free-kicks and corners. There tend to be lots of the latter when these teams meet.
Seven of their nine league meetings since the summer of 2019 have featured at least 11 corners, including all five clashes at Stamford Bridge in that time. These games saw an average of 12.6 and there was also 12 in a EFL Cup game in west London in 2021.
Only five teams in the 2023/24 Premier League have seen fewer matches pay out on over 11.5 corners than Chelsea and Villa, so their head-to-head history goes somewhat against their regular form.
With set plays so important and neither team wanting a replay, there’s the possibility this will be a frenetic contest. But we’ll err on the side of caution by backing over 10.5 corners rather than 11.5.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Tip 2: Over 10.5 corners – 13/8 with BoyleSports
Cards galore for Villa
It seems feasible that there could be a lot of yellow cards in this match too.
The man in charge is Rob Jones and only two of the current Premier League referees with at least as many matches as him average more cards per game in the competition. Since the start of last season, Jones has shown 4.2 yellows per match in the English top flight.
These teams see a lot of cards too. Chelsea’s matches have seen the most cards per game in the division in 2023/24 (5.8) with Villa third in the standing (5.2). The last three meetings at Stamford Bridge all saw at least five cards, and that’s the average for the last six clashes too.
It makes sense to focus on the visitors having over 2.5 cards when examining betting apps. This bet has paid out for Villa in their last lsix Premier League matches and previous five on the road, as well as in their last three trips to Stamford Bridge.
Emery’s boys love to take gamesmanship as far as they can. Martinez led the league for cautions for timewasting last season and only Anthony Taylor punished the offence more than Jones. All the signs point towards the Villans collecting three or more cards, available at even-money with bet365.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Tip 3: Aston Villa over 2.5 cards – Evens with bet365
Free bet offers for Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Chelsea against Aston Villa is one of the standout ties in the fourth round and for those looking at the FA Cup odds with a view to having a wager on Friday’s game, make sure to check if you are eligible for a free bet.
BetVictor are currently offering new customers £40 in free bets to wager on football when they open an account. To qualify, bettors must sign up for an account, make a deposit via debit card or Apple Pay and then place a first bet of £10 or more on any football market at odds of evens (2.0) or greater.
The £40 in free bets can then be used to wager on the FA Cup, or any other football markets, while customers will also have access to BetVictor’s UK casino after joining.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
